Israeli security experts, assumptions, and the lessons of the the next missile war - by Jonathan Tobin

...This wouldn’t be the first time the assumptions of Israeli military leaders were mistaken—the 1973 Yom Kippur War and the 2006 Lebanon War being just two such examples. The lessons of the last and the next missile war don’t just apply to those tasked with defending the Jewish state against Hamas and Hezbollah. They also apply to those who would further burden its defense by the creation of yet another potential terrorist missile launching pad in the West Bank.

Jonathan S. Tobin..
Commentary Magazine..
09 December '16..
Link: https://www.commentarymagazine.com/foreign-policy/middle-east/israel/the-lessons-of-the-next-missile-war/

Israelis have slipped back into a degree of complacence about the missile threat from Gaza since the war in 2015. The same could be said about their level of concern about a repeat of the 2006 conflict with Lebanon in which the terrorist group rained down missiles on northern Israel. Due to the success of the Iron Dome anti-missile system developed with the United States and the devastating counter-attacks against both Hezbollah and Hamas by the Israel Defense Forces, the terrorist groups are believed to understand they have more to lose than to gain from another war. But assumptions are no guarantee, and the Israeli government and military may not be taking into account the increase in the arsenals possessed by their enemies or whether sufficient resources have been allocated to ensure adequate civil defense in the event of another war with either or both.

That was the conclusion of a recently published report by Israel’s State Controller about Operation Protective Edge — Israel’s counterattack against Hamas terrorists in 2014. It pointed out shortcomings in the government and army’s response to the war as well as the possible impact on future conflicts. Up to two million Israelis don’t have access to adequate shelters in the event of missile or rocket attacks. The country’s early warning system also was found to be faulty and may not be able to detect all possible forms of attack or give citizens adequate time to seek shelter.

After extensive re-armament campaigns financed in part by Iran, both Hamas and Hezbollah may now be in possession of so many rockets that Israel’s highly successful missile defense systems might be overwhelmed. Throw in the possibility that as a result of the Syrian civil war, Hezbollah may now be in possession of at least some of the Assad regime’s chemical weapons arsenal, and the report paints a potentially fearful picture.

Lebanon Warned, Lebanon's Responsibility.

Ruthie Blum..
Israel Hayom..
28 August '12..

If what was reported in Haaretz yesterday is true, then I would like to commend Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. I am not referring here to the brouhaha surrounding his investment portfolio, but rather his alleged warning to the Lebanese government that it had better watch its step, or else.

On the investment portfolio, a scandal erupted when it emerged that Netanyahu had requested to shift some of his holdings. Though he did this through all the appropriate legal channels — and was given approval from the State Comptroller’s Office — opposition politicians seized upon the “incident” and were outraged. Ostensibly, they object to the fact that a person who is preparing for war in the near future shouldn’t be rushing to protect his stocks and bonds as a result of his assumption that the market is going to fluctuate.

Immediately, comparisons to former Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Dan Halutz began to fly faster than the Hamas rockets that have been landing on southern Israel in honor of the start of the school year. Halutz shamed himself badly when the first thing he did after two Israeli soldiers were captured by Hezbollah terrorists in August 2006 — the event that sparked the Second Lebanon War — was to phone his broker to sell his stock portfolio.

This is why Netanyahu withdrew his request to move his money around at this particular time. Too bad he didn’t anticipate the carryings on. He should have known it was going to ensue, especially now, with the whole country up in arms (no pun intended) over Iran.

But we have to give him credit where it’s due — and it’s due him big-time on an issue that he has not discussed publicly. Indeed, even his office has declined to comment on it this week.

Apparently, Netanyahu sent a message to the Lebanese government — via a “Western diplomat” — to the effect that Israel will not tolerate Hezbollah attacks against its citizens, even if it means full-scale retaliation that includes the bombing of much of the country’s infrastructure.

This is a huge deal.

During the Second Lebanon War, then-Prime Minister Ehud Olmert kept insisting that Israel had no problem with Lebanon, and that its only enemy was Hezbollah.

"We have no quarrel with you," he assured the Lebanese people. "We look forward to a time when we will live together in quiet and cooperation … and hopefully in peace."

That distinction cost Israel many lives — and enabled Hezbollah to rebuild its network of terrorists and massive arsenals decimated by the war. It was a distinction that Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah, backed by his patrons in Tehran, has always counted on in confrontations with Israel. Indeed, it is what all terrorists rely on in their battle against the West. They know that Western democracies fear inflicting “collateral damage” more than they fear defeat. It is thus that Islamists situate themselves among innocent civilians, constructing munitions factories under kindergartens and placing key operatives in apartment buildings populated by regular people.

Roth - Quote of the day: What our neighbors are capable of doing

The web has hundreds of photos like this one:
 a terrorist groupfires a rocket from a densely
populated neighborhood of Gaza City into
Israel on January 8, 2009. [Source]. Two
hundred thousand more are in place and
ready to be fired when the order is given. 

Frimet/Arnold Roth..
This Ongoing War..
02 February '12..

There's a mind-numbing effect that sometimes follows from knowing the dimensions of an authentic life-and-death problem. What, to illustrate, will ordinary people living from the borders of Israel make of the disclosure today that 200,000 missiles are aimed at Israel by our terrorist enemies?

That's the serious, realistic and professional assessment given by the head of Israel's military intelligence, Major General Aviv Kochavi today in a formal address to the Herzliya Conference and quoted in Haaretz. APF quotes him saying:

"One in every 10 houses in south Lebanon is a storage facility for missiles or rockets or a launch pad for devices that are increasingly accurate and destructive. From Lebanon, Syria and of course from Iran, they can hit the heart of our cities, and the whole region of Tel Aviv is within their reach."

How do you even go about visualizing 200,000 rockets?

Turning to the threat from the east that tops the list of security concerns here, Kochavi said the IDF believes Iran already has more than 4 tons of low-grade enriched uranium and 100 kilograms of uranium enriched at 20%. Once this supply is enriched to the 90% level, the Iranians will have sufficient to produce 4 nuclear bombs. And then? "They will need a year from when the order is given," Kochavi is quoted saying, "to produce a weapon."

Link: http://thisongoingwar.blogspot.com/2012/02/2-feb-12-quote-of-day-what-our.html


Updates throughout the day at http://calevbenyefuneh.blogspot.com. If you enjoy "Love of the Land", please be a subscriber. Just put your email address in the "Subscribe" box on the upper right-hand corner of the page.
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Rockets are a terror weapon

What used to be a basic tenet of Israel's defense doctrine - that in war, the safety of the civilian population must be assured - has gradually been abandoned. Now, military spokesmen announce that in case of war, Israel's entire civilian population can expect to be hit by terrorist rockets.

Moshe Arens
Haaretz
28 December '10

Terrorists have used pistols and automatic rifles to kill individuals. They have used suicide bombers with pinpoint accuracy to kill groups assembled in places of entertainment. They have used aircraft to kill hundreds and thousands. But the most effective terror weapon has become the ballistic rocket. It is cheap and launched from a distance against civilian targets, allowing the terrorists to escape before the rocket lands.

For some years now, Israel's civilian population has been targeted by terrorist rockets: first Katyusha rockets in the north launched by Hezbollah terrorists, and then Qassam rockets in the south launched by Hamas terrorists. Initially there were tens of rockets, then there were hundreds. But now, the threat comes from tens of thousands of rockets directed at Israel's civilian population.

Moreover, at first only certain border areas were threatened. But now, the entire country is under the threat of terrorist rocket attacks.

What used to be a basic tenet of Israel's defense doctrine - that in war, the safety of the civilian population must be assured - has gradually been abandoned. Now, military spokesmen announce that in case of war, Israel's entire civilian population can expect to be hit by terrorist rockets. This is a fundamental change for the worse in Israel's strategic posture.

How have we allowed this intolerable situation to creep up on us? Were our leaders asleep, not aware of what was happening around us?

Tony Blair slated for supporting Israel in his new memoirs, liberal establishment aghast

Robin Shepherd
robinshepherdonline.com
09 September '10

It was only a question of time before discussion of Tony Blair’s recently published memoirs — A Journey– turned to the question of his support for Israel. The Big Obsession is what it is, and we should not be surprised.

It is nonetheless interesting to see how the mainstream established media is dealing with the matter.A piece in today’s Guardian by MidEast “analyst” Chris Phillips is instructive. Phillips holds all the standard views, so there is no great shock value from his description of Blair’s reasoned and principled stance in supporting Israel’s right to resist Hezbollah aggression in the 2006 war as “his other major misjudgment in the Middle East” — the first one, obviously, being his decision to join America in invading Iraq.

What is so fascinating — and so representative of the genre — is his complete and utter incredulity at Blair’s refusal to bow to liberal-left precepts, alternatives to which, he appears to believe, can only exist in the minds of people subject to some sort of demonic possession.

The following is typical:

“As the Shia militia fired rockets at Israeli cities and the IDF responded with massive bombings in Lebanon, Blair was urged by a huge swell of public opinion, the media, his cabinet and foreign policy advisers to join European leaders in calling for an immediate unconditional ceasefire.

“Yet the prime minister stubbornly defied this advice and endorsed the Bush administration’s approach of foot-dragging on a UN ceasefire, allegedly to allow Israel more time to “knock out” Hezbollah.”

In other words: How dare he! Did he not realise that the Guardian and the BBC had spoken?

(Read full post)

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Victims of Hezbollah Rocket Attacks File Lawsuit Against Al-Jazeera TV in New York Federal Court

www.israellawcenter.org
13 July '10

NEW YORK/ On the fourth anniversary of start of the Lebanese-Israeli War, ninety-one American, Israeli and Canadian victims of Hezbollah rocket attacks filed an unprecedented lawsuit against the Qatar-based Al-Jazeera television network. The suit, Kaplan et al. v. Al Jazeera (Case No.: 10 CV 5298), which was filed in federal court in Manhattan, seeks $1.2 billion in compensatory damages plus punitive damages.

The plaintiffs, whose family members were killed or who were themselves injured by rockets fired at Israel by Hezbollah between July 12 and August 14, 2006, allege that Al-Jazeera intentionally reported live coverage of the locations of the missile strikes inside of Israel in violation of military censorship regulations, in order to enable Hezbollah to aim the missiles more accurately.

Al-Jazeera camera crews in Israel during the war were repeatedly detained by the Israeli police for broadcasting real-time information regarding the location of missile strikes, which Hezbollah utilized to more accurately aim their missiles at civilian population centers.

(Read full story)

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