Casualty Coverage Update - Egypt vs. Israel

UPDATE: The death count for Wednesday now seems to be 535, which is more than the number of Arabs killed by the IDF since the beginning of 2010.


Elder of Israel..
14 August '13..

A few things are notable about the current fighting in Egypt between the government and the supporters of Morsi in comparison to how the media covers Israel.

Firstly, as of this writing, the death toll in less than 24 hours is 281, mostly civilians (no matter what you think of the Muslim Brotherhood, while some of them are armed, most of the protesters were peaceful.)

Last November, Israel and Gaza terror groups fought Pillar of Defense. Israel dropped hundreds of bombs on Gaza and the news coverage was non-stop, as was the vitriol against Israel for supposed wanton killings and disregard for civilian lives.

The one day with the most Arab casualties in Pillar of Defense was November 18. Guess how many were killed by Israel's fearsome war machine on that day?

35.

Either the Egyptian security forces' bullets are far more deadly than Israel's bombs and missiles - or Israel was extraordinarily careful in who they targeted and how.

In fact, in one day, Egypt has killed more Arabs than Israel did since January 2012 - including Pillar of Defense!

Also, the number of civilians killed in the current fighting is much, much higher than the number killed by Israel since the end of 2011.

There is another double standard to the reporting that is important to note as well.

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Is President Mohamed Morsi Preparing for War?

Evelyn Gordon..
Commentary/Contentions..
10 September '12..

When the Muslim Brotherhood’s candidate won Egypt’s presidential elections, the comforting theory pronounced by diplomats and pundits worldwide was that power would force the Brotherhood to moderate its views: Once in power, its first priority would have to be rescuing Egypt’s shattered economy, and this would force it to avoid radical steps liable to antagonize Western donors.

That power isn’t moderating the Brotherhood is crystal clear already: Within two months of taking office, President Mohamed Morsi had already blatantly violated the cardinal principle of the peace treaty with Israel–the demilitarization of Sinai–by sending tanks into the area near the Israeli border without first obtaining Israel’s permission. But now it turns out the Brotherhood also doesn’t care about the economy. It’s only Morsi’s third month in office, and he is already negotiating to spend hundreds of millions of dollars he doesn’t have on something that won’t help the economy one whit: two state-of-the-art submarines from Germany.

The price tag for a new German submarine is about $510 million, meaning two would cost over $1 billion. Thus Morsi is planning to waste more than a fifth of the $4.8 billion loan he just requested from the International Monetary Fund not on helping Egypt’s economy–the ostensible purpose for which he sought the money–but on acquiring expensive military equipment for which Egypt has no conceivable need: It isn’t currently facing a maritime threat from any country or terrorist organization, nor is there reason to think it will in the future.

From Israel - Focused and Current

Arlene Kushner..
23 August '12..





The focus is on the situation in the Sinai:

Amos Gilad, head of the Political Diplomatic Bureau at the Ministry of Defense, said yesterday that Israel is in constant contact with the Egyptians and that we are being heard.

"When the Egyptians introduce weapons that are not included in the agreement we check it and we talk to the Egyptians about it. We have direct communication with the Egyptians and we have made it clear that we demand a complete adherence to the terms of the peace agreement.

"It is important to safeguard the Military Appendix of the peace agreement; it is the cornerstone of the peace agreement and regional stability. We look at the total regional picture: we have a changing Middle East, Iran going nuclear, and it is an important time to maintain the peace agreement. We will not agree to a violation of the Military Appendix of the peace agreement. Israel is keeping things in proportion, and we are standing fast by our interests. (Emphasis added)

"We are in constant contact with the Egyptians. They are fighting against an al-Qaida-like group of terrorists whose aim is to carry out strategic attacks that would force a confrontation between Israel and Egypt."

http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_article.php?id=5508

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Dore Gold, President of the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, has provided a description, cited by the NY Times, of the political/diplomatic ramifications of the situation:

"To the extent that the Egyptian government challenges the clauses of the treaty of peace with Israel, it undermines the regional peace process as a whole - it's a big deal. If you don't state clearly what your concerns are as the Egyptians increase their forces in Sinai, you could end up with a fait accompli that undermines your most vital security interest." (Emphasis added)

Well... it does appear that we are doing that. Not letting any grass grow under our feet. Not turning a blind eye. But challenging the Egyptians when they test the limits of what we will permit.

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With all this said, it's not quite clear to me what "we are being heard" -- the claim of Gilad -- means. Has Egypt removed tanks that Israel said were not approved? I've not seen pictures. Nor have I accessed any reports indicating such.

(Which is not to say that our protest is unimportant -- even if not heeded. Not at all. It establishes our position and sets the stage for whatever might follow next.)

From Israel - Those Tanks

Arlene Kushner..
22 August '12..





But before I speak about tanks, I want to share good news, as I had promised:

Many of you on this list have been following the situation of the nine-year old Noam Jay ben Inbar, who was found to have cancer growing in his heart and on his lung and was thought to be terminal. About two months ago, an MRI that was done showed that since the last scan there had been no further growth of the large mass, which had been aggressively enlarging. And so it was decided to start him on an experimental drug. I understand that the form of cancer this boy has is so rare that a case is seen perhaps once in 20 years.

I learned yesterday that Noam has been permitted to come home, with the understanding that regular checks will be necessary. His most recent MRI showed a modest decrease in the size of the tumor. He's got a very long way to go, but this is the first sign of a reversal of a condition that the doctors not so long ago had thought was hopeless.

And so, Baruch Hashem, may he continue to improve. And please, continue to pray for him.

As to those tanks: PM Netanyahu is walking a tightrope. And the situation here is as filled with complexities and nuances as anything I've written about in my last few posts.

The tanks are being brought into the Sinai by Egypt. It is not clear whether they are the first to be brought in, or, as one report indicated, they are heavier, US-made tanks that were not included in the recent understanding between Egypt and Israel.

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Credit: rfi

There seems a disagreement as to whether this deployment is a violation of the 1979 Israeli-Egyptian peace treaty. That tanks are forbidden in a demilitarized Sinai is clear. But Israel is granting permission for troops and equipment to be brought in beyond the limits of the treaty, and considers it acceptable under the circumstances.

What is significant for Israel is that the Egyptians ask, and that our government have a say in what is deployed. The Israeli government says there was no approval for these tanks.

The Egyptians are saying that this is in coordination with Israel, as approval was given, without a time limit, for equipment to be brought in to "purge the area of armed criminals," as one officer put it. The Egyptians are bristling at the notion that everything has to be cleared with Israel: permission was given to do the job and that should be enough.

For the Egyptians there are sensitive issues of national sovereignty -- they deeply resent not being permitted to do as they choose in the Sinai.

Full Egyptian Rearming of the Sinai - with US Help

Shoshana Bryen..
Gatestone Institute..
20 August '12..

Egypt has moved forces into the Sinai beyond what was agreed to in the Egypt-Israel Peace Treaty. Getting them in wasn't that difficult – Israel agrees that security in the Sinai has deteriorated. Getting them out again later may be another matter. And how the U.S. positions itself to safeguard the treaty itself will be crucial.

One of the lesser-known American military deployments is as part of the Multinational Force & Observers in the Sinai (MFO), inserted in 1981. Its mission is to "supervise the implementation of the security provisions of the Egyptian-Israeli Treaty of Peace and employ best efforts to prevent violations of its terms." The MFO consists of 1,656 soldiers from 12 nations[1] and, according to its website, operates checkpoints, reconnaissance patrols and observation posts; verifies the continued implementation of various arms limitations in the Sinai; ensures freedom of navigation through the Strait of Tiran; and monitors the deployment of border guards along the Egyptian side of the Gaza/Egypt border to ensure that it meets the terms agreed to by Israel and Egypt in 2005.

The MFO, clearly, is not a fighting force; it is a peacekeeping force with an agreed-upon peace to keep.

So how odd it is that Defense Secretary Leon Panetta has announced that the U.S. "is providing additional military assistance to peacekeeping forces in Egypt's Sinai Peninsula to strengthen security in the region."

Formation of Global Jihadi Networks in Sinai: The Role of Hamas

Lt. Col. (ret.) Jonathan D. Halevi..
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs..
Vol. 12, No. 18..
15 August '12..

After the Rafah attack, it was noticeable that the Egyptian government refrained from condemning the terrorists’ plan to carry out a mass-casualty attack in Israel. Indeed, senior Muslim Brotherhood figures pointed an accusing finger at Israel, claiming it was behind the attack in an attempt to create a rift between Egypt and Hamas.

Apart from the anti-Israel propaganda line, the investigation of the attack by Egyptian intelligence found tracks leading in the direction of Gaza. Security sources in Egypt told the Egyptian newspaper Al-Youm al-Saba that the Palestinian organization Army of Islam was responsible for the attack. They said that the day before it occurred, there was a meeting in one of the homes of the Army of Islam’s leader in Rafah; about 35 activists participated, and it was decided to carry out the attack.

Egypt’s policy is similar to that of Hamas toward the Salafi terror organizations within its territory: the regime views the organizations as legitimate and does not intend to proscribe them so long as they do not undermine the central government or harm its basic interests. Similar to Hamas, Egypt seeks to “tame” the Salafi organizations, put an end to their subversion, neutralize their potential damage to Egypt’s internal stability, and subject them to the new rules of the game, which will allow them limited freedom for jihad activity without infringing on Egyptian interests or entangling Egypt in direct responsibility for terror.

Egypt’s supreme interest is to alter the terms of the Camp David agreement and enable full Egyptian sovereignty over all of Sinai, including in the military domain. In the government’s view, terror activity from the Egyptian border that does not stamp Egypt as directly responsible, helps exert pressure in Sinai, compelling Israel to agree to a permanent military deployment in the territory and making the demand for a change in the agreement an Israeli interest without Egypt paying any political price for it.

Ramadan as a month of triumph. But who is the triumphant one?

"Anyone who takes the deployment of Egyptian tanks and helicopters in Sinai too lightly, regarding it as merely necessary at this point in time, may soon get slapped in the face by reality. If you think that Egypt's deployment in Sinai is intended merely to take care of Israel's Sinai terror problem, you may have to think again."

Dr. Liad Porat..
Israel Hayom..
15 August '12..

Dr. Mohammed Badie, the supreme guide of the Muslim Brotherhood, describes the month of Ramadan in his weekly missive as a month of triumph. This begs the question, however, of who is the triumphant one, and who is the defeated one, as of today?

During the Free Officer's Revolution in Egypt in July of 1952, talks were held between the officers' leadership and the Muslim Brotherhood. Gamal Abdel Nasser Hussein, then president of Egypt, dedicated days and hours to meetings with the heads of the Brotherhood in efforts to understand their true nature and intentions. Once he was convinced that their ideological direction was contrary to his world view and posed a threat to him, Nasser sought an opportunity to strike them down.

In October of 1954, he found a way. Nasser gave a speech in Alexandria before signing an agreement that saw the withdrawal of British Armed Forces from Egypt. The speech was broadcast over transistor radios to all of Egypt, and in the background, eight shots were heard. The shots all missed the charismatic president. He immediately regained his composure, realizing that he had found the opportunity he had been waiting for. The following day, the Brotherhood was accused of having tried to assassinate the head of state; droves of Brotherhood members were arrested and thrown in jail. Thus, in one fell swoop, Nasser's regime paralyzed the Muslim Brotherhood's active and organized resistance.

The Free Officer's movement, led by the confident Nasser, ruled in Egypt for many years. It was Nasser's successor, Anwar Sadat, who later opened the prison doors and let the Brotherhood resume public activity. Sadat held a meeting at the start of his term with the imprisoned leader of the Brotherhood, and got the impression that the movement could help him establish his legitimacy. What actually happened, however, was that the creature turned on its creator: the Brotherhood, which Sadat expected to support him and to help him combat the Left and the Nasser-ites, were the ones who ultimately stripped him of his legitimacy. They did so in such a way as to encourage Sadat's eventual assassins.

Critical days with Egypt – not eroding force limits

Dr. Aaron Lerner..
IMRA Weekly Commentary..
09 August '12..




When you interact with a chess player you had better not think like a tic tac toe player.

And Egyptian President Mohamed Morsy is most definitely a chess player.

The decision to temporarily allow Egypt to deploy attack helicopters in Sinai very close to Israel’s border may very well be justified. But with emphasis on “temporary” and with a sincere hope that we were smart enough to formally establish just how unique the circumstances were.

Let’s be clear about the problem:

For years the Egyptians have been trying to erode the Sinai force restrictions set in the peace treaty they signed with Israel. Force restrictions that were a necessary condition for Israel agreeing to restore the Sinai to Egyptian control.

The Egyptians see the force restrictions as impinging on their sovereignty.

We always considered the force restrictions as critical for the Jewish State’s national security and, frankly speaking, with the Moslem Brotherhood leading Egypt, we need the force restrictions more than ever.

The Sinai: Israel's Dilemma

P. David Hornik..
frontpagemag.com..
08 August '12..

On Sunday night, terrorists at the Egyptian-Israeli border stormed a checkpoint and massacred 16 Egyptian border guards there. They then drove two vehicles toward Israel with the aim of perpetrating a mass-casualty attack against Israeli civilians—thwarted by the combined efforts of the Israeli ground forces and air force.

Yet, according to official statements of Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood and of Hamas, the rulers of Gaza, the attack was carried out by—Israel.

Israeli Foreign Ministry spokesman Yigal Palmor denounced such claims as “nonsense” and added: “Even the person who says this when he looks at himself in the mirror does not believe the nonsense he is uttering.”

There’s evidence that Palmor is right. Immediately after the attack, Hamas sealed off tunnels from Gaza into Sinai—since it’s suspected that small, non-Hamas, Gaza-based terror groups took part in the attack. Hamas, of course, does not really think Israeli operatives somehow got into Gaza, reached Sinai through the tunnels, and massacred Egyptian policemen before trying to ram one or two suicide vehicles full-speed into Israeli border villages.

The Egypt-Israel Cross-Border Attack: Its Meaning

Barry Rubin..
Rubin Reports..
07 August '12..

A 35-man seemingly bedouin terrorist team invaded an Egyptian army base in eastern Sinai, stole a truck and armored personnel carrier, and tried to crash the Israel border gate. They killed about 16 Egyptian soldiers but those who tried to cross the border–at least five–were quickly wiped out by Israeli forces.

You will be reading a lot of accounts of this event mostly saying the same things. But what’s really important?

–The incompetence of the Egyptian military. That a whole platoon size unit of terrorists–one of the largest such forces every assembled for such an attack–could plan, organize, and come together without warning for the Egyptian army speaks poorly for its intelligence capability. That they could break into a base doesn’t bode well for the Egyptian military’s competence. Presumably one reason why they wanted Egyptian vehicles–as happened with uniforms on a previous occasion–is to make Israeli soldiers hesitate to shoot or to end up getting Israelis to mistakenly kill Egyptians and set off a wider conflict.

–The attack was probably carried out by an al-Qaida type group allied with counterparts in the Gaza Strip. These organizations don’t care about the well-being of Hamas or the Muslim Brotherhood. By hitting Israel they seek to promote their image to carry out their goals. Yet the more they make enemies of the Muslim Brotherhood branches the more incentive those forces have to suppress them.

–To what extent, however, do these groups have backing from Egyptian Salafist forces or the Palestinian equivalent, Islamic Jihad? Such an alliance could greatly raise the level of violence and internal conflict, especially within Egypt. Is there a chance for the Brotherhood and Salafists to work together or will they clash?

Tobin - Living With Routine Terror

Jonathan S. Tobin..
Commentary/Contentions..
18 June '12..

It appears that what amounts to a military coup has removed the threat of a Muslim Brotherhood government in Egypt. That’s a great relief to many who feared that such an Islamist state abutting Hamas-ruled Gaza would overturn the situation that had simplified Israel’s strategic equation for more than 30 years. Whether the new military dictators in Cairo will help maintain the relative stability that existed under Hosni Mubarak is yet to be seen. Another question is whether the rage of frustrated Islamists and the others who fueled the country’s Arab Spring protests will bubble over into a bloody civil war that would also impact Israel.

But while the prospects of such spectacular disasters move to the back burner, Israelis must continue to cope with more routine horrors. This morning, a Gaza-based terror squad crossed Egyptian territory to launch an attack on Israel. They ambushed cars carrying civilian workers with rifle fire, anti-tank weapons and explosives. One Israeli, an Arab from Haifa, was killed. Israeli forces quickly pursued and killed two of the terrorists. The attack was reminiscent of a similar terrorist operation carried out further south near Eilat last year.

Mazel - Lawlessness and terror: The Beduin kingdom of Sinai

Israel watches with growing concern as peninsula is turning into lawless territory used by Hamas, jihadi organizations.

Zvi Mazel..
Op-Ed Contributor/JPost..
28 March '12..

Some 300,000 Beduin live in the vast Sinai peninsula – nearly three times the size of Israel – and more than a quarter of them still lead a nomadic existence. The country is difficult of access, harsh, mostly mountainous and desert wilderness. Egypt has been finding it increasingly difficult to maintain its authority there.

Though Sinai has been part of Egypt from the dawn of history, Beduin tribes who settled there hundreds of years ago lived according to their own traditions and enjoyed a relative autonomy, mainly left alone by the central government. They have their own judicial system based on ancient customs and traditions which ensure the homogeneity of their society. There was no real attempt to penetrate this society and subordinate it to the judicial system of the country until the middle of the 19th century.

Even then Cairo was essentially interested in ensuring the safety of the trade routes and protecting Muslims making their way to Mecca and Christian pilgrims going to the Santa Katharina monastery. Local personal and tribal conflicts and property issues were left to the traditional Beduin system. Even today, the uneasy coexistence between the Egyptian and Beduin judicial systems goes on.

When Sinai was under Israeli rule – from the Six Day War in 1967 to the evacuation of Sinai in 1982 according to the peace treaty, it laid down the basis of a tourist infrastructure which was later developed by Egypt and which turned the peninsula into one of the main source of foreign currency. Israeli authorities enjoyed good relations with the Beduin and tried to improve their lot.

Once returned to Egypt, there was greater attention paid to the peninsula, now perceived as a buffer zone, while its tourist potential was being recognized. Efforts were made to develop the northern part of Sinai while new tourist infrastructure was built in the south. Special regulations were passed to prevent foreigners – i.e. Israelis – from purchasing land. The Beduin, however, were not part of that economic boom.

Anbar - The Changing Face of Sinai

With a new regime governing Egypt, the lawless Sinai Peninsula has become a breeding ground for Israel's enemies and their proxies. After more than thirty years of relative quiet on the border, Israel has a new potential threat to manage

Ariel Anbar..
israeldefense.com..
28 March '12..

Iran seldom misses an opportunity to exploit the weaknesses of its adversaries. As the power vacuum in Egypt may result in political and military changes that pose a threat to Israel, it is imperative for the Jewish state to re-evaluate and re-gentrify its strategy, and accordingly, re-allocate resources to its southwestern border.

With the Obama administration welcoming the participation of the Muslim Brotherhood in the post-Mubarak Egyptian government, Iran's proxy operations will flourish in the Sinai Peninsula – the new safe haven for global jihad – which is becoming an integral part of Iran’s expanding terror network and infrastructure.

Akin to its cultivation of ties with Hamas and Hezbollah, Iran is determined to increase its influence wherever it can. It appears that Iran has successfully seized the opportunity in Egypt and Sinai.

The West’s miscalculation of Egypt's strategic trajectory (as with Turkey’s) has resulted in the Sinai Peninsula becoming a front for Iranian terrorist activity. In addition, as the rift between the Egyptian civilian government and the military closes, Iran will have a fertile breeding ground to further its interests and intensify its operations.

Since the toppling of Mubarak's regime, the Egyptian military has permitted events to occur that can only lead one to conclude that Egypt is seeking to strengthen ties with Israel's enemies, rather than maintaining strategic cooperation with Israel.

IMRA - Egyptian force enhancement in Sinai under conditions of regime uncertainty

Dr. Aaron Lerner
IMRA
Weekly Commentary
01 September '11



Let’s keep this simple:

We have absolutely no idea who will be ruling Egypt in the near future.

That’s “near future”.

So policy recommendations vis-à-vis Egyptian force deployments in the Sinai in excess of the treaty that hinge their reasoning on the composition, intentions, or anything else of the currently ruling military regime are grossly short sighted.

Short sighted and irresponsible.

If anything, any policy recommendation on this matter must answer the following critical question:

What impact will there be on Israel’s security if Israel accepts Egyptian force deployment “X” in the Sinai in excess of the treaty and the regime ruling Egypt decides to support a military campaign against the Jewish State – either by actively participating in an invasion or by engaging in various maneuvers within Egypt that force Israel to divert military resources from other fronts facing an invasion.

That’s not to say that Israel must rule out any and all changes in the agreement.

Just that it must do it with eyes wide open, fully aware of the potential ramifications of the move.

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