Is Jordan next in line?

Op-ed: Topping of King Abdullah’s regime in Amman may have positive implications for Israel

Ron Breiman
Israel Opinion/Ynet
Published: 02.07.11, 12:20

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4025025,00.html

The riots taking place in the Arab world in general, and in Egypt in particular, may create a new Middle East, and not in the delusional respect marketed by Shimon Peres and the other Oslo proponents, but rather, in a realistic and threatening way. Even if the current Egyptian regime survives the current crisis, it will clearly not last long given Mubarak’s advanced age and the upcoming presidential elections.

Hence, Israel should not be caught off guard. It must take into account the possibility of a different reality on its southern border, growing transfer of weapons to the Gaza Strip, the easing of infiltration by “refugees” into Israel in the aims of weakening it, and mostly, possible violation of the Sinai demilitarization agreement.

Israel must prepare for all these developments in advance, on the basis of a sober risk assessment. The decision on how to respond in case of Egyptian military deployment in the Sinai must be taken today, not when the risk is materialized.

If the unrest in our region gravely harmed a powerful regime like Mubarak’s, it may certainly cause grave harm to weaker regimes, such as King Abdullah’s in Jordan. The official Israel views it as a danger, yet as it has no power to prevent the boiling over of riots from Egypt to Jordan, Jerusalem prefers to keep its head in the sand and be surprised if and when Amman ends up looking like Cairo.

The destabilization of the Jordanian regime will change the realities of our life and its implications may be even more tangible than those of the process in Egypt. The takeover of power by the people east of the Jordan River, even if it is accompanied by the support of radical, hostile forces, does not depend on Israel. At the same time, we would do well to rid ourselves of the dominant doctrine in Israel and also see the glass half full in respect to such possible development.



An end to delusions

And so, for example, those who see danger in the presence of Iran-supported forces “on the fence” beyond the River, may reconsider the danger inherent in the presence of these forces on the “security” fence in the heart of the western Eretz Yisrael, in case we see the establishment of a state for our enemy in the framework of the “peace process.”

Those who have already given up on the peace objective, and only wish to see the establishment of a state for the Palestinians, who seemingly are stateless, would not be able to cling to this false argument after the Palestinian majority (more than 90%) gains democratic expression in Amman, the capital of Jordan-Palestine.

Those who would open their eyes and see their dream of a Palestinian state being realized would be able to reconsider the folly of the “two-state solution” west of the Jordan, and demand voting rights for the western Eretz Yisrael Arabs in the Palestinian parliament east of the River.

Those who have already given up on the peace objective, and only wish to see Jews being expelled from their homes in their country just because they’re Jewish (did we already mention racism?) will have to give up the transfer dream, because a Palestinian state would already exist. As opposed to my leftist friends who espouse expulsion, I reject the expulsion of any person – Jewish or Arab – from his home for the sake of “peace” or even peace.

Those who called for the establishment of a state for our enemy west of the Jordan in order to see the rise of “moderate” Arab states against Iran would have to end these delusions. This also pertains to Barack Hussein Obama. Those who called for handing over the Golan to Syria in exchange for its departure from the axis of evil would have to do away with this false perception when the “peace-signaling” regime of the tyrant from Damascus also falls.

To sum up: The new (and old) Middle East is a dangerous region. However, human beings are able to live under conditions of danger as well, should they identify the risks in advance, properly asses their implications, and decide in advance on the appropriate means for minimizing these risks.

Dr. Ron Breiman is the former chairman of Professors for a Strong Israel


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