Showing posts with label Israeli poll. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Israeli poll. Show all posts

Thursday, February 1, 2018

Why polls on a Palestinian state are a fantasy - by Stephen M. Flatow

The “Palestinian state” that 47 percent of Israeli Jews would favor is a creature of the Steinmetz Center’s imagination. A permanently peaceful, totally demilitarized, terror-fighting Palestinian state that won’t insist on flooding Israel with “refugees.” Who wouldn’t want such a neighbor? Frankly, I’m surprised only 47 percent of Israeli Jews voiced their support.


Stephen M. Flatow..
JNS.org..
30 January '18..

Ever wonder why polls consistently show that a large portion of the Israeli public supports creating a Palestinian state?

How can it be that despite the Palestinian Authority’s (PA) support for terrorism, violations of the Oslo Accords and non-stop anti-Israel incitement, so many Israelis seem to be in favor of establishing a Palestinian state next door? Could it be that the answer is found in the asking?

Just last week, newspaper headlines announced that according to a new poll, 47 percent of Israeli Jews still support Palestinian statehood. The poll was carried out by the Tami Steinmetz Center for Peace Research, at Tel Aviv University.

But as with most news about Israel, you need to dig behind the headlines to find out the real story. In this case, the real story is the wording that the Steinmetz Center used. The question which got that 47 percent figure was loaded with false assumptions and completely unrealistic expectations. In other words, the poll offered a fantasy.

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Thursday, March 10, 2016

Pew Polls, Arsonists and Arab MKs - by Evelyn Gordon

...Yet rather than helping to cultivate such a new leadership, both American Jews and Israeli leftists have been enthusiastically supporting the very Israeli Arabs who are doing the most to destroy coexistence. Hadash chairman Ayman Odeh, for instance – who condemned the GCC for declaring Hezbollah a terrorist organization, but won’t condemn Palestinian knife attacks because “I don’t think it’s my place to tell the people how to resist” – was feted by Jewish groups when he visited America last year. Thus, it’s high time for Arabs and Jews alike to realize that supporting arsonists like Odeh is no way to foster coexistence. Otherwise, the “alienation and disgust” reflected in the Pew poll will only keep growing.

Evelyn Gordon..
Commentary Magazine..
09 March '16..

The Israeli media were virtually unanimous yesterday in headlining a new Pew survey of Israeli opinion. All highlighted the finding that nearly half of Israeli Jews support expelling Arabs. The only reporter who thought to ask an expert what this figure really means was Haaretz’s Ofer Aderet. But to understand the expert’s answer, one other fact is helpful: Just a day before Pew published its survey, two of the Knesset’s three Arab parties publicly condemned the Gulf Cooperation Council for declaring Hezbollah a terrorist organization, on the grounds that this declaration might benefit the country in whose parliament they serve.

Aderet queried Professor Sammy Smooha about the Pew finding because he’s Israel’s leading expert in Jewish-Arab relations, having tracked the subject since 2003 through a series of comprehensive annual polls. Smooha said Pew’s results disagreed with his own polls, which consistently found that about three-quarters of Israeli Jews support coexistence with Arabs. He offered two explanations for this divergence.

First, the Pew question was vague and confusing. Respondents were asked simply whether they agreed or disagreed that “Arabs should be expelled or transferred from Israel.” That’s easy to answer if you believe that Arabs should either always be expelled or never be expelled. But what if, like many Israelis, you believe the answer is sometimes yes and sometimes no?

Many center-rightists, for instance, favor expelling Arabs who openly support terror or seek to undermine Israel’s existence as a Jewish state, but not other Arabs. Many center-leftists believe East Jerusalem Arabs (most of whom are permanent Israeli residents but not citizens) should be forced to become part of the Palestinian Authority whether they want to or not, but not other Arabs. Thus for these respondents, the answer would depend on whether they interpreted the word “Arabs” in Pew’s question to mean “all Arabs” or “some Arabs.”

Smooha argued that most respondents who agreed with the statement interpreted it as meaning “some Arabs,” because if you read it to mean expelling all Arabs, the idea “is unrealistic and unfeasible.” Indeed, no Israeli party advocates expelling all Arabs, and very few individuals do; even diehard anti-Arab racists tend to make exceptions for the Druze, for instance.

His interpretation is reinforced by looking at voting patterns. According to Pew, rightist and religious Jews overwhelmingly support expelling Arabs. But the only right-wing party that actually advocates expelling sizable numbers of Arabs – Yisrael Beiteinu, which wants to swap certain Arab towns for the major settlement blocs under a final-status deal with the Palestinians – won a mere six seats in the last Knesset elections; the other rightist and religious parties, which advocate no such thing, won a combined 51.

In contrast, Pew found little support for expelling Arabs on the left. Yet the leading center-left faction – Zionist Union, with 24 seats – is also the one Israeli faction that advocates expelling large numbers of Arabs right now, as opposed to under some distant final-status agreement: The Labor Party, which accounts for most of Zionist Union’s seats, recently adopted a plan to unilaterally hand East Jerusalem over to the PA, thereby removing hundreds of thousands of Arabs from Israel.

In short, Pew’s results don’t fit actual voting patterns at all unless you conclude that most center-leftists interpreted its question as meaning “all Arabs,” and therefore disagreed, while most rightists interpreted it as meaning “some Arabs,” and therefore agreed.

This brings us to Smooha’s second explanation: He believes Pew’s finding primarily “reflects alienation and disgust with the Arabs more than it attests to agreement to grant legitimacy to the government to expel them.” In other words, many Israelis chose to interpret the question as meaning “some Arabs” – a position they could support – because they wanted to demonstrate their “alienation and disgust.”

Friday, May 17, 2013

Taking a Moment and Walking through the Peace Index Poll

Dr. Aaron Lerner..
IMRA Weekly Commentary..
16 May '13..

The Peace Index is a project of the Evens Program for Mediation and Conflict Resolution at Tel Aviv University and the Israel Democracy Institute. This month's survey was conducted by telephone on April 28–30, 2013, by the Midgam Research Institute.

Let’s take a moment and walk through some of the findings among adult Israeli Jews:

What is your position on holding peace negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian Authority?
1. Strongly in favor 31.2
2. Somewhat in favor 32.9
3. Somewhat opposed 12.8
4. Strongly opposed 16.7
5. Don’t know / Refuse to answer 31.2

So Israelis want to talk.

But wait a moment.

Do you believe or not believe that negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian Authority will lead to peace between Israel and the Palestinians in the coming years?
1. Strongly believe 6.8
2. Somewhat believe 24.0
3. Somewhat don’t believe 22.6
4. Don’t believe at all 44.2
5. Don’t know / Refuse to answer 2.4

That’s right. Israelis want to talk, but they don’t think it will lead to peace.

Tuesday, January 1, 2013

From Israel - Two more “if pigs could fly" polls.

Fresnozionism.org..
31 December '12..

Two new polls are being widely quoted in the media as showing that Israelis — even voters for right-wing parties — want to make a two-state deal with the Palestinians. For example, Barak Ravid writes in Ha’aretz [subscription],

Two opinion surveys conducted by different Israeli pollsters in December show that most Likud-Beiteinu and the further-right Habayit Hayehudi voters would support a peace agreement establishing a demilitarized Palestinian state based on the 1967 borders, Israel’s retention of major settlement blocs and a division of Jerusalem. The two polls also revealed that two thirds of all Israelis support such an agreement…

The Abraham Center commissioned parallel polls from Mina Tzemach’s Dahaf and from pollster Rafi Smith on the Israeli public’s views about peace with the Palestinians. The firms were aware of each other’s polls. Each poll asked one question: If the government of Israel presented a public referendum on a peace agreement that would end the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, to be implemented only after the Palestinians held up all the obligations at their end, especially the war on terror, and the United States approved of the agreement, would you support it or not?

The principles of the agreement as presented to respondents were for two states – Israel for the Jewish people and Palestine for the Palestinians, with Palestinian refugees having the right to return only to their new country. The Palestinian state would be demilitarized and its boundaries would be based on the 1967 lines with exchanges of equal-sized territory. Those exchanges would take into consideration Israel’s security needs and would retain the large settlement blocs in Israeli hands…

When it came to the general public, Mina Tzemach’s poll revealed that 67 percent supported such an agreement and 21 percent opposed it, while Rafi Smith’s poll showed 68 percent in favor and 25 percent against. The surveys found that the general public’s support for the agreement rose to 75 percent (Dahaf ) and 80 percent (Rafi Smith ) when augmented by various other “improvements” such as a defense alliance with the United Sates, disarmament of Hamas and an end to its rule in Gaza, and Arab states’ willingness to enact full diplomatic relations with Israel.

Does this mean, as the Left suggests, that it is the intransigence of the Netanyahu government that is holding Israel back from making peace? Does it mean that with a little more pressure from the US, such an agreement is possible?

Of course not. What it means is that Israelis really, really want peace and most would give up territory in return, if peace were attainable by doing so.

The poll question presumes that the PLO state would be demilitarized and the Palestinians would “hold up all their obligations [first].” How demilitarization could be enforced and how the Palestinians could be prevented from violating the agreement — as they have violated almost every agreement they made with Israel since 1993 — are not specified. As for the idea that Hamas would disarm and give up control of Gaza, it’s far more likely that Hamas will end up in control of Judea and Samaria too.

Friday, December 28, 2012

An Israeli state of mind - Top heavy on realism and low on wishful-thinking

Yoram Ettinger..
Israel Hayom..
28 December '12..

On the eve of the January 22, 2013 Israeli election, the Israeli public demonstrates more realism than its politicians. Israelis highlight security imperatives when responding to reality-driven polls, which pose questions based on the stormy Arab Winter and not on the mirage of the Arab Spring.

Increasingly, Israelis recognize that — in the Middle East — bolstered security constitutes a solid base for survival and for the pursuit of peace. They realize that the pursuit of peace, by lowering the threshold of security, could jeopardize survival, as well as the slim chance for peace.

Notwithstanding the overwhelmingly dovish Israeli media and academia, most Israelis — Right, Center and Left — have concluded that security-driven peace supersedes peace-driven security.

In December 2012, a most thorough and detailed poll was conducted by one of the deans of Israeli pollsters, Mina Tzemach, on behalf of the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs. The poll demonstrates that Israelis respond to real local and regional developments — more than to wishful thinking — when shaping positions on the peace process, security requirements, land for peace, the two-state-solution and Iran.

Such positions are directly impacted by the 20-year track record of the 1993 Oslo Accords: an unprecedented Israeli gesture met by unprecedented Palestinian hate education, terrorism and noncompliance. Israeli opinions are also influenced by the current turbulence, unpredictability, unreliability, treachery and instability on the Arab street. The Israeli state of mind is also shaped by the violent Palestinian response (thousands of missiles launched at Israel) to the 2005 Israeli disengagement from the Gaza Strip — a tormenting, painful concession of uprooting 25 thriving Jewish communities.

According to the December Mina Tzemach (Dahaf Polling Institute) poll, most Israelis assume that Palestinians are concerned about the existence — and not the size — of Israel, and therefore are very skeptical about the land-for-peace formula. Most Israelis do not trust Palestinian compliance with agreements, and therefore are dubious about the two-state solution, which they increasingly consider a two-state delusion.

Monday, December 24, 2012

Another if pigs fly again moment? Israelis support unilateral withdrawal - if army stays

Dr. Aaron Lerner..
IMRA..
23 December '12..

So another poll bankrolled by someone pushing retreat being palmed off to the media as proof that Israelis support retreat.

Let's connect the dots.

#1. "Eighty percent of respondents supported leaving an IDF presence in the West Bank in the case of unilateral withdrawal until a final status agreement is signed. All Yahadut Hatorah supporters answered "yes" to this question, while on the other side of the political spectrum, 64% of Meretz supporters also answered in favor of IDF security measures."

#2. They didn't ask the "if pigs can fly" question: "Do you think that it is reasonable to assume that the IDF would indeed remain deployed in the West Bank in the case of unilateral withdrawal until a final status agreement is signed in the absence of an Israeli civilian presence in the area?"

Why "pigs can fly"? Because in Israel's history of deployments in areas which had no civilian presence the IDF always inevitably retreated when push came to shove.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Poll: 45% of Israelis support unilateral withdrawal - if army stays
By TAMARA ZIEVE The Jerusalem Post 12/23/2012 14:02
http://www.jpost.com/NationalNews/Article.aspx?id=297031

Rafi Smith poll: 80% of Israelis support IDF presence in W. Bank in the case of unilateral withdrawal until agreement is signed.

Almost half of the Israeli population supports a unilateral withdrawal from large sections of the Palestinian territories based on the pre-1967 lines, according to a poll conducted by Rafi Smith for the Blue White Future movement.

Friday, December 21, 2012

JCPA poll shows Israelis do not think pigs can fly

Dr. Aaron Lerner..
IMRA Weekly Commentary..
20 December '12..

Typical polls of the Israeli public ask respondents if they would be willing to make concession "x" in exchange for peace.

The problem is, of course, that concession "x" isn't in exchange for "peace" but instead for a "piece of paper" with some signatures.

While policy advocates from various left wing groups may be convinced that a piece of paper is the same thing as peace, the onus is on them to prove that the Israeli public shares their optimism.

Hats off to the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs for commissioning a detailed poll to explore just what kind of confidence the Israeli street has in the efficacy and durability of the underlying elements of the programs that the "land for piece of paper" school advocates.

The findings are stunningly clear.

Here are some excerpts of results for Israeli Jews polled by Dahaf the end of November 2012:

Would a withdrawal to the 1967 borders and the division of Jerusalem bring about anend of the conflict? Yes 15% No 83%

Wednesday, December 19, 2012

Poll - Israelis Support Two State Solution....If Pigs Can Fly

Dr. Aaron Lerner..
IMRA..
18 December '12..

Go to the website of Blue White Future (“BWF”) - http://bluewhitefuture.org and you won't find a copy of the actual poll that they paid for. Instead there are links both in Hebrew and English to the same Jerusalem Post item below.

That's too bad.

It seems from what one can glean from the Jerusalem Post article that the poll was designed to yield some figures that could be used to support the group's agenda rather than seriously study Israeli public opinion.

Here is the problem: it appears that they are asking what might be termed "if pigs could fly" questions.