Thursday, March 2, 2017

The "Rolling Quiet For Quiet" policy has been followed by a generation of Israeli Governments, but...

...Unfortunately, the real issue that cries out for examination in the wake of Operation Protective Edge is being ignored.

Dr. Aaron Lerner..
IMRA Weekly Commentary..
01 March '17..

Unfortunately, the real issue that cries out for examination in the wake of Operation Protective Edge is being ignored.

That's the "Rolling Quiet For Quiet" policy that's been followed by a generation of Israeli Governments.

It goes like this:

Step #1: Under a "quiet for quiet" our enemy can make any and all preparations to attack us as long as he doesn’t shoot at us in the meantime.

Clarification: Israel can try to interdict or destroy weapons before they reach Gaza or Southern Lebanon. But once the weapons have reached their destination, Israel will not attempt to destroy them no matter what the weapons may be.

Step #2: Once "quiet for quiet" is violated to the point that an Israeli operation is required, Israel will engage in a military operation whose primary goal is to restore the "quiet for quiet" arrangement.

Clarification: While this operation may entail considerable damage to the enemy's infrastructure, the goal of the operation is not to in any way prevent the enemy from restoring its military capabilities in the "quiet for quiet" period that follows the operation. In point of fact, the expectation is that ultimately the enemy will get stronger with each round.

Question: What is the efficacy of this policy?

Critical assumption: This policy relies on the assumption that during each "quiet for quiet" period, Israel's capabilities improve significantly more than the enemy's capabilities improve.

Problem: There is, unfortunately, no indication that the policy makers and the defense establishment have seriously thought through this critical matter.

These are people who "knew there were tunnels but weren't aware of what Hamas would do with them".

These are people who today think at one and the same time that Hamas plans to use to tunnels to murder a bunch of kibbutz members and then turn around and note that the tunnels don't end under kibbutzim.

We cannot afford to continue with this "yihye bseder" (it will be ok) policy.

We need a serious and honest evaluation.

We need some of the best and brightest to take the role of "red teams" . Thinking and planning what they would do if they were Hamas and if they were Hezbollah.

Only then can we get close to appreciating the ramifications of this policy.

We simply cannot continue "Rolling Quiet For Quiet" without seriously studying its efficacy.

IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis: Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on Arab-Israeli relations

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