Sunday, September 9, 2018

Oslo - Avarice, Hubris, and Secular Messianism - by Dr. Aaron Lerner

In many respects, Palestinian impatience saved us. A few years without terror would have easily facilitated the establishment of a sovereign Palestinian state that by now could have served as a strategic bridgehead in a multi-front conflict to destroy us.

Dr. Aaron Lerner..
IMRA Weekly Commentary..
08 September '18..
Link: http://www.imra.org.il/story.php3?id=73354

As we mark 25 years to Oslo it is useful to recall three key drivers behind what became known as the Oslo Process: Avarice, Hubris and Secular Messianism.

Avarice:

First and foremost the establishment of a Palestinian autonomy was an opportunity to make money. Besides the assignment of monopolies (for example gasoline supplies) there was development money as well as other economic activity.

Ministers and MKs in Prime Minister Rabin's ruling coalition, as well as MKs considering crossing the floor, saw themselves either receiving "consideration" for helping others get a piece of the action or as silent partners.

There were also security officials who took a key role in negotiations with the Palestinians who split their time with their Palestinian colleagues between hammering out security details and discussing joint ventures in anticipation of their retirements.

The "peace business" also became a source of easy money for academics and others engaged in promoting support the Oslo Process.

All of this served to taint their judgment.

Hubris:

The Oslo Process was driven by the working assumption that regardless of the lines drawn or the conditions set, the IDF could always come up with "appropriate security arrangements".

There was a darker side to this hubris. One frequently heard from "realistic" Oslo Process supporters that they expected Oslo to fail, but that the failure would be so profound that it would lead to a conflict during which Israel would have the moral justification, and the means, to kick the the Arabs out of the West Bank and Gaza Strip.


Secular Messianism:

There were also hardore Oslo Process supporters genuinely believed that once Israel would withdraw to the '67 lines that some kind of utopian peace would prevail. Post-withdrawal security concerns were thus not truly relevant but instead documents only for the record. A necessary nuisance to placate the nonbelievers.

Besides the above, perhaps the one of the biggest problems with the Oslo Process was the typical Israeli shallowness.

Most ministers, MKs, talking heads and journalists who could jabber for days about Oslo consistently declined to invest the time to read any of the series of documents created by the process.

It distresses me to write that over the course of the last quarter century I talked with many Palestinian officials who could "chapter and verse" the various agreements while their Israeli counterparts were clueless of the details of what they themselves voted to approve.

In many respects, Palestinian impatience saved us.

A few years without terror would have easily facilitated the establishment of a sovereign Palestinian state that by now could have served as a strategic bridgehead in a multi-front conflict to destroy us.
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IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis: Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on Arab-Israeli relations
Website: www.imra.org.il

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