Egypt: The Turning Point, The Regime's Plan on What to Do Next

Barry Rubin
The Rubin Report
01 February '11

In 1978 and 1979 I followed the Iranian revolution on a daily and hourly basis. Even before the hostage crisis, recognizing the importance of this event, I began work on a book. The title? Paved with Good Intentions. This came from the expression, "The road to Hell is paved with good intentions."

This is precisely might be what is happening now. Out of "good intentions," the United States is headed--though I hopes it can still be averted--the biggest catastrophe in the history of its relations with the Middle East. Thirty years after Iran's revolution produced a similar situation, nothing has been learned by U.S. policymakers. Nothing.

Let me be clear: Removing Mubarak is NOT the problem. There is little doubt that he will lose power personally, something that would have happened within months any way given his age. The most hated and corrupt figures will flee the country.

The question is whether the regime--the current system--will survive. As of this moment (for reasons you can read four paragraphs down) I believe that the regime that has ruled Egypt for 59 years is finished. Is that a good thing? Well, it depends on what happens.

It is not inevitable that the Muslim Brotherhood will take over. Even the Brotherhood doesn't want that in the near future. It is far more likely, though, that Egypt would become a radical, anti-American state perhaps with some restraint (see point 1, below). The army will play a critical role one way or the other.

But nobody should neglect the reality of public opinion. Here's a report direct from the massive demonstration in Cairo today by a friend interviewing people there:

Demonstrators in Tahrir Square are increasingly saying this is not a fight against Mubarak. This is a fight against Israel and the United States whose interests he's implementing.

But, many will say, isn't it the fault of these countries for supporting Mubarak? The answer is: And would the situation be better if they had never done so? At any rate, it is January 2011 and, like it or not, one has to deal with the existing reality.

(Read full "Egypt: The Turning Point, The Regime's Plan on What to Do Next")

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