[Confused identity] COS Ashkenazi support deal with Assad - appears to trust him

Dr. Aaron Lerner
IMRA
15 November 09

Dr. Aaron Lerner - IMRA

Pop quiz: Who is Gabi Ashkenazi?

(1) A Kadima back bencher in the Knesset who previously served in a high position in the IDF?

(2) An analyst in the Foreign Ministry?

(3) Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff

Let's look at the argument Gabi Ashkenazi raises for making a deal with Assad:

"We should not be disheartened by Assad," he said during private conversations. The defense establishment has been steadily in favor of resuming talks with Syria. A source present in meetings where Ashkenazi spoke said that the chief of staff explained that "Israel has a strategic interest in disassociating Syria from the extremist axis that Iran is leading."

"Syria is not lost," Ashkenazi declared. "Assad is western educated and is not a religious man. He can still join a moderate grouping."

Is this military analysis?

No.

It's at best the kind of pop-psychology that might be acceptable in the working paper of some junior analyst at the Foreign Ministry.

But it has absolutely nothing to do with his area of expertise.

And so here is the real question to lose sleep over: Will the fact that Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi apparently thinks that handing over the Golan to Assad will make him a "moderate" and not consider attacking Israel ever in the future, influence the analysis that he actually is being paid to do: analyze the efficacy of security arrangements being considered in the course of diplomatic discussions regarding the Golan?

Because if when Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi prepares the analysis he is thinking at the same time that Syria will never attack if we would hand over the Golan he might be tempted to tinker with the analysis in order to insure that Israeli security demands don't get in the way of "peace in our time."

Impossible?

Hardly.

Consider all the brass who signed off on absurd security arrangements under Oslo.]
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