Wednesday, December 19, 2012

Poll - Israelis Support Two State Solution....If Pigs Can Fly

Dr. Aaron Lerner..
18 December '12..

Go to the website of Blue White Future (“BWF”) - and you won't find a copy of the actual poll that they paid for. Instead there are links both in Hebrew and English to the same Jerusalem Post item below.

That's too bad.

It seems from what one can glean from the Jerusalem Post article that the poll was designed to yield some figures that could be used to support the group's agenda rather than seriously study Israeli public opinion.

Here is the problem: it appears that they are asking what might be termed "if pigs could fly" questions.

If there was a deal that ACTUALLY could guarantee a "demilitarized Palestinian state" then the Israeli public would .....

And if Israelis had the choice of an arrangement that could ACTUALLY guarantee that two states would live "side by side in peace for twenty years" then ......

But before you run off and tell whoever is bankrolling this campaign that you have a fantastic poll that shows that the Israeli public supports your policy recommendations, how about having the guts to ask:

"Do you think that it is realistic to expect a Palestinian state to ACTUALLY be demilitarized?"

"Do you think it is realistic to expect a Palestinian state to live side by side in peace for twenty years with Israel?"

But they don't ask these questions.

Perhaps because they know that pretty much every poll to date that has asked such questions has found that Israelis are a pretty pessimistic bunch. In fact, even most leftist Israelis sound pessimistic about the prospects of Palestinian compliance when they are polled on this.

In all due respect to Blue White Future founders Admiral (ret.) Ami Ayalon and Colonel (res.) Gilead Sher, these are two people who have been consistently on the wrong side of history in their left-leaning policy recommendations. Policy recommendations that in the past and also today are profoundly disconnected from reality.

Why disconnected from reality?

Because their policy recommendations are based on the minority "best case scenario" that does in fact assume that a Palestinian state will ACTUALLY be demilitarized and that it is realistic to expect a Palestinian state to live side by side in peace for twenty years with Israel.

If they want to believe that pigs can fly that's their business.

But if they want to wave around polls to try to show that the Israeli public supports them then they should at least have the intellectual honesty to also ask the Israeli public if they share their conviction that pigs can fly.]

Poll: Majority of Israelis prefer two-state solution
By GABRIELLA WEINIGER The Jerusalem Post 12/18/2012 11:55

A clear majority of Israelis believe that the establishment of a demilitarized Palestinian state is Israel’s best chance to remain a Jewish and democratic state in 20 years’ time, a Smith Research/Jerusalem Post poll showed on Monday.

The survey, commissioned by Blue White Future, was conducted among 500 respondents from a representative sample of the adult Jewish population in Israel.

According to the survey, 58 percent of Israelis would prefer to see Israel remain as a Jewish, democratic state through fixed borders along the route of the West Bank security barrier, with Israel preserving its character alongside a demilitarized Palestinian state.

A majority of 62% supports the principle of “two states for two peoples.”

The survey shows that younger people have more right-wing positions than adults, with 69% of respondents aged 50 and above supporting the two-state principle, compared to 63% among those aged 30-49 and 42% of those aged 18- 29.

Furthermore, 25% of those aged 18-29 supported a scenario involving the annexation of the territories without granting full rights to the Palestinians in order to keep the state Jewish and democratic, compared with 16% of those aged 30-49 and 7% aged 50 and above.

Meanwhile, a panel discussion at the Sapir Academic College near Sderot on Tuesday titled “Agreement for Peace” elaborated upon public opinion about the conflict and premises for its resolution.

Prof. Tamar Hermann presented a study carried out by the Israel Democracy Institute, which dealt with the position of the Jewish Israeli public towards peace with the Palestinians.

The research illustrated that such a peace is one of the lowest measured priorities for the Israeli public – with an index of 14.7 in 2012 compared to 56.8 in 1969.

The social justice protests of 2011 had “almost no effect” on the rate of achieving peace with the Palestinians, the study surmised.

MK Arieh Eldad (National Union) commented on the findings, saying the public is “not ready to buy the faulty product we call Oslo [Accords],” adding that partition cannot solve the conflict, which is centered around far more than just territory.


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