An Impossible Scenario: The Third Party Guaranteeing of Israel's Security

...Please take note: the...scenario is optimistic as it doesn’t account for the possible involvement of non-Palestinian Arab/Moslem forces and countries that turn the Palestinian state into a bridgehead for preparing for the invasion and destruction of the Jewish State. At each step in this catastrophic development, Israel would most certainly be counseled to show restraint and address whatever new grievances that can be cooked up.

Dr. Aaron Lerner..
IMRA Weekly Commentary..
01 January '14..





Here’s the paradox:

If we made every possible concession to the Palestinians so that a sovereign Palestinian state actually came into being we would ultimately find ourselves facing even more pressure to make concessions.

I’ll walk you through it:

Stage #1 Ongoing Palestinian violations of weapons restrictions

+ Third party “Treaty Facilitating Force” (TFF) opts to ignore the violations raising tension between the countries/bodies associated with the TFF and Israel

+ Palestinian state files complaints with TFF against Israel for violating Palestinian sovereignty in the course of collecting evidence of Palestinian violations of weapons restrictions.

+ Foreign officials counsel Israel to abandon its insistence on Palestinian compliance and instead apply the “quiet for quiet” principle Israel accepted for Gaza (absolutely no limit on the weapons that can be deployed once successfully smuggled in and/or locally manufactured).

Stage #2 Terror attacks originating from the Palestinian state with press releases explaining that the attacks are in response to grievances against Israel

+ Israel warned to allow the Palestinian state to handle the incidents and not to violate Palestinian sovereignty.

+ TFF reports that Palestinian state working with due diligence.

+ Terror attacks continue.

+ Israeli actions in response

+ Palestinian state forces respond to Israeli violations of Palestinian sovereignty.

+ Calls for an “end to the cycle of violence” and for Israel to address the grievances raised by the Palestinian state.

+ TFF suffers casualties. TFF either withdraws completely or adopts a “three monkeys approach” (see no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil) for self preservation.

+ Even more pressure on Israel to address Palestinian grievances.

Please take note: the above scenario is optimistic as it doesn’t account for the possible involvement of non-Palestinian Arab/Moslem forces and countries that turn the Palestinian state into a bridgehead for preparing for the invasion and destruction of the Jewish State.

At each step in this catastrophic development, Israel would most certainly be counseled to show restraint and address whatever new grievances that can be cooked up.

And at each step Israel would be pressured to defer to the TFF while at the very same time nations contributing manpower to the TFF would resent that they are suffering casualties “defending Israel’s security” in a conflict they ultimately attribute to Israel’s refusal to satisfactorily resolve Palestinian grievances.

Link: http://www.imra.org.il/story.php3?id=65918

Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA
Independent Media Review & Analysis
imra@netvision.net.il
Website: http://www.imra.org.il

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