Israel Hayom..
10 March '19..
Link: http://www.israelhayom.com/opinions/the-palestinians-dangerous-gamble/
With the election campaign in Israel picking up steam, Hamas is trying to influence the atmosphere in Israeli society through the use of its most "effective" weapons. Walking a tightrope, the terrorist organization is presenting the transitional government here in Israel with a dilemma posed by the missiles and the polls.
A year has passed since Hamas began to intensify the riots on Israel's border with the Gaza Strip. In time, it began to bolster them through the use of "improved" weapons such as incendiary kites and balloons. The border riots, which began after the the U.S. relocated its embassy to Jerusalem, enjoyed a tailwind from the impact they had on the residents of Israeli communities adjacent to Gaza.
When explosives-laden balloons and kites blackened the western Negev through the fires they caused last summer, we were reminded of former Chief of Staff Benny Gantz's "anemone speech," in which he declared at the height of 2014's Operation Protective Edge that quiet had been restored to southern Israel. Hamas was trying to pressure the Israeli government into agreeing to a long-term cease-fire, which would give Hamas with the opportunity to rebuild its forces.
With the Egyptian administration trying to mediate a cease-fire, Hamas continues to try and pressure the diplomatic echelon in Israel by holding residents of the south hostage. But the Israeli government has decided on a policy of containment. From a political standpoint, this proved the opponents of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu – who believed that in order to avoid investigations and stir up the electorate, he would take military action against Hamas – wrong. Instead, the government raised the operational need to address Hezbollah's cross-border terror tunnels in the north as justification for avoiding an escalation in the south. Netanyahu did not play into his opponents' hands with what would have been seen as a self-aggrandizing political move.
In recent months, the southern front has been relatively quiet, due in large part to the flow of Qatari aid into Gaza. For a while, Hamas even dialed down the border violence. But over the past month, we have seen a return to intense and violent clashes, the kind that escalate and include the firing of rockets and missiles from Gaza. For now, Israel has adhered to its policy of containment and sending messages behind the scenes.
Anyone can see that this escalation is no coincidence and that Hamas is trying to make a mockery of the Israeli government during an election season. But the terrorist group has it wrong.. The Israel Defense Forces has plans. It is well-trained and ready. The question remains: What benefits would there be to embarking on a military operation right now?
The only arguable advantage would be the restoration of deterrence to the southern border. None of the operations carried out following the 2005 disengagement from Gaza has resulted in long-term deterrence. The only option is to move toward action that will fundamentally change the reality on the ground. In the absence of political stability, the government is very unlikely to choose that option. As a result, Israel has opted for the tactic of responding to Hamas' provocations.
What we can expect in the coming months, then, is more of the same: periodic escalations that come close to but do not quite pass the point of no return. Both sides understand this but so do the Egyptians.
One thing is certain: Hamas has the most to lose from a large-scale escalation in the south, regardless of what kind of government is formed in Jerusalem. On this issue, at least, there is a consensus among the central candidates in the political arena: When it comes to Hamas, you don't talk, you fight.
One figure being tested at this time is new IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Aviv Kochavi. Thus far, Kochavi has employed the IDF's might in the north, continuing the efforts of the IDF's interwar efforts against Iranian infrastructure in Syria, but he has yet to be tested in the South. He is all too familiar with this arena: He commanded it and was also in charge when we withdrew from Gaza, an event one would be hard-pressed to call a success. One must hope that as spring arrives, we will not repeat the mistakes of the past. Between the missiles and the rockets, the military has a substantial role to play in neutralizing our enemies' attempts to influence the election campaign.
Col. (res.) Ronen Itsik is a former commander in the Armored Corps and author of “A Man in a Tank.”
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