IMRA
Weekly Commentary
01 September '11
Let’s keep this simple:
We have absolutely no idea who will be ruling Egypt in the near future.
That’s “near future”.
So policy recommendations vis-à-vis Egyptian force deployments in the Sinai in excess of the treaty that hinge their reasoning on the composition, intentions, or anything else of the currently ruling military regime are grossly short sighted.
Short sighted and irresponsible.
If anything, any policy recommendation on this matter must answer the following critical question:
What impact will there be on Israel’s security if Israel accepts Egyptian force deployment “X” in the Sinai in excess of the treaty and the regime ruling Egypt decides to support a military campaign against the Jewish State – either by actively participating in an invasion or by engaging in various maneuvers within Egypt that force Israel to divert military resources from other fronts facing an invasion.
That’s not to say that Israel must rule out any and all changes in the agreement.
Just that it must do it with eyes wide open, fully aware of the potential ramifications of the move.
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Posts
This is all very true, and we are living through a tragic example of what Dr. Lerner is describing, the present Turkish manufactured and wholly phony crisis with Israel. Regimes in the Islamic world do change occasionally and usually in Israel's favor. The simply truth is that the Egyptians can simply tear up the Camp David Accords any time they feel like it. Egypt can send their entire military into the Sinai whenever they want just like the present Turkish government is doing everything it can and seems determined to destroy the once amicable diplomatic, economic, and military relationship with Israel and replace it with a hostile, and possibly aggressive relationship. Unfortunately there is little or nothing Israel can do to stop this process with Turkey, and likewise if Egypt should so decide to abrogate the Camp David treaty.
ReplyDeleteIsrael should of course do everything in it's diplomatic power to positively influence political and diplomatic events in Egypt, but at the end of the day, Egyptians and Egypt will decide how they relate to us.
Shabbat Shalom!