Syria Reimposes Its Patronage over Lebanon

H. Varulkar/N. Mozes
MEMRI
24 May '10

Introduction

"...[Syria's] political return to Lebanon is taking place slowly but surely, by means of its allies in [this country], whose numbers are growing and whose voice is becoming stronger. It is regaining its influence [over Lebanon] quietly and without military [force], placing more [emphasis] on diplomacy than it did in the past..."[1]

Thus columnist Emil Khouri described the reality in Lebanon in Al-Nahar, a Lebanese daily which is close to the March 14 Forces.

Five years after a Western-Arab-Lebanese front emerged to oppose Syria's presence in Lebanon, forcing Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad to withdraw the military and security forces that had been there since 1976 and had provided the military backing for Syria's control of Lebanon, Syria seems to be regaining its control over Lebanon. This is coming about with the backing – or at least with the acquiescence – of the very forces that five years ago led the campaign for the Syrian withdrawal.

While as of this writing Syria has not redeployed its army in Lebanon, its return to the country seems to be taking place not quite as Khouri describes – that is, not strictly by diplomatic means – but as Ghassan Sa'ud, columnist for the pro-Syrian Lebanese daily Al-Akhbar writes: "Syria is reorganizing its affairs [in Lebanon], drawing a clear line between those who are with it and those who are against it, leaving no room to maneuver."[2]

In this endeavor, Syria is proceeding gradually, keeping an eye on the reactions in Lebanon and outside it. Syrian officials, headed by President Assad himself, are careful to declare their support for, and recognition of, Lebanon's sovereignty and independence, citing as evidence the reestablishment of diplomatic ties between the countries. However, these statements and measures appear to be mere formalities, to allay the fears of those who oppose the return of Syria's patronage over Lebanon. In practice, Syria is setting an increasing number of conditions and demands for its opponents in Lebanon, and for various regional and international elements, with the aim of consolidating its control over the country. For example, the pro-Syrian Al-Akhbar reported recently that Syria is demanding that Lebanese Prime Minister Sa'd Al-Hariri reaffirm agreements that the two countries signed during the period of Syria's patronage over Lebanon,[3] thus bringing back the situation that prevailed prior to the 2005 Syrian military withdrawal.

Recently, Syria has stepped up the pace of its return to Lebanon, as its confidence increases due to greater international openness towards it during this past year, and the international community's tacit consent to its involvement in Lebanon.[4] Other possible factors in the acceleration of its activity in Lebanon are the increasing tension between Syria and Israel, the anticipation of an imminent international decision on Iran's nuclear dossier, and the release of the International Criminal Court's (ICC) conclusions on the assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafiq Al-Hariri.

This paper will review how Syria is reclaiming its patronage over Lebanon.

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Analysis: Coalition agreement not withstanding, Hizbullah will continue to hold sway in Lebanon

Political power grows out of the barrel of a gun, as a famous Chinese leader once said. In Lebanon, the guns are in the hands of Hizbullah.

Jonathan Spyer
JPost/Opinion
08 November 09

Following statements from both government and opposition sides in Lebanon over the weekend, it now looks likely that Prime Minister-elect Saad Hariri will announce the formation of a new governing coalition in the next few days.

The announcement that a deal has been reached on a unity government was made by the Hizbullah-led March 8 opposition movement after a meeting on Friday.

The details of the deal have not yet been made clear, but it appears that the main stumbling blocks have been overcome.

The formation of a new government will bring to an end four months of political paralysis in Lebanon, following the victory of the pro-western March 14 coalition in general elections in June.

However, the new government will have no bearing on the key political fact looming over Lebanon today: namely, the existence of a parallel state maintained by Hizbullah, which makes its decisions without consulting the nominal rulers of the country.

The deadlock regarding the formation of the government was itself related to the agenda of the Hizbullah parallel state. It is worth remembering that agreement for the formula of cabinet appointments was reached in July. But this agreement solved little.

Hariri was determined to prevent the opposition from obtaining veto power in the new government. To exercise a veto over cabinet decisions, the opposition needed to control at least 11 portfolios in the 30-member cabinet - that is, one-third plus one of the cabinet seats.

In July, both sides accepted a formula of 15 portfolios for the March 14 coalition, 10 for the opposition, and five to be appointed by President Michel Suleiman.

The key issue then became the identity of the ministers to be appointed by the president. If only one of them were to be inclined toward the opposition, this would mean that Hizbullah would effectively have kept the veto it exercised before June. Since the final names have not yet been announced, it is too soon to draw any firm conclusions in this regard.

It looks likely, however, that Hariri has compromised in another key area.

Hariri announced after the election that he was determined to keep the Telecommunications Ministry for his party. The Hizbullah-led opposition was equally determined to obtain this portfolio for themselves.

Hizbullah maintains a large-scale independent communications network which is an essential part of its military stance vis a vis Israel. Its determination to keep this network away from government scrutiny was one of the factors that triggered the fighting in Beirut in May 2008.
(Continue to read...)