Showing posts with label Jewish-Arab demographics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jewish-Arab demographics. Show all posts

Tuesday, June 19, 2018

Racist Demographics and ‘Peace Now’ - by Sheri Oz

So what do you call an organization that gives those “bad Jews” over there the label “settlers,” thereby taking away both their identity and their humanity?

Sheri Oz..
Israel Diaries..
18 June '18..

When ‘Peace Now’ began decades ago, I was among those who thought they had the right idea. Working for peace. Who could be against that? Maybe they were not racist back then, but I think they are now.

I will show you some material from their website and what came to my mind when I saw it. Let us start with this graphic representation of the population of the so-called West Bank (Judea & Samaria) as it appears on the Peace Now website:


Now, this is what I saw in my mind’s eye:



When Peace Now refers to “settlers” versus “Palestinians” they are actually referring to Jews versus Arabs. But if they put it in those terms, it would look a bit racist, no?

(Continue to Full Post)

Updates throughout the day at http://calevbenyefuneh.blogspot.com. If you enjoy "Love of the Land", please be a subscriber. Just put your email address in the "Subscribe" box on the upper right-hand corner of the page.Twitter updates at LoveoftheLand as well as our Love of the Land page at Facebook which has additional pieces of interest besides that which is posted on the blog. Also check-out This Ongoing War by Frimet and Arnold Roth. An excellent blog, very important work. 
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Friday, March 30, 2018

Chelm and the Palestinian statehood-demographic crisis dilemma - by Gideon Sa'ar

...To put it simply, besides the loss of security we will experience, God forbid, a sovereign Palestinian state would also mean the loss of demographic control. In fact, the establishment of a Palestinian state is the only way the Jewish majority in Israel will be lost. Not only does establishing such a state not solve the demographic problem, it is actually what causes it. And what will our own sages of Chelm tell us then? Certainly more material for superstitious folk tales.

Gideon Sa'ar..
Israel Hayom..
29 March '18..
Link: http://www.israelhayom.com/opinions/palestinian-statehood-will-cause-the-actual-demographic-crisis/

I was reminded of the Yiddish saying "bubba maisa" (which translates into something like old wives tales) when I read the apocalyptic headlines this week warning that the number of Jews and Arabs in Israel were approaching parity, or perhaps already equal.

I specifically recalled a common trope that revolves around the stupidity of the inhabitants of Chelm, a Polish town of well-wishing fools who consider themselves enlightened. In reality, however, they consistently exacerbate problems by misunderstanding essential facts or create new problems by trying to fix that which is not broken. Just like the fools in these tales, those who use demographics to say "Keep out!" are not really interested in understanding the facts. The truth is we have never enjoyed a better demographic situation: Jewish fertility rates are constantly on the rise, having passed Arab fertility rates in 2017 in the whole country, including Judea and Samaria. Along with Jewish immigration to Israel, this means the Jewish majority will only grow in the future.

For some reason, however, there are those among us who would rather rely on dubious statistics provided by the Palestinians that they purposely inflated. In the Palestinian Authority's fake registry, for example, a Palestinian who has lived in Brazil for 20 years is counted. By the same token, we can easily count every Israeli that has emigrated, which would add some 600,000 or more.

The real question here is why are we even bothering to count the Palestinians living in territories from which we withdrew a generation ago that are no longer under our control? For Israel disconnected from the Palestinian population in two moves: establishing the PA in the 1990s through the Oslo Accords and unilaterally withdrawing from the Gaza Strip in 2005. One of the main justifications for these moves was demographics. Today, almost the entire Palestinian population is under Palestinian control – either under the PA in Judea and Samaria or under Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

So why do we hear the same alarming tune after withdrawing? Should we, by the same token, add the number of Arabs on the other side of the Jordan River as well?

Sunday, December 11, 2016

Kerry's demographic doomsday for Israel bogeyman - by Gregg Roman

...Unfortunately for Secretary Kerry, most Israelis are well aware that time is not running out on Israel's future as a democratic Jewish state. A democratic Jewish state is very much in existence and running strong. For all of the loud condemnations of Israel on Western college campuses, Israel's diplomatic relations are stronger than ever before, even in the Arab world, and its international trade is massively expanding. It's kind of hard to rain on that parade. Most Israelis couldn't care less if Gazans or West Bankers choose to have slightly bigger families than the inhabitants of Tel Aviv.

Gregg Roman..
MEF/The Hill..
09 December '16..

Critics of Israel love to exploit Jewish fears and anxieties. The most extreme resort to Holocaust inversion, boycotts, blacklists, and other singling-out methods reminiscent of Europe's anti-Semitic past. Secretary of State John Kerry likes to wave around the threat of Israel's demographic extinction.

Acute Israeli sensitivity on this matter came to the fore in the late 1960s, when Israeli rule over the newly won Gaza Strip and West Bank was thought by many to be untenable owing to much-higher Palestinian birth rates. If Israel chose to annex the territories, it would be obliged either to disenfranchise their Palestinian inhabitants, making Israel undemocratic, or extend the vote and watch Israel's Jewish majority turn into a minority. For Israel to remain both a democratic and a Jewish state, according to the conventional wisdom, it would have to give the territories up. "The womb of the Arab woman," the late Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat famously said, was his "best weapon."

Fast-forward five decades. According to the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics (PCBS), the number of (non-Jewish) Arabs living in the West Bank, Gaza, and East Jerusalem (4.62 million) and in Israel (1.68 million) for the first time matches the number of Jews (6.3 million). Taking into account still-higher Palestinian birthrates, as neatly graphed out in a September 2016 full-page New York Times advertisement by a pro-Palestinian group, the Jewish population in the expanse of territory "from the Mediterranean Sea to the Jordan River" is projected to decline to 44 percent in 2030.

In his drive to wrest Israeli concessions he believes will break the Israeli-Palestinian diplomatic logjam, Secretary Kerry has repeatedly warned of a demographic doomsday for Israel. "How does Israel possibly maintain its character as a Jewish and democratic state when from the river to the sea, there would not even be a Jewish majority?" he warned last December. Time is "running out" for Israel, Kerry maintains, insinuating that Arabs will be even less likely to accept a Jewish state as part of the former Palestine mandate once they become an overall majority, instead returning to their demand for a "one-state" solution. Israel then winds up "either being an apartheid state with second-class citizens — or ... a state that destroys the capacity of Israel to be a Jewish state."

But time is not running out, at least not for Israel. There are three big problems with the demographic doomsday argument.

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Gregg Roman is director of the Middle East Forum.

Updates throughout the day at http://calevbenyefuneh.blogspot.com. If you enjoy "Love of the Land", please be a subscriber. Just put your email address in the "Subscribe" box on the upper right-hand corner of the page.Twitter updates at LoveoftheLand as well as our Love of the Land page at Facebook which has additional pieces of interest besides that which is posted on the blog. Also check-out This Ongoing War by Frimet and Arnold Roth. An excellent blog, very important work. 
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Thursday, November 17, 2016

To Begin With Facts Rather Than Assumptions. Israel’s Population Bomb is Disappearing - By Elliott Abrams

...What are the political implications? Whatever they are, the debate must begin with facts rather than assumptions–including facts about population growth.

Elliott Abrams..
Pressure Points..
16 November '16..
Link: http://blogs.cfr.org/abrams/2016/11/16/israels-population-bomb-is-disappearing/

Everyone knows that because Arab population growth rates in Israel and the West Bank far exceed Jewish ones, the percentage of the population that is not Jewish will rise steadily. The only problem with that statement is that it is not true.

As The Times of Israel has just reported,

The fertility rates of Jewish and Arab women were identical for the first time in Israeli history in 2015, according to figures released by the Israel Central Bureau of Statistics on Tuesday….Jewish and Arab women had given birth to an average of 3.13 children as of last year….

The explanation is a sharp drop in Arab Israeli birth rates while Jewish birth rates have been rising: “In 2000, the fertility among the country’s Arab population stood at 4.3 children per woman, while the fertility rate of Jewish women was 2.6. Since then the gap has narrowed as the Arab rate dropped off and the Jewish fertility rates steadily increased.”

Thursday, September 29, 2016

The phony threat of a "Palestinian majority" - by Stephen M. Flatow

...All of which brings us to today. The "occupation" is long over. The "separation" that the S. Daniel Abraham Center is now demanding was already implemented 21 years ago. The "demographic time bomb" was defused. Israel is still both Jewish and democratic. Now you can see why the advocates of Palestinian statehood feel so frustrated. They've run out of cogent arguments. All they can do now is try to wind the clock back to the days before Oslo, so that they can portray Israel as an occupier. That is nothing less than a callous, cynical attempt to manipulate the public. 

Stephen M. Flatow..
JNS.org..
28 September '16..

A group advocating Palestinian statehood took out a full-page ad in The New York Times last week to warn that there will be "a Palestinian majority" in Israel in less than a decade unless such a state is created. A reader of the ad might think he had fallen into a time warp and ended up sometime prior to the signing of the 1993 Oslo accords.

The ad, sponsored by the S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace, was headlined "Separation Between Israelis and Palestinians is Essential." It featured what it called a "population breakdown from the Mediterranean Sea to the Jordan River" - a frightening chart that showed the current Jewish population and that of projected estimates; in 2015, 52 percent Jewish; in 2020, 49 percent Jewish and in 2030, 44 percent Jewish.

Those statistics are not merely ignorant; they constitute deliberate deception.

(Continue Reading)

Updates throughout the day at http://calevbenyefuneh.blogspot.com. If you enjoy "Love of the Land", please be a subscriber. Just put your email address in the "Subscribe" box on the upper right-hand corner of the page.Twitter updates at LoveoftheLand as well as our Love of the Land page at Facebook which has additional pieces of interest besides that which is posted on the blog. Also check-out This Ongoing War by Frimet and Arnold Roth. An excellent blog, very important work. 
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Friday, August 12, 2016

A Demographic Threat? Counting the Palestinians - by Caroline Glick

There are no magic solutions to our problems with the Palestinians. But there are options other than repeating let alone expanding on failed policies. To develop these options, Israel needs to know the dimensions of the demographic threat.


Caroline Glick..
Column One..
11 August '16..
Link: http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Column-One-Counting-the-Palestinians-463942

In a surprise move last month, Hamas announced it will be participating in the Palestinian municipal elections in October. The Palestinian Authority’s Fatah leadership greeted Hamas’s announcement with deep and understandable anxiety. Hamas is expected to win control over a significant number, perhaps even a majority of municipal and local governments in Judea and Samaria.

PA leader Mahmoud Abbas (whose own five year term in office ended six years ago) and his Fatah comrades aren’t the only ones worried. Last week, Yediot Aharonot’s military commentator, Alex Fishman, reported that the IDF’s senior leadership is also deeply concerned.

According to Fishman, in recent weeks Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman has held a series of senior-level discussions, initially convened to discuss long-term Israeli strategic options in Judea and Samaria. Due to the IDF’s concerns over the elections, those discussions quickly devolved into a more limited discussion of how to prevent a Hamas electoral victory.

Fishman reported that the top generals have convinced Liberman, who until now supported octogenarian Abbas’s swift retirement, that “it is Israel’s interest not only for Abu Mazen [Abbas] to remain in power, but to empower him still further.”

To this end, according to Fishman, Liberman has agreed to adopt a plan prepared by the Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT), for Israel to transfer the Civil Administration’s planning and zoning authority in Area C to the PA. The plan also involves retroactively authorizing tens of thousands of Palestinian structures built illegally in Area C and authorizing the construction of a new Palestinian urban center in Area C.

Area C, it should be recalled, constitutes some 60 percent of Judea and Samaria. It has a negligible Palestinian population. All of the Israeli communities are located in Area C. The IDF holds sole security control over the area.

Area C is the only area where the Civil Administration retains governing functions. Areas A and B, where all the major Palestinian population centers are located, have been autonomously governed by the PA for 20 years.

The IDF’s plan is startling on several levels.

Since the earliest years of the Oslo peace process with the PLO, retaining Israeli control over planning and zoning powers in Area C has been a central goal of Israeli policy. Israel’s retention of these powers has enabled the IDF to retain security control over Area C and so defend not only the Israeli communities in Judea and Samaria, which are all located in Area C, but to defend Tel Aviv, Jerusalem and the rest of Israel’s major urban centers as well.

Why would the IDF recommend conceding these strategic interests just as Hamas is poised to gain significant power in Judea and Samaria? Even more to the point, what is the basis of the IDF’s assessment that by conceding these strategic assets Israel will enhance – let along guarantee – Fatah’s chances of winning in October? For the past 16 years, Israeli concessions have only served to make the Palestinians more contemptuous and hateful toward us.

Wednesday, December 31, 2014

The ‘Demographic Time Bomb' Boogie-Man and Inflated Palestinian Population Figures

...The inflated numbers are a key factor behind the current claim that Palestinians will outnumber Jews living in Israel and the Palestinian territories by 2016. Similarly false claims have been made in previous years, triggering the politically-loaded conclusion that Israel, in supposedly becoming a country where a Jewish minority rules over an Arab majority, has effectively emerged as an apartheid state.

Ben Cohen..
The Algemeiner..
30 December '14..

The latest demographic survey of the Palestinian population by the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics overestimates the number of Palestinian residents between the Mediterranean Sea and the River Jordan by around 1.2 million, a leading Israeli expert on demography has told The Algemeiner.

Ambassador Yoram Ettinger, a former Israeli diplomat who now works as a lecturer and consultant and is well-known in policy circles for his research on Palestinian and Israeli demography, said that the Palestinian statistics, released yesterday, “are inflated by more than 1 million in Judea and Samaria (the West Bank) and by almost 400,000 in Gaza.”

According to the Palestinian statistics bureau, there are over 6 million Palestinians living west of the Jordan; Ettinger calculates the number at 4.8 million.

The inflated numbers are a key factor behind the current claim that Palestinians will outnumber Jews living in Israel and the Palestinian territories by 2016. Similarly false claims have been made in previous years, triggering the politically-loaded conclusion that Israel, in supposedly becoming a country where a Jewish minority rules over an Arab majority, has effectively emerged as an apartheid state.

Ettinger identified several methodological flaws in the official Palestinian count. “According to their own records, they include over 400,000, mostly in Judea and Samaria, who are abroad for more than a year,” he said. This contradicts, Ettinger said, the “international standards” which dictate that a person who lives outside his or her country for more than a year should not be included in a count of the resident population.

“The only entity that doesn’t follow this practice is the Palestinian statistics bureau,” Ettinger said.

Tuesday, April 29, 2014

(Video) The actual demographic balance between Israelis and Palestinians.

The following TV interview, by Dr. Guy Bechor from the Herzliya Interdisciplinarian Center (IDC), one of Israel's leading Middle East scientists, sets the record straight on the Jewish-Arab demographic balance west of the Jordan Rive. Those who claim that Jews are doomed to become a minority west of the Jordan River - or that an Israeli control of the mountain ridges of Judea & Samaria would transform Israel into an Apartheid state - are either dramatically mistaken, or outrageously misleading. Yoram Ettinger

Caroline Glick..
18 April '14..
H/T Yoram Ettinger..



Dr. Guy Bechor discusses the actual demographic balance between Israel and the Palestinians on Israel TV Channel 2's morning show. His data are aligned with those set out in Caroline Glick's book: The Israeli Solution: A One-State Plan for Peace in The Middle East and point to the same policy conclusions



Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ra879tN9pAA&feature=youtu.be

Updates throughout the day at http://calevbenyefuneh.blogspot.com. If you enjoy "Love of the Land", please be a subscriber. Just put your email address in the "Subscribe" box on the upper right-hand corner of the page.Twitter updates at LoveoftheLand as well as our Love of the Land page at Facebook which has additional pieces of interest 
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Tuesday, March 4, 2014

Again, The Demography Argument Takes Center Stage

President Obama's and Secretary Kerry's statements demonstrate that public officials continue to trust in the conventional "demographic argument" that the Arab population will outnumber the Jewish population in Israel and the West Bank. What is needed is more scrutiny by the media on the reliability of current Arab and Jewish population figures and on the trends that inform forecasts.

Steven Stotsky..
CAMERA Journalists..
04 March '14..

In an interview with The Atlantic writer Jeffrey Goldberg on March 2, 2014, President Barack Obama prodded Israel to forge a deal with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas before time runs out. Reiterating the message given to the Israeli leadership by Secretary of State John Kerry, the President stated

each successive year, the window is closing for a peace deal that both the Israelis can accept and the Palestinians can accept -- in part because of changes in demographics.

Anticipation of the day when the Arab population will outnumber the Jewish population between the Jordan River and the Mediteranean Sea has long injected a sense of urgency to concluding a deal with the Palestinians. The so-called "demographic argument" resonates in the media that covers the diplomatic process. But writing in the Algemeiner on Feb. 27, 2014, Michael Widlanski urged caution in blindly accepting demographic predictions. He recalled the history of mistaken population forecasts and the uncertainty about current predictions for the future.

Widlanski cited the early example of esteemed Jewish historian Simon Dubnov, who predicted in 1898 that "in a hundred years the Jewish population of Palestine will reach one hundred thousand men. Dubnov's estimate was only off by a ratio of 50 to 1." Widlanski wrote "Had Zionist leaders accepted Dubnov's dire demographic view, they might have aborted a modern state of Israel before it was born."

More recently, the Soviet Jewish immigration wave in the 1990s was not foreseen nor were the opposing trends in Arab and Jewish fertility rates. Arab rates have declined more rapidly than predicted, while Jewish rates have increased slightly, not only due to increasing numbers of religious Jews, but even among secular Israeli Jews. If the trends continue, the Jewish fertility rate in Israel will soon exceed the Palestinian fertility rate in the West Bank.

Basing crucial national policy on demographic predictions has always been fraught with danger. In 1987, the Chicago Tribune carried an article on the demography debate in Israel. The distinguished Israeli demographer Arnon Sofer was quoted as saying,

"Demographically speaking, Israel is without question becoming a binational state. These statistics don't lie ... This is the greatest threat to the democratic foundations of Zionism and the Jewish state, and no one can ignore it any longer." (Chicago Tribune, Dec. 20, 1987)

Geula Cohen, then the leader of the nationalist Tehiya Party, reportedly retorted, "You have your statistics, and I have my own music." Then Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir characterized Sofer and Meron Benvenisti, another noted demographer who shared Sofer's view, as "defeatists," "pessimists" and "prophets of doom." Shamir countered that Israel from its inception always faced demographic danger, but "with another wave of Jewish immigration... Israel's Jewish majority could be assured for years to come." Shamir was partially vindicated seven years later when a wave of Soviet Jewish immigration began that would bring to Israel a million Jews and reset the demographic clock for at least another decade.

Complicating the forecasting problem is the uncertainty of population statistics. The Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics in 2009 reported that Palestinian fertility rates in the West Bank stood at 3.8 children per female over the course of a lifetime. This was down from 5.6 in 1997 and 9 in 1960 (rates in the Gaza Strip were approximately 1 higher for 2009 and 1997). According to PCBS, the total Palestinian Arab population in the territories in 2013 stood at 4.42 million, comprising 2.72 million in the West Bank and 1.7 million in the Gaza Strip.

However, the Palestinian figures are disputed. The American-Israeli Demographic Research Group [AIDRG] published a study in 2005 that calculates the West Bank Arab population as a million less than what is claimed by the PCBS. The discrepancies AIDRG claims to have uncovered are as follows:

Friday, January 31, 2014

Trying to scare us again, and again... by Caroline Glick

...So far, Netanyahu, Bennett and Ya’alon have competently exposed the lies behind the threats. And they must continue on this course. As we learned from Oslo and Gaza, nothing good comes from surrendering our rights and our land. And with Judea, Samaria and Jerusalem hanging in the balance, the stakes have never been higher.

Caroline Glick..
carolineglick.com..
30 January '14..

Finance Minister Yair Lapid delivered a scary speech on Wednesday. At the Institute of National Security Studies conference, Lapid warned that if we don’t accept US Secretary of State John Kerry’s framework for negotiations, the Europeans are going to take away our money.

Lapid claimed that Israel’s economic future is dependent on surrendering Jerusalem, Judea and Samaria to the PLO. If we don’t, he said, the EU will abrogate its economic association agreement with us. And such a move on Europe’s part will cause serious harm to our economy.

According to Lapid, “If negotiations with the Palestinians stall or blow up and we enter the reality of a European boycott, even a very partial one, the Israeli economy will retreat, the cost of living will rise, budgets for education, health, welfare and security will be cut [and] many international markets will be closed to us.”

On the other hand, if we give up Jerusalem, Judea and Samaria, Lapid promises that we will all get rich.

It took less than 10 minutes for Lapid’s remarks to be exposed as utter nonsense.

The EU delegation to Israel flatly denied that the EU is considering abrogating the association agreement.

“There has been absolutely no consideration in the EU of the abrogation of the association agreement. It is not in the cards,” a statement by the delegation said.

As for the economic benefits Lapid promised Israel would reap from giving in to the PLO, here too, his claims do not withstand scrutiny.

First of all, Israel’s economy will be dramatically weakened, not strengthened, by a deal with the PLO.

As Economy Minister Naftali Bennett explained last week, the establishment of a Palestinian state in Judea, Samaria and Jerusalem would cause unprecedented damage to the economy. Like the de facto Palestinian state in Gaza, such a state would serve as a launching ground for missile attacks against Israel. And from Judea and Samaria, the Palestinians would have the capacity to destroy Israel’s economy with just a few, relatively primitive projectiles.

As Bennett out it, “Imagine if just one missile per day fell on [Israel’s technology hub in] Herzliya Pituah, what that would do to Israel’s economy. If even one plane which was supposed to land at Ben-Gurion Airport crashes [due to terrorism] per year, it would crush the Israeli economy.”

Beyond what the Palestinians would do, there is no reason to believe – and every reason to doubt – that Europe would reward Israel in any way for giving its capital and heartland to the PLO.

In remarks last week meant to counter Bennett’s statement, Justice Minister Tzipi Livni inadvertently explained the true situation Israel faces from Europe.

In Livni’s words, “Europe is boycotting [Israeli] products. And, true, it is starting with the settlements, but their problem is with Israel, which is perceived as a colonialist state, so it won’t only stop with the settlements but will [reach] Israel as a whole.”

As we learned from our experience with the 2005 withdrawal from Gaza, Israel’s actions play no role in Europe’s perception of the Jewish state.

Europe will not cease to perceive Israel as “a colonialist state” even if we remove ourselves, lock, stock and barrel to the 1949 armistice lines.

In the lead-up to the Gaza withdrawal, Livni promised that once Israel quit Gaza, its diplomatic position would improve dramatically. By ending the so-called occupation of Gaza, she argued, Israel would prove its good will, and the Europeans would stop attacking us and take our side against the Palestinians at the UN and other arenas.

In the event, not only did this not occur, but the EU refused to acknowledge that the so-called occupation of Gaza even ended. To this day, Europe castigates Israel for its mythical “occupation” of Gaza.

As Livni accidentally explained, as far as Europe is concerned, Israel’s size is not the issue. Israel is the issue. True, Israel surrendered Gaza to Palestinian terrorists and removed every Israeli civilian and soldier from the territory. But since Israel is still stronger than the terror state in Gaza, Israel is still the “occupier.”

By the same token, even if Israel were to quit Judea, Samaria and Jerusalem completely, as long as Israel remains more powerful than the Palestinians in the areas, Europe will castigate Israel as the “occupier.”

Wednesday, January 22, 2014

The assertion that time is not on Israel’s side simply defies logic

...As for the assertion that time is not on Israel’s side, it defies logic. Israel is a success story, while our Arab neighbors are plagued by civil wars, cultural decline, and economic contraction. If time is their friend, they surely don’t need enemies.

Dr. Emmanuel Navon..
I24 News..
22 January '14..

In its last issue, The Economist claims that Israel will not remain Jewish if it does not evacuate the West Bank (“demography,” it says, is heading to “a Palestinian majority”). Interestingly, The Economist’s argument is no longer about peace but about demographics. With the Oslo Agreements having brought war and bloodshed, and with the European-imposed Arab state model crumbling under the weight of political Islam, the idea that establishing a 23rd failed Arab state is what will bring peace to this war-torn region does not even pass the laughing test. Hence has the justification for Palestinian statehood switched (at least among rational people) from peace to demographics.

But if The Economist and other proponents of the two-state model have been so wrong about peace, why assume that they are so right about demographics?

For a start, Gaza is now out of the equation, and therefore calculations only apply to pre-1967 Israel and to the West Bank. The binational scare is based on a census conducted in 1997 by the “Palestine Central Bureau of Statistics” (PCBS). According to that census, there were 2.78 million Arabs in the West Bank in 1997. This figure surprised many at the time because a similar census conducted by the Israeli Central Bureau of Statistics (ICBS) in 1996 had revealed that the number of Arabs in the West Bank was of 2.11 million. How could the Arab population have increased so rapidly within a year?

The answer is that the PCBS included 325,000 overseas residents and double-counted the 210,000 Arab residents of Jerusalem. In 2011, there were about 400,000 Arabs from the West Bank living overseas. They are still included in the PCBS demographic count. According to internationally accepted demographic standards, overseas residents who are abroad for over a year are not counted demographically. The PCBS does not abide by this international standard (Israel does). The PCBS also assumed, back in 1997, that there would be an annual net Arab immigration to the West Bank and Gaza of 45,000. In reality, there has been an annual net Arab emigration from the West Bank and Gaza.

According to Israeli demographer Sergio della Pergola, Jews constitute a 62% majority between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea, excluding the Gaza Strip. When Israel declared its independence in 1947, there was a one-third Jewish minority. In 1947, Roberto Bachi (a professor of statistics and founder of Israel’s Central Bureau of Statistics) implored Prime Minister David Ben-Gurion not to declare independence. Bachi claimed at the time that with a population of 600,000 the Jews would become a minority by 1967. Bachi did not take into account the massive waves of “Aliya” (Jewish immigration), and his predictions turned out to be mistaken.

The Jewish population has grown so far, mostly thanks to Aliya. How does the trend look for the coming years?

Wednesday, July 31, 2013

When prominent American Jews call for painful compromises for peace

...At the very least, one would wonder why signatories of such letters, concerned as they are about Israel’s demographics, do not as actively promote aliyah as they do expulsion.

Eugene Kontorovich..
Times of Israel..
31 July '13..

A group of prominent American Jews released a letter last week, calling on painful compromises for peace. The sacrifices they envisioned potentially include hundreds of thousands of Jews leaving their homes and livelihoods behind, being uprooted and relocated, all for the sake of a Jewish majority in Israel. Similarly, in April 100 prominent American Jews signed a letter to Prime Minister Netanyahu also calling for the proverbial “painful sacrifices” for peace. Apparently, such painful concession letters have become a trend.

This summer, thousands of American Jews are making precisely such painful sacrifices for peace. To preserve Israeli democracy, they will uproot themselves, leave everything behind, and move. They do so voluntarily, before the situation has reached a crisis. They do not await or expect compensation from the government.

These are the Jews making aliyah from the U.S this summer. Of course, this is not the “painful sacrifice” the signatories had in mind.

The “demographic argument” for territorial concessions holds that there are too few Jews in the areas under Israeli control. If American Jews worry about this, the most direct and positive solution is increasing the number of Jews in the area. Fortunately, America has some five million Jews, even a small portion of whom would be a real help.

On the other hand, expelling Jews from their homes in the West Bank, where many have lived for generations, will be economically and emotionally devastating for Israel. Moreover, it does not change the number of Jews between the river and the sea, and thus leaves Israel open to secessionist demands on behalf of Israeli Arabs in, say, the Negev and Galil. It is now clearer than ever that the Palestinian authorities continue to claim to represent Israeli Arabs as well– witness the demand for the release of Israeli Arab murderers as a down payment on negotiations. Thus unlike aliyah, expulsions may simply be rearranging the demographic deck chairs on the Titanic.

Thursday, June 27, 2013

The inevitable Jewish minority in Israel? Not inevitable, not even close.

"...Is the “peace process” worth pursuing? Would a two-state solution end the conflict? These demographic trends can’t answer such questions. What they can do is remove the artificial pressure on Israel to do something — anything — before the sword of Damocles falls. And maybe, just maybe, they can open a few eyes among those who have been waiting, like Arafat, for “the womb of the Arab woman” to put an end to the Jewish state.

Jeff Jacoby..
Boston Globe..
26 June '13..

ISRAEL IS “running out of time,” Secretary of State John Kerry told the American Jewish Committee in Washington this month. A two-state solution to the Palestinian conflict must be reached soon or “the insidious campaign to de-legitimize Israel will only gain steam,” he warned. “Israel will be left to choose between being a Jewish state or a democratic state, but it will not be able to fulfill the founders’ visions of being both at once.”

It’s an old refrain, erroneous but popular: Israel must make peace with the Palestinians before high Arab birthrates turn the Jews into a minority in their own land.

In Jerusalem a few months ago, President Obama echoed the same claim.

“Given the demographics west of the Jordan River, the only way for Israel to endure and thrive as a Jewish and democratic state is through the realization of an independent and viable Palestine.”

This so-called “demographic argument” may sound compelling, even ominous. But it rests on an obsolete stereotype of Arab women as baby mills, outbreeding their Jewish sisters at such a pace that it is only a matter of time before Jews are numerically overwhelmed.

In the 1960s, when the fertility rate for Israeli Arabs (9.2 births per woman) soared far above that of Israeli Jews (3.4 births per woman), that demographic challenge certainly seemed plausible. Yasser Arafat liked to say that the ultimate weapon in his arsenal against the Jewish state was “the womb of the Arab woman.” The Palestinian Authority has always understood the propaganda value of population data. As the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics began its first census in the West Bank and Gaza in 1997, the bureau’s director, Hassan Abu Libdeh, assured The New York Times that the results would amount to nothing less than “a civil intifada.” In 2005, the bureau predicted that Jews would be a minority in “historic Palestine” (i.e., west of the Jordan River) by 2010. Now it says the tipping point will come by 2020.

Don’t count on it.

Sunday, April 7, 2013

Either dramatically mistaken or outrageously misleading

Yoram Ettinger..
Israel Hayom..
05 April 13..

On March 21, U.S. President Barack Obama stated at the International Convention Center that "given the demographics west of the Jordan River, the only way for Israel to endure and thrive as a Jewish and democratic state is through the realization of an independent and viable Palestine."

Obama has been misinformed by his advisers. The suggestion that Israel should concede Jewish geography to secure Jewish demography ignores demographic trends in Israel, in the Muslim world in general and west of the Jordan River in particular. These trends reaffirm that time is working in favor of Israel's Jewish demography.

Currently, in sharp contrast with the demographic establishment's projections, there is a 66 percent Jewish majority (6.3 million Jews) in the combined area of pre-1967 Israel (1.65 million Arabs) and Judea and Samaria (1.66 million Arabs), compared with a 40% Jewish minority in 1948 and a 9% Jewish minority in 1900. The Jewish majority enjoys a robust tailwind of high fertility rates and immigration, which could produce an 80% Jewish majority by 2035.

Tuesday, August 14, 2012

The Two-State Religion No Longer Passes the Laughing Test

Emmanuel Navon..
For the Sake of Zion..
14 August '12..

The main rationale of the Oslo Accords was that establishing a 23rd Arab state ten miles away from Tel-Aviv would bring peace to Israel and stability to the Middle-East. This theory no longer passes the laughing test. Besides the bloody mess engendered by Oslo, the so-called “Arab Spring” has brought the European-inspired model of Arab nation-states to its knees. So why resuscitate a failed and dying model for a fictitious “Palestinian people” that has embraced Islamism like the rest of the Arab world?

Because of demography, of course. A Palestinian state might not bring peace, we are told, but it is nonetheless a necessity to save Israel from turning into a bi-national or a segregationist country. Since proponents of the “two-state solution” were so wrong about peace, why assume that they are so right about demography?

The two-state solution has become a two-state religion, so let me indulge in blasphemy.

For a start, Gaza is now out of the equation. The “demographic threat” must therefore be gauged in pre-1967 Israel as well as in Judea and Samaria, i.e. in what is known as “the area between the River and the Sea” (referred to as “the area” in this article).

The case for the “demographic threat” is based on a census conducted in 1997 by the “Palestine Central Bureau of Statistics” (PCBS). According to that census, there were 2.78 million Arabs in Judea and Samaria in 1997. This figure surprised many at the time because a similar census conducted by the Israeli Central Bureau of Statistics (ICBS) in 1996 had revealed that the number of Arab residents in Judea and Samaria was of 2.11 million. How could the Arab population have increased so rapidly within a year?

The answer is that the PCBS included 325,000 overseas residents and double-counted the 210,000 Arab residents of Jerusalem. In 2011, there were about 400,000 Arab residents of Judea and Samaria living overseas. They are still included in the PCBS demographic count. According to internationally accepted demographic standards, overseas residents who are abroad for over a year are not counted demographically. The PCBS does not abide by this international standard (Israel does). Yet Israel’s public discourse on the “demographic threat” is based on the PCBS’ flawed census.

The PCBS also assumed, back in 1997, that there would be an annual net Arab immigration to Judea, Samaria and Gaza of 45,000. In reality, there has been an annual net Arab emigration from Judea, Samaria and Gaza of 25,000 on average.

Wednesday, June 6, 2012

Tobin - What Six Days Achieved

Jonathan S. Tobin..
Commentary/Contentions..
05 June '12..

Forty-five years ago today, the Six-Day War began. But rather than this being an occasion for the world to remember when Israel’s existence hung in the balance, it is, instead, merely being used as an opportunity for pundits and critics to urge the Jewish state to recreate in some way the world of June 5, 1967. In one such column, Jeffrey Goldberg resurrects the now familiar theme that Israel’s famous victory was actually a defeat because it left the Jewish state in possession of the West Bank. For Goldberg, the only way for Israel to finally win the war that began on that day is for it to begin a process of unilateral withdrawal from the territories.

Goldberg’s thesis is that the demographic threat from the Arab population of both the West Bank and pre-1967 Israel to the country’s Jewish majority requires the withdrawal of Jewish settlements even if a peace accord is not in sight. Goldberg’s support for another Israeli attempt at unilateralism is misguided, because the experience of Gaza proved that such tactics lead only to grief, and no critic of Israel will think better of it if the settlers are removed but troops remain. But the assumption that the outcome of that war is still in the balance and depends on Israel’s exit from the territories is flawed. It misunderstands the nature of the conflict and Israel’s ability to transform the attitudes of its neighbors or the world. So long as the goal of Israel’s foes is its destruction and not merely withdrawal from the West Bank or parts of Jerusalem, the only way to look at the Six-Day War or the current impasse is through the prism of survival, not the world’s perceptions. That was just as true 45 years ago when Israel’s government was instructed by the world — including the United States — to sit back and wait to be attacked as it is today.

Friday, December 9, 2011

Ettinger - Straw people

Yoram Ettinger
Israel Hayom
08 December '11

http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=976

The prophets of demographic doom have contended, since the establishment of modern-day Zionism in 1897 and the Jewish state in 1948, that the Jews are doomed to become a minority west of the Jordan River. The facts prove them wrong!

In 2011, in defiance of demographic fatalism, Israel’s Jewish demography is benefiting from a tailwind while Arabs throughout the Middle East are experiencing a demographic headwind.

The annual number of Jewish births, for instance, has surged by 56 percent since 1995 – reflecting a rising fertility rate (number of births per woman) - while the annual number of Israeli Arab births has grown by 10% - reflecting a sharp decline in fertility rate.

The annual number of Israel’s Jewish births has expanded from 69% of total births, in 1995, to 76% of total births in 2011. In 1995, there were 2.3 Jewish births per each Arab birth, compared with 3.1 Jewish births per each Arab birth in 2011.

The secular Jewish sector – especially the olim (immigrants) from the former USSR and the Tel Aviv area yuppies - is mostly responsible for the demographic surge. At the same time, the ultra-Orthodox sector is experiencing a drop in fertility, resulting from its gradual integration into the employment market and expanded service in the Israel Defense Forces.

Thursday, December 8, 2011

Ackerman - Ending Fatalism About Israel’s Future

Matthew Ackerman
Commentary/Contentions
07 December '11

http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2011/12/07/fatalism-israel-demographics/#more-776841

The JTA reports today that new population data show that during the past decade the fertility rate of Jews in Israel is on the rise compared to Arabs and other minorities in the country. Contrary to the demographic doom scenarios widely accepted both among Israeli and American elites, the most recent data are part of a growing collection of evidence that points to a stable and potentially growing Jewish majority in Israel proper, and perhaps even with the West Bank included.

Rather than having to make desperate moves in the peace process as a result of demographic trends, Israel may very well be in control of its own destiny, something all who are concerned for the Jewish state’s future should gladly accept.

The trends in the recent data are clear: whereas in 2001 Jewish births accounted for 69 percent of the Israeli total, in 2010 they represented 76 percent. This follows another study last year which found a 50 percent rise in the Jewish birthrate in Israel from 1994. (For those who assume the increase is due only to growth in the haredi sector, the birthrate for secular Jewish women was found to be 2.6 and rising, the highest in the Western world.) These new data points come years into a substantive debate in Israel about the accuracy of commonly cited Palestinian birthrates and population numbers, which are not collected with nearly the same rigor as in Israel, and are largely projections from a 1997 (unrepeated) census. All of which has led some researchers to conclude that the Palestinian population in the West Bank may be overstated by as much as 1 million, which, if true, would of course dramatically change population projections for a territory that already holds more than 300,000 Jews.

Sunday, October 2, 2011

Ettinger - Demographic optimism in the new year

Yoram Ettinger
Israel Hayom
28 September '11

http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=569


(While not relevant to the discussion of Eretz Yisrael as the eternal home of the Jewish people, the fear engendered by the demographics discussion should be addressed)

On the eve of the Jewish New Year 5772, the Jewish fertility rate of 2.97 births per woman exceeds the fertility rates in most Arab countries.

In defiance of conventional wisdom, Israeli Jewish fertility has been robust -- primarily due to a surge in secular Jewish birth rate -- while in the Muslim world rapid modernization has led to a sharp decline, down to 1.7 births per woman in Iran, 2.8 in Jordan, 2.5 in Egypt, 2.5 in most Persian Gulf states (except for Saudi Arabia, with 4 births per woman), and 1.9 in North Africa.

Since the 1940s, Israel's demographers have maintained that Jews are doomed to become a minority between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean, and that it is incumbent on the Jewish state to concede Jewish geography (Judea and Samaria) in order to secure Jewish demography.

In fact, Professor Roberto Bacchi, the founder of the Israel Central Bureau of Statistics and the mentor of contemporary Israeli statisticians and demographers, projected in 1948 that by 2001 there would be no more than 2.3 million Jews in Israel -- a 33% minority west of the Jordan River.

However, all demographic prophecies of doom have crashed on the rocks of reality. West of the Jordan River (in the combined area of Judea and Samaria and pre-1967 Israel), Jews have gone from a minority of 8 percent in 1900 and 33% in 1947 to a solid majority of 66% in 2011, comprising almost six million people. The current demographic tailwind should further expand the Jewish majority.

Wednesday, September 7, 2011

Fresnozionism - Answering the demographic argument

Fresnozionism.org
06 September '11

http://fresnozionism.org/2011/09/answering-the-demographic-argument/


On Sunday I found myself ‘stunned’ by the remarks of Hedva Radovanitz, a former officer of the New Israel Fund (NIF) who said that she believed that

in 100 years Israel would be majority Arab and that the disappearance of a Jewish state would not be the tragedy that Israelis fear since it would become more democratic.

Today I understand that I shouldn’t have been surprised. This point of view is not really all that rare among the Jewish Left.

I suppose the stunning part is the way they can throw away the idea of a Jewish state so easily, when creating it was so difficult. Apparently keeping it may be as difficult or more so.

To my surprise, I received an answer from another former board member of the NIF and a member of the steering committee of Shatil, its “operational arm” in Israel. I don’t have permission to use his name, but he is a serious academic, someone that nobody would call an extremist. Here is what he wrote: