Observation: Why President Mubarak Must Verify Shalit Is Alive

Dr. Aaron Lerner

Date: 8 July, 2009

I do not know on what basis the Egyptian President said Shalit is alive.

Hamas spokesman Al-Mizeini to Maan news agency 8 July 2009

Almost from day one, the formula for the release of Gilad Shalit from captivity in Gaza involved a series of Israeli "payments" with some terrorists being released before Shalit was moved to Egypt, another group as he left Egypt and the release of a third and final group upon Shalit's return to Israel.

Hamas officials refuse to confirm that Shalit is alive. In fact, they suggest he may have died during the course of the IDF operations in Gaza.

Why should it matter to Egyptian President Mubarak?

Here is his problem: A repeat of Israel's trade of live terrorists for bodies with Hezbollah. Except this time, there is a casket being broadcast live on television but instead of being on the way to Israel, it's on the way to Cairo.

So Mubarak finds himself holding onto an Israeli body in trust. And he is only supposed to release the body in return for the release of many very live terrorists.

And the Israeli public - and most of the politicians - is up in arms. They are calling on Mubarak to forget about the deal since it was made on the assumption that Shalit was alive and send Shalit home to be buried in peace.

And Hamas, grinning broadly, says that "a deal is a deal" and warns Mubarak that, as an honest broker, he doesn't have the right to break the deal. Does President Mubarak really want to risk finding himself stuck with Gilad Shalit stored in a morgue in Cairo for the next decade?

I don't think so.

So the message to Mubarak is clear: he must insist that his own representative see Shalit face-to-face. Anything less than that and he could be very well sucking himself into a no win situation that will permanently blot his place in the history books.