A Syria in minor key

Tony Badran
NOW Lebanon
29 June '10

The strategic vacuum the United States is leaving in the Middle East is creating a dangerously unstable situation, arguably similar to the one immediately preceding the 1967 Arab-Israeli war. This is characterized by a void in regional leadership and a disengaged Washington incapable of dictating regional dynamics.

While Iran has been seen to be challenging the US order for a while now, it is currently common knowledge that Turkey is also pushing to fill the vacuum and carve out for itself a dominant position in the Ottomans’ former Middle Eastern domains. But where does the rise of these middle powers leave second-tier Arab countries like Syria, which has long claimed to be a vital regional player?

Some have suggested that a Turkish-Iranian balance of power would stabilize the region by containing Iranian influence. The test case they offer is Syria. A popular argument is that an ascendant Turkey that pulls Syria toward it would lead to better Syrian-Turkish economic integration and greater political moderation in Damascus.

This is a faulty reading. In reality, as Turkey and Iran assert themselves, Syria is again falling back into its historical role as the land between greater powers to its east, north and south. With that, its claim of a key regional role loses its credibility, both in political and economic terms. Yet for the regime of President Bashar al-Assad, projecting an over-inflated image of itself is essential. That is why Assad has been painting a grandiose picture of his regime’s central place in the so-called new regional order, built around the supposed alignment of Turkey, Iran, Syria and perhaps Iraq.

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