...proof positive that the citizens are prepared to make sacrifices if it has to. But that is what the citizens are prepared to do. Hamas just made a huge wager that the Israeli leadership is not willing to launch a war to destroy Hamas. For the sake of the country I hope Hamas is wrong.
01 August '14..
The talking heads in Israel are explaining that Hamas grossly violated the latest ceasefire in order to achieve a "victory photo".
So the question is if there is any downside for Hamas for this move.
Sure, a lot of Gazans are going to Paradise in the coming hours as a result of the action. But Hamas does not consider this to be a significant downside.
Will there be yet another ceasefire in another few days?
And when this ceasefire goes into effect will what transpired in the last hour have on the conditions that will apply to the ceasefire?
And further down the timeline, will this latest incident - if Hamas holds a live IDF officer, have any negative effect?
Hamas, following closely developments in Israel up to today, is convinced that the Israeli leadership is so keen to move on that violating the ceasefire was a sure win.
Is Hamas correct?
The most significant poll of Israelis in the last week hasn't received the attention it deserves.
A pollster for the Department of Sociology at the University of Haifa asked Israeli Jews what would be a reason for accepting a ceasefire.
When asked if "A high number of IDF casualties" was a reason - only 7% said it was a reason! (each question asked separately - so that means that the other 93% either said "not a reason" or "no reply")
When asked if "Extensive injury to Israeli citizens who are not IDF soldiers" was a reason - only 7% said it was a reason!
This poll is proof positive that the citizens are prepared to make sacrifices if it has to.
But that is what the citizens are prepared to do.
Hamas just made a huge wager that the Israeli leadership is not willing to launch a war to destroy Hamas.
For the sake of the country I hope Hamas is wrong.
Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis
Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on Arab-Israeli relations
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