Weekly Commentary: No confidence a temporary freeze would be temporary

Dr. Aaron Lerner Date: 9 July 2009

In the absence of an official written statement released by U.S. President
Obama setting a clear unconditional time limit to a "temporary" settlement
freeze it is reasonable to expect that any "temporary" freeze the Netanyahu
team agrees to could very well become permanent.

There is every reason to expect the Obama team, given their track record to
date, to insist that conditions have been met to extend the freeze.

And if Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu feels that the pressure today
forces him to agree to a "temporary" freeze there is every reason in the
world to expect the White House to turn the screws even tighter to extend
it.

And then the very same "senior Israeli officials" who no doubt will swear in
background briefings that the freeze is temporary will then dutifully
explain the decision to extend the freeze.

After all, once the freeze is in place there will always be more than enough
reasons to justify extending it:

- Relations are good with the Obama administration, why harm them by
renewing construction?

- Relations are strained with the Obama administration, why make things
worse by renewing construction?

[The above two arguments have been used for years, by the way, by prime
ministers explaining why they decline to seriously act for Jonathan Pollard's
release - relations are either too good or too bad.]

- Progress is being made with the Palestinians, why undermine them by
renewing construction?

- The impasse with the Palestinians would be exacerbated by a renewal of
construction, plunging the area into crisis and conflict as "moderate" Abbas
would be forced by the move to support "resistance" in order to maintain his
"legitimacy".

And the list goes on.

Yes, PM Menachem Begin agreed to a temporary freeze.

But, then again, confusion over its details lead to a crisis with
Washington.

And while no U.S. administration has ever accepted the legitimacy of
settlement construction, this one has apparently decided that of all the
problems in the world - from nuclear Korea and Iran to Darfur and beyond -
the greatest international problem facing the United States today is
settlement construction.

Yes, the pressure is great.

But please don't insult our intelligence with assurances that a freeze is
"temporary".
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