Gabriel Siboni
Haaretz
15 November 09
The latest appeal by Syrian President Bashar Assad to renew negotiations with Israel, and statements on his people's readiness for peace, have once again brought peace talks with Damascus to the forefront.
The eager response by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, President Shimon Peres and Defense Minister Ehud Barak, who expressed their willingness to enter negotiations without preconditions as soon as possible, amply demonstrates how Assad is getting to eat the cake and have it too.
Syria has been brought back from the political cold only after indirect talks with Israel via Turkey were revealed. These talks gave the Syrian regime legitimacy, even though Syria continued on as a loyal member of the radical bloc. The talks boosted the ostracized regime, and the full extent of the strategic damage they have caused to Israel has yet to be fully understood. Syria was and is a disturber of regional balance, as American forces coping with its attempts to destabilize Iraq can testify.
Assad has several personal achievements of this kind to his credit: Syrian involvement in the assassination of Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri is well-known; Syria is developing chemical weapons of mass-destruction, and has tried to set up a nuclear reactor to achieve military nuclear capability.
Terrorist organizations over the years have found Syria to be a convenient and helpful host. Syria's deep involvement in Lebanon and its part in delivering advanced weapon systems to Hezbollah increase Lebanese instability, while providing backing for increased Iranian involvement. All these demonstrate how deeply Assad is implicated in the radical axis.
Some say that pulling Syria out of the Axis of Evil will improve Israel's overall strategic balance. But closer heed must be paid to the Syrian president's words. To him, peace with Israel means Israeli retreat from the Golan, while he maintains his strategic connection to Iran and other rogue states. Past experience shows that rapprochement attempts by Israel and parts of the international community don't make him moderate his positions, but rather convince him to believe he can have everything both ways.
Israeli decision-makers need to fundamentally review Israel's real interest in regard to Syria, while neutralizing the kind of strategic discourse that was relevant 30 years ago but is now hopelessly outdated.
The enemy, having realized it cannot conquer Israel, has chosen the path of resistance and attrition, with the aim of exhausting Israelis in the long run. This change proves the irrelevance of giving away assets in exchange for security arrangements and guarantees, demilitarization and the like.
A true peace agreement with Syria can only be discussed after Syria undergoes a profound and fundamental change. The desire to please the Damascus regime and go into talks will not help bring about such change.
Assad, whose supreme interest is preserving the Alawi reign, has a lot to lose. Israel must reach a strategic agreement with the American administration on the fundamental conditions for talks with Syria.
The first among them should be separation from the radical axis and from radical ideology. Syria, deep in the throes of an economic crisis and located in a problematic geo-strategic position, must choose a new path before peace talks can begin. Right now, Assad's haughty attitude is like he is living in a glass house and throwing stones in every direction.
The author chairs the military research program at the Institute for National Security Studies.
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I seen this dog and pony show , Assad states he wants open dialog with Israel . He comes with open arms, Obama, and EU rush in with applause, sweet remarks and cheers him on . To sweeten Assad supposedly peace offerings , Obama and EU minimizes issues of Syria’s involvements with terrorism, attacks in Iraq killing a few hundred, missiles to Hezbollah, Iran’s terrorist facilities in Syria. They believe they can wine him away from such things.
ReplyDeleteAssad will no doubt obtain certain economic concessions, such as when the Obama administration lifted a ban on exporting information technology products and aviation industry goods to Syria, Syrian Ambassador to the United States Imad Mustafa said July 27 on Syrian national television. Mustafa added that U.S. President Barack Obama is considering lifting more bans as his administration is expected to do a line-by-line re-evaluation of existing economic sanctions on Syria in order to improve relations between Damascus and Washington. Yes Obama still throws some sanctions on Syria.
Yet Assad like Iran has refused full access to certain sites related to Syria's plutonium production plant in 2007, which Israel bombed. Just recently U.N. inspectors had found growing evidence of covert nuclear activity in Syria, and European allies said a lack of Syrian transparency demanded utmost scrutiny.
Syria had almost built a North Korean-designed, nuclear reactor meant to yield bomb-grade plutonium before Israel bombed it in 2007. Let me say that again , “bomb-grade plutonium , “ Three other military sites which satellite pictures showed Syria "sanitized" -- landscaping them and whisking away equipment -- shortly after the IAEA asked to check them out.
Syria may be operating more nuclear sites, apart from the reactor at Deir Azour which was bombed by Israel on September 6 2007 in what came to be known as Operation Orchard, former US envoy to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Gregory Schulte recently stated .
Bashar al-Assad not only has terrorist network in Syria, he also has North Korea tech’s who helped him build the reactor at Deir Azour , and clean up the mess after the Israeli bombing. They also helped build a missile facility on top of that., I guess so no one can do further investigations.
So with decoy moves Bashar al-Assad plays his Israeli card, lessen International pressure over his “other activities” and get everyone to focus on Israel.
Well, Assad will start out smooth with these Israeli talks, then comes decoy arguments & actions , Assad starts making impossible demands on Israel, escalating the war rhetoric with Israel, then moves Syrian troops around .. gee he done all this before. If you keep track Iran and North Korea does the same thing, however for dramatic effect they fire off salvos of missiles.
Assad then will foam at the mouth demanding EU and the USA do something about Israel
Then .. well you know the rest .. going in circles yet Washington, EU fails to understand, recognize and around and around we go .
TY Stephen for the comments. This game is an art form out in this corner of the world. Why the West constantly gets sucked in has to make one wonder, well, maybe not.
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