Demographic projections, Israel and the Angelina Jolie dilemma

Those who warn of demographic upheaval frame their predictions as if they were based on medical evidence. But they are not talking about a mastectomy, they are talking about cutting out Israel's heart.

Moshe Arens..
Haaretz..
18 June '13..

Angelina Jolie decided to have a preventive double mastectomy performed after she was informed by her doctor that there was an 87% risk that she would, in time, develop breast cancer, since her genome had a mutation of the BRCA1 gene. The generally accepted opinion nowadays is that women carrying this gene have an 80% risk of developing breast cancer by the age of 90.

We can all sympathize with her having to take such a horrendously difficult decision based on a probabilistic estimate. She could have decided to gamble on the chance that possibly she was part of the 13% who would not develop the disease even though she had that gene mutation. But she decided to play it safe − better safe than sorry.

All gamblers know how difficult it is to take a decision on a single roll of the dice, even though the probabilities of the different outcomes are well known. It is an entirely different situation when we are dealing with a large number of repetitive events in which the individual probabilities are known.

The resulting average of many events is known to be the probabilistic expectation. This is the result of the Law of Large Numbers, and even casino operators who have not studied mathematics know it. So do people in the insurance business who base the rates they set for insurance policies on their analysis of a large mass of statistical data, from which the average to be expected from a large number of similar events can be deduced. Under these circumstances, the decisions are easy.

Can we make rational decisions based on probabilistic forecasts regarding a single event, like Angelina Jolie did? If the outcome is of no great consequence, why not? You win some, you lose some.

Parroting things without bothering to check easily discoverable facts.

No, Arabs Living Under Israeli Control are Not Going to Outnumber Jews Any Time Soon

David Bernstein..
The Volokh Conspiracy..
04 March '13..

I often see lines like this in articles about Israel, this one from the AP: “... with Arabs living under Israeli control expected to outnumber Jews in the coming years.”

Let’s do the numbers. There are approximately 6.4 million Jews (including “Jews” who are not recognized by the Israeli Interior ministry as such because they are not Jewish under Jewish law). There are also approximately 1.6 million Arabs living in Israel, and 2.5 million (though this is debated) in the West Bank. Of the latter, an estimated 2.3 million live in areas under Palestinian civil control, and joint Israeli-Palestinian military control. Even giving a liberal construction to “living under Israeli control”, that makes roughly 6.4 million against 4.1 million. Given a Jewish birth rate of 2.9 per family, plus net Jewish immigration to Israel, there is not likely to be a majority of Arabs in the territory under Israeli control any time soon.

Now, if you add in the population of Gaza, things start to get closer. But even the most liberal definition of “living under Israeli control” can’t possibly include Gaza, where there is not a single Israeli civilian or soldier living, except perhaps for a handful of Shin Bet undercover agents. Yes, Israel maintains a partial blockade on Gaza, but day to day life in Gaza is anything but under Israeli control, especially in the context of an article, like the AP’s article, talking about how the tensions that arise when the Israeli and Palestinians population mix, which simply doesn’t and can’t happen in Gaza.

Ackerman - Ending Fatalism About Israel’s Future

Matthew Ackerman
Commentary/Contentions
07 December '11

http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2011/12/07/fatalism-israel-demographics/#more-776841

The JTA reports today that new population data show that during the past decade the fertility rate of Jews in Israel is on the rise compared to Arabs and other minorities in the country. Contrary to the demographic doom scenarios widely accepted both among Israeli and American elites, the most recent data are part of a growing collection of evidence that points to a stable and potentially growing Jewish majority in Israel proper, and perhaps even with the West Bank included.

Rather than having to make desperate moves in the peace process as a result of demographic trends, Israel may very well be in control of its own destiny, something all who are concerned for the Jewish state’s future should gladly accept.

The trends in the recent data are clear: whereas in 2001 Jewish births accounted for 69 percent of the Israeli total, in 2010 they represented 76 percent. This follows another study last year which found a 50 percent rise in the Jewish birthrate in Israel from 1994. (For those who assume the increase is due only to growth in the haredi sector, the birthrate for secular Jewish women was found to be 2.6 and rising, the highest in the Western world.) These new data points come years into a substantive debate in Israel about the accuracy of commonly cited Palestinian birthrates and population numbers, which are not collected with nearly the same rigor as in Israel, and are largely projections from a 1997 (unrepeated) census. All of which has led some researchers to conclude that the Palestinian population in the West Bank may be overstated by as much as 1 million, which, if true, would of course dramatically change population projections for a territory that already holds more than 300,000 Jews.

Beware Palestinian data

Op-ed: Israeli policymakers afflicted by demographobia, the illogical fear of demography

Yoram Ettinger
Israel Opinion/Ynet
03 January '11

The Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics (PCBS) declared in December, 2010 that 2014 will, ostensibly, usher in a Jewish-Arab demographic parity between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean followed by an Arab majority. That projection has been reverberated by Israeli demographers and politicians, who claim that conceding geography (Judea and Samaria) is, supposedly, a prerequisite for a secure Jewish demography. They do not examine, or doubt, the PCBS, "since the PCBS is credible, professional and supervised by Norway and the UN." Really?!

Instead of conducting a public debate on the future of the mountain ridges of Judea and Samaria, they try to scare policymakers and the public at-large into retreat and concessions. Their campaign feeds pessimism and fatalism, eroding Israel's bargaining position and posture of deterrence. They claim that Jews are doomed to become a minority west of the Jordan River. Really?!

Reality has refuted "Demographers of Doom," at least since the end of the 19th century. In March 1898, Shimon Dubnov, the leading Jewish demographer-historian, contended that Herzl's Zionism was devoid of demographic infrastructure, since no more than 500,000 Jews could be expected in the Land of Israel by the year 2000. He was off by 5 million Jews!

On the eve of the establishment of the Jewish State, Professor Roberto Bacchi, the founder of the Israel Central Bureau of Statistics and the guru of Israel's demographers and statisticians, warned that Jews were eventually doomed to become a minority within the Partition Plan. He pressured Ben Gurion to delay declaration of independence and projected that – under the best case scenario – there will be 2.3 million Jews in the Land of Israel, a 34% minority. He was off by 3 million Jews!

Since 1967, Bacchi's students have attempted to convince Israeli prime ministers to subordinate national security considerations to the "Demographic Scare." They have urged Israeli leaders to sacrifice the irreplaceable geography and topography of the over-towering Judea's and Samaria’s mountain ridges – historically and militarily – on the altar of demography.

In 2010, they adhere to Professor Bacchi's legacy. Thus, they underrate Jewish fertility, which is higher than most Arab countries (2.9 and trending upward versus 2.8 in Jordan, 2.5 in Egypt, 2.5 in the Gulf States and trending downward.) They idolize Arab fertility ignoring its sharp collapse. And, they ignore annual net-Arab emigration from Judea, Samaria and Gaza since 1950 (other than six years), while downplaying the prospect of aliyah.

During the 1980s – as they do today - they underestimated the number of Soviet Jews by 50% and stated that no massive aliyah was expected even if Moscow would open its gates. In defiance of Israel's demographic establishment, over one million olim arrived, catapulting the Jewish State to unprecedented heights technologically, medically, economically, culturally and demographically.

(Read full "Beware Palestinian data")

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A numbers game in the Middle East

Joel Brinkley
SFGate
05 September '10

As American and Middle East leaders begin peace talks in Washington, public discussion in the weeks ahead is likely to center on borders, security, settlements and the fate of Jerusalem. But behind all of this, in the negotiators' minds, a threat hangs like the sword of Damocles: Isn't the Palestinian population growing so fast that, soon enough, it will outnumber Jews in the land between the Jordan River and Mediterranean Sea?

American presidents and Israeli prime ministers have issued dire warnings about this for years. Late last year, former President Bill Clinton, speaking in Jerusalem, chastised Israelis, saying: "Two things remain unchanged" since he was president: "geography and demographics. Palestinians have more children than Israelis have or can import."

Former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, speaking to Israel's parliament in 2007, predicted "a demographic battle, drowned in blood and tears," if Israel did not settle with the Palestinians.

These stark warnings generally come from the Israeli left, which favors trading land for peace. Give the Palestinians their own state on the West Bank, they say, and the demographic nightmare will disappear. The Palestinians can have all the babies they want, and they will be residents of Palestine, not Israeli-occupied territory.

But they might all be wrong. A team of demographers headed by Yoram Ettinger, a former Israeli diplomat, conducted a detailed study and found, to most everyone's surprise, that Israeli Jews far outnumber Palestinians and Israeli Arabs. What's more, Jewish birth rates are higher now, too. The demographic threat, these demographers say, simply doesn't exist.

(Read full article)

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The power of Aliyah

Op-ed: Israel’s demographic optimism can be further boosted by growing Jewish immigration


Yoram Ettinger
Israel Opinion/Ynet
11 August '10

In 2010, a surge in the Israeli Jewish fertility rate is a long-term, unique, global phenomenon, while fertility rates decline sharply in the Third World in general and in Muslim countries in particular.

In 2010, there is a 66% Jewish majority in 98.5% of the area between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean (without Gaza) – and a 58% Jewish majority with Gaza. That Jewish majority benefits from a demographic tailwind and from a high potential of Aliyah (Jewish immigration) and of returning Israeli expatriates.



In comparison, in 1900 and 1947 there was an 8% and a 33% Jewish minority, deprived of economic, technological and military infrastructures. In 2010, the number of Arabs in Judea and Samaria is inflated by 900,000 (1.6 million and not 2.5 million) through the inclusion of 400,000 overseas residents, a double-count of 200,000 Jerusalem Arabs (who are counted as Israeli Arabs by Israel and as West Bank Arabs by the Palestinian Authority), and by ignoring annual net-emigration since 1950 (e.g. 17,000 in 2009), etc. Meanwhile, a World Bank study documents a 32% “inflation” in Palestinian birth numbers.

Since the appearance of modern-day Zionism, the demographic establishment has contended that Jews are doomed to be a minority west of the Jordan River. It asserts that Jews must relinquish geography in order to secure demography. But, what if demographic fatalism is based on dramatically erroneous assumptions and numbers? What if the demographic establishment has adopted Palestinian numbers without auditing, although such numbers are refuted annually by an examination of birth, death, migration and 1st grade registration records?

(Read full article)

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No Demographic Time Bomb; It's a Demographic Scarecrow Bomb

Ambassador (ret.) Yoram Ettinger
The Australian Jewish News
14 May "10

Anyone suggesting that Jews are doomed to become a minority between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean is either dramatically mistaken or outrageously misleading.

In contrast with conventional “wisdom,” there is a Jewish majority of 67% in the combined area of pre-1967 Israel and Judea & Samaria and a 60% majority west of the Jordan River (including Gaza), compared with a 33% and a 8% Jewish minority in 1947 and in 1900 respectively.

The robust Jewish demographic tailwind and Arab demographic headwind are demonstrated through the absolute annual number of Jewish and Arab births in pre-1967 Israel. While the annual number of Arab births stabilized at 39,000 during 1995-2009, the annual number of Jewish births surged by 50% from 80,400 in 1995 to 121,000 in 2009.

The number of Judea & Samaria Arabs is artificially inflated by 66%. It is 1.55MN and not 2.5MN. Thus, the World Bank documents a 32% “inflation” in the number of Palestinian births, a substantial erosion of the Palestinian fertility rate and a significant escalation of Arab emigration from Judea, Samaria and Gaza. Documented entries and exits via international passages feature a 17,000 net Arab emigration from Judea & Samaria in 2009, 14,000 in 2007 and only six years of net-immigration since 1950.

The significant decline in Arab population growth rate has been caused by an intensive family planning campaign, an unprecedented reduction of teen-pregnancy, a swift urbanization process, an all-time-high divorce rate and median wedding-age, an impressive expansion of education especially among women and enhanced career mentality among women.

In contrast with international demographic standards, the Palestinians include some 400,000 overseas residents in their census. They also include 250,000 Jerusalem Arabs, who bear Israeli I.D. cards and are therefore doubly-counted: as Israeli Arabs by Israel's Central Bureau of Statistics and as West Bank Arabs by the Palestinians.

Demographic doom’s day projections have been refuted drastically and systematically since the launching of the Zionist voyage by Theodore Herzl. The founders of the Israel Central Bureau of Statistics and their successors have underestimated Jewish fertility, overestimated Arab fertility, ignored Arab emigration and downplayed Aliya prospects. In the 1940s, they projected 2.3MN Jews in the Land of Israel in 2001. They were off by 3.5MN Jews! They dismissed Ben Gurion’s assessments of one million Olim in the 1950s and ridiculed the suggestion that an additional million Olim would arrive from the USSR during the 1990s.

In 2010, there is a demographic problem, but there is no demographic machete at Israel's throat. Most importantly, the demographic tailwind is Jewish, not Arab. Refuted demographic fatalism should be replaced with well-documented optimism, thus expanding security, political, strategic, diplomatic and economic options for Israel.

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The Real Demographic Threat

Evelyn Gordon
Contentions/Commentary
19 April '10

As Israel celebrates its 62nd Independence Day this evening, is the country actually independent? Judging by the remarks of some of its leading politicians, one would have to conclude that the answer is no.

Speaking at a Memorial Day ceremony yesterday, for instance, Defense Minister and Labor-party chairman Ehud Barak declared that only by signing a peace agreement with the Palestinians could Israel preserve its Jewish majority. Ehud Olmert made this claim even more bluntly in 2007, when he was prime minister, declaring that if “the two-state solution collapses … the State of Israel is finished.” Olmert’s successor as head of the Kadima party, opposition leader Tzipi Livni, has made similar remarks.

In other words, Israel has no control over its own fate; its continued existence depends entirely on the goodwill of a nation that would like nothing better than to see it disappear. Moreover, all the Palestinians have to do to secure this outcome is to continue doing exactly what they have done for the past 17 years: say “no” to every peace offer Israel makes. If that is true, Israel really is finished.

In reality, of course, the Barak-Olmert-Livni conclusion is ridiculous even if one believes the demographic doomsayers (there are grounds for skepticism, but that’s another story). Should Israel someday decide the status quo is untenable, it doesn’t need a peace agreement to leave; it can always quit the West Bank unilaterally, just as it did Gaza. After decades of condemning Israel’s “illegal occupation” and demanding its end, the world could hardly object if Israel complied.

(Read full post)

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Israel's bogus demographic threat

Dr. Aaron Lerner/Yoram Ettinger
IMRA
12 February '10

Theodore Herzl (in 1900) and David Ben Gurion (in 1947) did not subordinate their vision and long-term strategy to tenuous demographic constraints: A Jewish minority of 8% and 33% respectively between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean. Their defiance of odds was responsible for the 1948 establishment of the Jewish State.

In 2010, there is a solid 67% Jewish majority in the combined area of pre-1967 Israel and Judea and Samaria. However, some Israeli politicians employ toxic demographic assets. They inflate the number of Arabs in Judea and Samaria in order to scare the Jewish State into a retreat from a most critical area, historically and security-wise.

The following OpEd, by Haim Rozenberg, former Head of Long-Term Planning at RAFAEL (Israel Defense Ministry's Armament Development Authority), addresses the issue of toxic demographic assets.

Shabbat Shalom,
Yoram Ettinger

Toxic Demographic Assets

Haim Rozenberg
News First Class
February 8, 2010

Haim Rozenberg, former Head Long-Term Planning, RAFAEL (Israel Defense Ministry's Armament Development Authority

Defense Minister, Ehud Barak, said on February 4, 2010 that there are 12 million persons between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean: 6 million Jews and 6 million Arabs. Therefore, he concluded, a two state solution would spare Israel the wrath of Apartheid. Really?!

Barak's conclusion is based on a dramatic error of a two million person gap.

In fact, the total population west of the Jordan River is 10 million. According to Israel's Central Bureau of Statistics (ICBS), Israel's population includes 6 million Jews and 1.5 million Arabs. The ICBS has not dealt with Judea, Samaria and Gaza Arabs since 1997.

(Read full article)
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A man on a mission

Former Israeli diplomat Yoram Ettinger out to debunk Israel’s ‘demographic myth’


Yigal Walt
Israel News/Ynet
01 January '10

When Yoram Ettinger speaks his voice booms with conviction and his eyes are alight – however, one is bound to be persuaded, not to mention stunned, mostly by the figures and conclusions he presents.

The former diplomat is part of an American-Israeli research team devoted to debunking prevalent demographic views regarding Israel’s future; the group’s ground-breaking research paints a much rosier picture, predicting a solid Jewish majority in the region for years to come.

The figures painstakingly collected and analyzed by Ettinger and his colleagues are startling, particularly for Israelis who for years have been warned of the demographic sword hanging over the Jewish State’s future. The data point to grossly exaggerated Palestinian growth predictions, statistical flaws resulting in inaccurate figures, steadily growing Jewish birthrates, and a dramatically declining Arab-Israeli birthrate.

Ettinger has been tirelessly presenting the research to leading Israeli policymakers and other influential figures nationwide. In an interview with Ynetnews he recounts some of the astonished responses he has encountered during his quest; this includes a taken aback Defense Minister Ehud Barak, who was presented with the data during the previous government’s term in office.

“Barak told me: ‘Until I saw this presentation I didn’t know the facts…it would be good to present it soon to (then-Prime Minister) Ehud Olmert and to (then-Foreign Minister) Tzipi Livni, who still don’t know the facts,’” Ettinger says.

(Read full story)

Related: In defiance of demographic fatalism
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In defiance of demographic fatalism

Yoram Ettinger
Opinion/JPost
30 December 09

In 1948, prime minister David Ben-Gurion declared independence in defiance of demographic fatalism, which was perpetrated by the country's leading demographers. He rejected their assumptions that Jews were doomed to be a minority between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean, that a massive aliya wave was not feasible, that the Jewish fertility rate was declining to below reproduction levels and that the Arab fertility rate would remain the highest in the world, irrespective of modernity.

Instead, Ben-Gurion highlighted demographic optimism and aliya as top national priorities, coalesced a solid Jewish majority and planted the seeds that catapulted Israel to a Middle East power, highly respected for its civilian and military achievements.

In 2005, in capitulation to demographic fatalism, prime minister Ariel Sharon retreated from Palestinian terrorism, uprooting 10,000 Jews from Gaza and Samaria. Sharon abandoned his lifelong ideology of defiance, subordinating long-term strategy and security concerns to doomsday demography. Thus, he facilitated Hamas's takeover of Gaza and its ripple effects: slackened posture of deterrence, intensified shelling of southern Israel, the 2006 Second Lebanon War, 2008's Operation Cast Lead, the Goldstone Report and the exacerbated global pressure on Israel.

DEMOGRAPHIC ASSUMPTIONS have played an increasing role in shaping national security policy since 1992. But what if these assumptions are dramatically wrong? For example, since the beginning of annual aliya in 1882 - and in contradiction to demographic projections - the Jewish population between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean has grown 238-fold, while the Arab population increased only sixfold. Since 1948, the Jewish population has increased almost tenfold, and the Arab population has expanded threefold.

(Read full article)
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