Have Arabs Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Iranian Bomb?

Contrary to a recent and much-discussed poll, Arabs may not be warming to an Iranian nuclear weapons program.


Charlie Szrom
The American
13 July '10

A new poll published August 5 by the University of Maryland, Zogby International, and researcher Shibley Telhami argues that the Arab world has warmed to the idea of an Iranian nuclear weapons program. The poll of six Arab countries finds that 57 percent of respondents this year said an Iranian nuke would be a “more positive” development for the region, compared to only 29 percent who gave that answer in 2009 when asked, “If Iran acquires nuclear weapons, [what] is the likely outcome for the Middle East region?” This finding has been widely reported (including by outlets in Iran), yet may paint an incomplete picture of Arab attitudes on a potential Iranian nuclear weapons program. The recent poll diverges from other recent polling of the Arab world. When attempting to understand Arab public opinion, policy makers, the media, and the public should take into account these contradictory polls and the overall difficulty of polling the Arab world.

Among others, Pew Global Attitudes’ June poll arrived at different conclusions from the UMD/Zogby/Telhami poll on this question. In the three countries in which Pew and Telhami polling overlapped—Egypt, Jordan, and Lebanon—Pew found that in only one country, Lebanon, citizens became less concerned between 2009 and 2010 about the threat from an Iranian nuclear weapon. This is likely due to the large Shi’a community in Lebanon and the considerable influence of the Iranian-backed Hezbollah organization in the country. In Egypt and Jordan, the number of people concerned about an Iranian nuclear weapon rose by 5 and 19 points, respectively. Pew also found a slight increase in Egypt in the past year among those opposed to an Iranian nuclear weapons program, and only slight declines in Jordan and Lebanon.

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