The Road To Mideast War

Herbert I. London
Hudson New York
07 June '10

Recently the Obama administration gave Moscow two concessions that could have a harmful influence on the course of current history: lifting sanctions against the Russian military complex, and agreeing not to ban the sale of advanced anti-aircraft batteries to Iran.

Presumably these concessions were given as "carrots," after Russia agreed to a package of United Nations' sanctions against Iran. While the U.N. resolution bans weapons sales to Tehran, it would not prohibit Moscow from completing the sale of S-300 anti-aircraft missiles to Teheran, a contract that was suspended due to pressure from the U.S. and Israel, but not cancelled. This sophisticated defensive system -- surface-to-air missiles that could can bring down any incoming projectile -- would totally nullify any military option that Israel -- or any other country -- might wish to take against Iran's nuclear facilities.

These concessions, the latest moves by President Obama to bolster U.S.-Russian relations, might be considered an adjunct to the START agreement on nuclear delivery systems. Administration spokesmen, however, said this understanding was not a quid pro quo for Russian acceptance of sanctions against Iran, a denial that seems inconsistent with the timing of the decision.

Most significantly, the concessions are "premature and unwarranted," according to former State Department official David Kramer. A Russian transfer to Iran of anti-missile systems is far more significant than further sanctions. John Bolton, former acting Ambassador to the United Nations, argued that the Russians got the upper hand. They sensed desperation on the Obama team and, he said, "extracted all that the traffic would bear."

If the Russians do deliver the S-300 missiles - now that the U.S. has granted them a green light - Israel will be placed in an untenable position. Israel might feel compelled to attack before the system is employed, or else be obliged to consider more losses than in any raid. For months, Israeli diplomats have been shuttling to Moscow in an effort to prevent this agreement. Now the U.S. - Israel's presumptive ally - has undermined, and perhaps even thwarted, the Israeli military option.

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