Sisi's war on terror in Sinai, a daily reminder of why Israel shouldn’t leave the West Bank

...Thus Sisi’s war on both the Sinai jihadists and Hamas is a constant and none-too-subtle reminder that far from being stabilizing, an Israeli pullout from the West Bank would be deeply destabilizing. Yet after years of declaring such a pullout to be a top foreign policy priority, Western leaders don’t want to face this unpleasant truth. So instead, they’ve taken the easier route: simply shunning the man whose policies keep bringing it to mind.

Evelyn Gordon..
Analysis from Israel..
10 February '15..

Why Sisi is the West’s least favorite Arab autocrat

On January 31, Egypt became the first Arab country to declare Hamas’s armed wing a terrorist organization. In so doing, Egypt aligned itself with America and the European Union, both of which have long deemed Hamas a terrorist group (the EU is currently appealing a December court ruling overturning its designation). Cairo is also fully engaged in the West’s battle against the Islamic State, though it’s focusing on the group’s Sinai-based affiliate, Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis. All this begs an obvious question: Why does Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi seem to be the West’s least favorite Arab leader?

Granted, he’s an autocrat who brutally suppresses dissent, but so is every other Arab leader – and the West seems prepared to overlook their repression as long as it deems them sufficiently opposed to Islamist terror. Thus Western leaders flocked to Saudi King Abdullah’s funeral last month, though Saudi Arabia is one of the world’s most repressive countries, where women are forbidden to drive and bloggers can be sentenced to 1,000 lashes. And Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas is feted in every Western capital, though he’s now in the eleventh year of his four-year term and his security forces routinely arrest and intimidate journalists.

Sisi, in contrast, has long received a cold shoulder. Congress froze American aid to Egypt after he took power in2013, finally lifting this ban only two months ago; thus he’s had to rely on the Gulf States and Russia for desperately needed military and financial aid. He has yet to visit Washington, though he did meet President Barack Obama at the UN in New York in September; in contrast, the State Department recently hosted officials from the Muslim Brotherhood, Sisi’s bitterest opponent. And his European trip in November didn’t include the key European capitals of Berlin and London.

So here’s my theory: The West dislikes Sisi’s war on terror because, unlike that of other Arab countries, it threatens the logic of one of the West’s most cherished policy goals – an Israeli withdrawal from the West Bank.

Hamas has abetted Sinai jihadists since long before Sisi took power; after a deadly attack in August 2012, for instance, Cairo accused three Hamas members of involvement and demanded their extradition from Gaza. But Sisi escalated the battle against Gaza-based terror dramatically. Last March, an Egyptian court banned Hamas activities in Egypt; in October, Egypt began razing hundreds of houses along the Gaza border to create a buffer zone to stem cross-border traffic in weapons and terrorists; and now, it has declared Hamas a terrorist organization.

Yet while Western countries also ostensibly oppose Hamas, Sisi’s war poses two problems for them. First, it refutes their fond fantasy that Palestinian terrorists are merely anti-Israel, and would abandon terror if Israel just “ended the occupation.” A group that’s been exporting mayhem to a neighboring Arab country for years won’t stop just because Israel cedes more territory.

More importantly, however, it refutes the very idea that further Israeli withdrawals would promote Mideast stability – because in fact, Israel’s 2005 pullout from Gaza was the direct cause of Sinai’s radicalization.

Hamas Aims at West Bank While Terrorists Are Gunning for Egypt

...Understanding this triangle of "Egypt - Gaza - Israel" is key to unlocking the significance of current regional events. The more that Gaza-linked terror groups threaten Egypt, the more the Egyptian government will seek to isolate and punish Hamas. A distressed Hamas, struggling to initiate reconstruction efforts, is more likely to try to break its isolation through a terrorist provocation against Israel, even if this attempt takes an indirect form, through a proxy terror group. Hamas's dark influence continues to cast a shadow on the region, raising tensions from Sinai to the West Bank, and starting a new countdown to the next showdown.

Egyptian soldiers and armored vehicles operate
to demolish all homes and other buildings in a
500-meter wide corridor, creating a "security zone"
along Egypt's border with the Gaza Strip, October 2014.
(Image source: PressTV video screenshot)

Yaakov Lapin..
Gatestone Institute..
05 November '14..

Under Hamas's rule, terrorist groups in Gaza are currently trying to acquire a foothold in Egypt's Sinai Peninsula, and Hamas is trying daily to resurface in West Bank.

Recent events in Sinai have placed Hamas on a collision course with Egypt, and threaten further instability in the region.

Egypt finds itself threatened by Al-Qaeda-inspired jihadi organizations that use Gaza -- under Hamas rule, a nest of weapons and terrorism -- as a base of operations.

These jihadi groups often attack the Egyptian state in the Sinai Peninsula, then, with their weapons, move back into Gaza through underground tunnels to escape Egyptian security forces.

Hence, Egypt continues to block underground smuggling passages linking Gaza and Sinai as quickly as it can find them.

On October 24, terrorists launched a major attack in Sinai in coordinated assaults. They targeted Egyptian security personnel in the Al-Arish area of north Sinai, near Gaza. The attack represented a blow to Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi and his quest to stabilize Egypt.

The car bomb, and subsequent gun attack, killed 33 Egyptian soldiers and resulted in a staggering number of casualties.

Egypt declared a state of emergency in north Sinai, closed its Rafah border crossing with Gaza, and proceeded to evacuate and destroy all homes and farm areas on the Egyptian side of the border, to create a 500-meter wide security zone.

In the aftermath of the terror attacks, President Sisi blamed "foreign powers." Egyptian media reports cited security officials who claimed that the terrorists were trained in Gaza, and that Palestinian elements were involved.

These acts, in turn, had a direct effect on affairs between Hamas and Israel.

No Rachel Corries complaining when Egypt bulldozes homes to block terrorist tunnels

Isn't it amazing that when Israel defends itself from Hamas terror and smuggling of weapons, it is violating the human rights of 1.6 million Gazans - but when Egypt does the exact same thing, it is simply defending itself?

Elder of Ziyon..
02 September '13..






From Ma'an:

Egypt plans to impose a 500-meter buffer zone along its border with the Gaza Strip, a senior Egyptian military official said Sunday.

Egyptian residents living in Saladin, al-Barahmeh, Canada, Brazil, al-Sarsouriya and other neighborhoods close to the Gaza border have received eviction notices.

Homeowners who received eviction orders demonstrated against the decision and burned tires in protest.

Army bulldozers have also uprooted trees in the border area.

The army has demolished 13 homes in the al-Sarsouriya neighborhood where tunnel entrances were found.

An Egyptian military official told Ma'an that most cross-border tunnels with entrances in fields or open areas had been destroyed in a security campaign to stop smuggling. He said it was more difficult to locate tunnels that opened into houses.

This was the same kind of clearing operation that Israel was doing on its side of the Gaza border - and which was permitted by Oslo - when Rachel Corrie was killed.

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The Curse of Sinai by Dr. Mordechai Kedar

Dr. Mordechai Kedar..
Middle East and Terrorism..
16 August '13..

The Sinai Peninsula is a huge area, approximately 61,000 square kilometers, which is almost three times the area of the State of Israel, and its population is approximately 550,000, less than one tenth of the population of Israel. The residents of Sinai, despite being Egyptian citizens for the most part, are not of Egyptian origin: their Arabic dialect is Saudi Arabian, their culture is different from Egyptian culture and they identify with the state of Egypt about as much as the Bedouins in the Negev identify with the state of Israel. Why is this so? The reason is that the Bedouin will never identify with a state, since the state symbolizes order and the rule of law, whereas the desert is spontaneous and the law that rules within it is the law of the tribes. Only when the Bedouin is part of the governmental system and enjoys its benefits does he identify with the state, for example in Jordan, and even there it is not always guaranteed.

The Sinai Peninsula was never an integral part of Egypt; it was annexed only in the beginning of the twentieth century, when Britain - which ruled Egypt at the time - wanted to keep some distance between the Ottoman Empire and the Suez Canal. The Egyptian state never tried to impose Egyptian law and order upon Sinai and this is easy to prove: There are few roads in Sinai and between those roads are great expanses that are inaccessible to the branches of government: police, health services, educational services and infrastructure. Even the Egyptian army viewed Sinai only as a training area and an arena for battle with Israel, and in general, it can be said that Sinai has always been an unwanted burden to Egypt, a step-son who was not expected to amount to much.

After Israel conquered Sinai in the Six Day War (in June of 1967) the Sinai Bedouins came to an agreement with the IDF: if Israel would allow the Bedouins to have autonomy and live life as they pleased, they would not object to Israeli rule over the area. Israel ignored the poppy plantations that were cultivated in Sinai, which supplied a significant part of world opium consumption, and the Bedouins ignored the Israeli tourists on the Red Sea beaches who did not behave according to the acceptable rules of Bedouin modesty. The many tourist villages that were in Taba, in in Nawiba, in di-Zahab and in Ofira (Sharm e-Sheikh) at that time, provided a good livelihood to the Bedouins. The proximity of IDF bases also brought economic benefit to the Bedouins . The good relations between the Bedouins and Israel was based on the fact that Israel had no intentions of trying to turn the Bedouins into Israelis culturally, and that Israel let them live their lives according to the principles and laws that they have lived by from time immemorial.

Sometimes it is not imperative to tell everyone of your exploits.

The outcome was unequivocal: four dead terrorists and one foiled attack, according to foreign reports. No need to push the button that activates the early-warning rocket siren.

Zvika Fogel..
Israel Hayom..
11 August '13..

It's complicated. Whoever made the decision over the weekend to launch the reported attack on a jihadi rocket squad in the Sinai needed to take the following into consideration: Israel's peace agreement with Egypt, which prohibits Israel from taking military action inside Egyptian territory; the pressure exerted by the Muslim Brotherhood, the forefather of Hamas, and its involvement in the yet-unfinished anti-military revolution currently underway in Egypt; and terror elements like al-Qaida and Islamic Jihad that are trying to pull the entire region into all-out war.

For the last four and a half years, ever since Israel launched Operation Cast Lead in Gaza (in December 2008), the territory of the Sinai Peninsula has been used to launch terror attacks against Israel, to avoid compromising Hamas' government and military infrastructure in Gaza. The various terror organizations rely on the Egyptian army's desire to avoid confrontations with them, and on the knowledge that Israel is barred from taking any military action in the territory, which is under Egyptian sovereignty, protected under the Camp David peace agreement.

The terrorists built training camps there, and filled weapons depots with arms and ammunition smuggled from countries surrounding Egypt. They rely heavily on the smuggling and intelligence networks set up over the years by Bedouin tribes, which are currently without any sources of income now that the 270-kilometer (170-mile) fence has been erected along the Sinai-Israel border. Those tribes have now opted to help the terror groups and to sell their know-how and expertise for profit. To them, drug-smuggling profits are no different than profits made from smuggling rockets and explosives.

Ever since Operation Cast Lead, and especially since the security fence along the Sinai border has been completed, the Israel Defense Forces and the Egyptian army, with the encouragement of their respective governments, have been wise enough to set up a coordination mechanism to jointly combat the terror that threatens both countries. If the details of this weekend's incident, as reported in the foreign media, are true, the time for action was the moment that the rocket fuse was lit.

Israel, Egypt and a terrorist target in the northern Sinai

Jonathan S. Tobin..
Commentary Magazine..
09 August '13..

Today’s report of an Israeli drone strike on a terrorist target in the northern Sinai is more than just another incident in the Jewish state’s long war of attrition against Islamists. The incident reportedly took out a missile launcher on the Egyptian side of the border with Gaza in the city of Rafah and resulted in five terrorists killed. But the most important aspect of the story is the fact that according to the Associated Press, sources in the Egyptian government confirmed that the Israeli pre-emptive attack took place with the cooperation of authorities in Cairo. This comes on the heels of another reported incident during which Israeli authorities briefly closed the airport in Eilat as a result of a tip from the Egyptians that a terror cell in the Sinai was planning to launch long-range missiles that could have hit the city.

While this may seem remarkable to friends of Israel who have been made aware of the depth of anti-Semitic sentiment that seems to pervade all of Egyptian society, it shouldn’t surprise anyone who was aware of the cooperation that went on when Hosni Mubarak was in power. As cold as the peace between the two countries was, for decades Cairo was more interested in combating potential Islamist insurgents than in having another go at Israel. After Mubarak fell and especially once the Muslim Brotherhood took power in Egypt, that changed and the Sinai became an open range for all manner of Islamists. But as a result of the coup that toppled the Brotherhood’s Mohamed Morsi, the military is determined to clean up the Sinai and to end any terrorist threats to the peace between Israel and Egypt. As the United States ponders what to do and say about the impending conflict between the military and the Brotherhood, an understanding of what is happening in the Sinai since the coup should influence American decision-making.

Denial is still the name of the game - Anarchy in Sinai and no solution in sight

Zvi Mazel..
Middle East/JPost..
3 April '13..

The first Egyptian reactions to the grad rockets that targeted Eilat were of flat denial. No fewer than three individuals – a self-proclaimed expert, a retired general and a military commentator – explained at length that there was no way the missiles had been launched from Sinai.

One said that determining what had happened would take time and would require satellite images; another argued that the Iron Dome system, recently deployed to the Eilat area, is designed to intercept only projectiles launched from beyond Israel’s borders — the rockets must have been launched from Israeli territory, he duly concluded. South Sinai’s governor joined the chorus, rejecting out of hand the notion that the rockets could have been shot from the peninsula.

It may be remembered that in December 2010, this governor’s predecessor accused the Mossad of dispatching a shark to the waters of Sharm e-Sheikh in order to harm local tourism. A “high ranking army source wishing to remain anonymous” added that the ongoing investigation had found no indication that the missiles had originated in Egypt.

A few hours later, perspectives Egyptian views were shifting, perhaps because a Salafi group had taken responsibility for the launch.

An Egyptian Army spokesman posted a statement on its Facebook page indicating that a commission of inquiry had been immediately set up to check the situation on the ground in Sinai.

In the statement, the spokesman wrote that Egyptian territory had never been and would never be a threat to neighboring countries.

The presidency followed suit with a similar communiqué, while another military source indicated that the Egyptian Defense Minister General Abdel Fattah Alsisi had given orders to raise the state of alert along the Israeli border to its maximum level.

No one seemed aware that Iron Dome radars and other installations had tracked the missiles, and that the likely explanation for the decision not to fire at them was that such an interception would have taken place in Egyptian airspace.

At this stage, Israel is unwilling to violate its neighbor’s sovereignty. In Egypt, as in all Arab countries, denial is the name of the game whenever Israel is involved. They are never the ones at fault, it seems; it is always the Zionists or the Jews.

Eilat - Almost always sunny, occasionally attacked liked this morning

Frimet/Arnold Roth..
This Ongoing War..
17 April '13..

The terrorists who are building up men and material resources in the chaos of today's Egyptian Sinai struck again this morning. Two GRAD rockets were fired into - and struck - the southern Israeli resort city of Eilat.

Memo to those lacking historical, geographic or political background: Eilat is not and never has been claimed by Palestinian Arab terror apologists as 'occupied territory'... other than by the many extremists who see all of Israel as the territory that is occupied. The readers of the Lebanese Al Manar news website for instance, are seeing a report at this moment headlined "Rockets Hit Occupied Town of Eilat"; Al Manar is a mouthpiece of Hezbollah. The semi-respectable Palestinian Maan News Agency has called Eilat occupied too, though never in the English language.

Times of Israel is reporting that one of the two missiles crashed into a residential neighborhood; the other in an open area on Eilat's outskirts. Reuters says both hit open areas. Ynet says there were three rockets, and two landed in residential areas. Israel's Army Radio, which is broadcast throughout the country, is quoted saying that a rocket

had also hit the nearby Jordanian city of Aqaba, but a spokesman for the Jordanian Civil Defence denied the suggestion.

Fortunately, and this is a matter of divine intervention and human failure, no injuries are reported, at least not so far. Damage is said to be light.

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The Sinai - Lessons for the West Bank

Evelyn Gordon..
JINSA Fellow..
20 September '12..

After radical Islamists killed 16 soldiers at an Egyptian army outpost in Sinai this August, Egypt's military pointed an accusing finger straight at Hamas-run Gaza, whence it said some of the terrorists came. Suiting action to words, Cairo swiftly shut the Egypt-Gaza border crossing, massed troops near Gaza, destroyed some of the cross-border smuggling tunnels and demanded that Hamas extradite three suspects.

This response highlighted a fact that had previously attracted little notice: While Israel has long complained of arms and terrorists entering Gaza from Sinai, the traffic actually goes in both directions. In fact, as a recent study showed, Gaza has played a major role in radicalizing Sinai.

But that fact has an uncomfortable corollary: To some extent, Sinai's radicalization was an unintended consequence of Israel's 2005 disengagement from Gaza. For it was Israel's pullback that opened the gates through which arms, extremists and radical ideology then poured. And this raises serious questions about the potential consequences for Jordan should Israel accede to international pressure to quit the Jordan Valley.

In a study published by the Washington Institute in January, veteran Israeli journalist Ehud Yaari traced the spread of radical Islam among Sinai Bedouin since the 1980s. Initially, this spread was slow, he wrote, but it exploded after the disengagement:

As Bedouin political activist Ashraf al-Anani put it, "a fireball started rolling into the peninsula." Illegal trade and arms smuggling volumes rose to new records, and ever-larger sectors of the northern Sinai population became linked to Gaza and fell under the political and ideological influence of Hamas and its ilk ... In short, despite then prime minister Ariel Sharon's quiet hope that Cairo would assume unofficial responsibility for Gaza affairs, the Israeli withdrawal instead allowed Hamas to export its influence into Egyptian territory.

The Sinai - Ongoing riddles

Frimet/Arnold Roth..
This Ongoing War..
08 September '12..

The Sinai desert is not what it used to be and probably never will be again. As it has gone from bad to catastrophic, including uncontrolled attacks on the Egypt to Israel gas pipeline which highlighted the Egyptian impotence in the area, we have posted here about the changes several times.

For instance, in a blog post called "17-Jul-12: Sinai used to be seen as a paradise" we noted that

Egyptian officials routinely blame Israel for "trying to spread panic with rumors and irresponsible statements" and making efforts "to impede the area's booming tourism industry" [source] But sober observers know it's far from being an Israelis-only concern.

Then came the huge August 5, 2012 attack on Egyptian security officers in Rafah. They were partaking of the post-Ramadan evening breakfast meal when unknown gunmen killed 16 soldiers and police, and Egyptian public opinion became enraged. The New York Times called it "the deadliest assault on Egyptian soldiers in recent memory" and added that, perhaps surprisingly, "there were no immediate claims of responsibility". The new Moslem Brotherhood-led government of Mohamed Morsi came under tremendous pressure to act, and they did in the traditional way: almost immediately, both Hamas and the Moslem Brotherhood publicly [source] blamed Israel for the killings.

So what's happened since then? We raised some questions last month about what is actually going on in Egypt's Sinai. See "10-Aug-12: Egypt is pouring forces into Sinai but does anyone know for sure what they are actually doing there?" and "28-Aug-12: About that major Egyptian armed offensive against Sinai terrorists: has it been called off?" It's clear that questions still need to be asked. Much of what is known tends to be confused and contradictory.

From Israel - Focused and Current

Arlene Kushner..
23 August '12..





The focus is on the situation in the Sinai:

Amos Gilad, head of the Political Diplomatic Bureau at the Ministry of Defense, said yesterday that Israel is in constant contact with the Egyptians and that we are being heard.

"When the Egyptians introduce weapons that are not included in the agreement we check it and we talk to the Egyptians about it. We have direct communication with the Egyptians and we have made it clear that we demand a complete adherence to the terms of the peace agreement.

"It is important to safeguard the Military Appendix of the peace agreement; it is the cornerstone of the peace agreement and regional stability. We look at the total regional picture: we have a changing Middle East, Iran going nuclear, and it is an important time to maintain the peace agreement. We will not agree to a violation of the Military Appendix of the peace agreement. Israel is keeping things in proportion, and we are standing fast by our interests. (Emphasis added)

"We are in constant contact with the Egyptians. They are fighting against an al-Qaida-like group of terrorists whose aim is to carry out strategic attacks that would force a confrontation between Israel and Egypt."

http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_article.php?id=5508

~~~~~~~~~~

Dore Gold, President of the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, has provided a description, cited by the NY Times, of the political/diplomatic ramifications of the situation:

"To the extent that the Egyptian government challenges the clauses of the treaty of peace with Israel, it undermines the regional peace process as a whole - it's a big deal. If you don't state clearly what your concerns are as the Egyptians increase their forces in Sinai, you could end up with a fait accompli that undermines your most vital security interest." (Emphasis added)

Well... it does appear that we are doing that. Not letting any grass grow under our feet. Not turning a blind eye. But challenging the Egyptians when they test the limits of what we will permit.

~~~~~~~~~~

With all this said, it's not quite clear to me what "we are being heard" -- the claim of Gilad -- means. Has Egypt removed tanks that Israel said were not approved? I've not seen pictures. Nor have I accessed any reports indicating such.

(Which is not to say that our protest is unimportant -- even if not heeded. Not at all. It establishes our position and sets the stage for whatever might follow next.)

From Israel - Those Tanks

Arlene Kushner..
22 August '12..





But before I speak about tanks, I want to share good news, as I had promised:

Many of you on this list have been following the situation of the nine-year old Noam Jay ben Inbar, who was found to have cancer growing in his heart and on his lung and was thought to be terminal. About two months ago, an MRI that was done showed that since the last scan there had been no further growth of the large mass, which had been aggressively enlarging. And so it was decided to start him on an experimental drug. I understand that the form of cancer this boy has is so rare that a case is seen perhaps once in 20 years.

I learned yesterday that Noam has been permitted to come home, with the understanding that regular checks will be necessary. His most recent MRI showed a modest decrease in the size of the tumor. He's got a very long way to go, but this is the first sign of a reversal of a condition that the doctors not so long ago had thought was hopeless.

And so, Baruch Hashem, may he continue to improve. And please, continue to pray for him.

As to those tanks: PM Netanyahu is walking a tightrope. And the situation here is as filled with complexities and nuances as anything I've written about in my last few posts.

The tanks are being brought into the Sinai by Egypt. It is not clear whether they are the first to be brought in, or, as one report indicated, they are heavier, US-made tanks that were not included in the recent understanding between Egypt and Israel.

~~~~~~~~~~

Credit: rfi

There seems a disagreement as to whether this deployment is a violation of the 1979 Israeli-Egyptian peace treaty. That tanks are forbidden in a demilitarized Sinai is clear. But Israel is granting permission for troops and equipment to be brought in beyond the limits of the treaty, and considers it acceptable under the circumstances.

What is significant for Israel is that the Egyptians ask, and that our government have a say in what is deployed. The Israeli government says there was no approval for these tanks.

The Egyptians are saying that this is in coordination with Israel, as approval was given, without a time limit, for equipment to be brought in to "purge the area of armed criminals," as one officer put it. The Egyptians are bristling at the notion that everything has to be cleared with Israel: permission was given to do the job and that should be enough.

For the Egyptians there are sensitive issues of national sovereignty -- they deeply resent not being permitted to do as they choose in the Sinai.

Full Egyptian Rearming of the Sinai - with US Help

Shoshana Bryen..
Gatestone Institute..
20 August '12..

Egypt has moved forces into the Sinai beyond what was agreed to in the Egypt-Israel Peace Treaty. Getting them in wasn't that difficult – Israel agrees that security in the Sinai has deteriorated. Getting them out again later may be another matter. And how the U.S. positions itself to safeguard the treaty itself will be crucial.

One of the lesser-known American military deployments is as part of the Multinational Force & Observers in the Sinai (MFO), inserted in 1981. Its mission is to "supervise the implementation of the security provisions of the Egyptian-Israeli Treaty of Peace and employ best efforts to prevent violations of its terms." The MFO consists of 1,656 soldiers from 12 nations[1] and, according to its website, operates checkpoints, reconnaissance patrols and observation posts; verifies the continued implementation of various arms limitations in the Sinai; ensures freedom of navigation through the Strait of Tiran; and monitors the deployment of border guards along the Egyptian side of the Gaza/Egypt border to ensure that it meets the terms agreed to by Israel and Egypt in 2005.

The MFO, clearly, is not a fighting force; it is a peacekeeping force with an agreed-upon peace to keep.

So how odd it is that Defense Secretary Leon Panetta has announced that the U.S. "is providing additional military assistance to peacekeeping forces in Egypt's Sinai Peninsula to strengthen security in the region."

King Mursi the First, Egypt and The Peace Agreement With Israel

Dr. Mordechai Kedar..
Middle East and Terrorism..
17 August '12..




Translated from Hebrew by Sally Zahav..

Nine months ago, in November of 2011, the Muslim Brotherhood won almost half of the seats of the Egyptian "Peoples' Council", thus translating the long-standing support of the population into a political asset of undeniable strength. This success encouraged them to contend for the presidency as well, and in June their representative - Mohammad Mursi - won this exalted office. The Supreme Military Council, the military body that had been managing affairs in Egypt since Mubarak was sent packing in February 2011, ground its teeth with rage, and the head of the Council - Field Marshall Hussein Tantawi - who was suspected of intending to remain in control until the end of his days, announced again and again that he does not intend to turn into Mubarak number 2. Despite this, there was an open rivalry between the military and the Brotherhood: on one side is an unelected body, which is powerful, violent, hated, secular, self-interested, armed, hierarchical, obedient and disciplined; and on the other hand there was an elected body, supported by the public, not violent, religious, ideological, connected to the population and perceived as the embodiment of the dream of many years.

During the past months, especially since Mursi was elected in June, Egypt seemed like a rickety cart, pulled by two horses, but each in its own direction. Each horse tries to step on the other's hoofs, trying to negate the strength of the other, despite the fact that both of them know that they are destined to pull the cart together. The Supreme Constitutional Court dispersed the parliament, thus pulling an important rug out from under the feet of the Brotherhood. The Supreme Military Council issued an order to freeze the powers of the president, but then Mursi cut off the head of the military snake, Tantawi, Commander in chief Anan, Head of General Intelligence Muaffi, and a long line of officers, "tails" of the old regime, who had been appointed by Mubarak, with one decision that appeared as if it was exploiting the attack on the Kerem Shalom Crossing two weeks ago.

As of the writing of these lines, not a word of public outcry has been heard by all of the symbols of Mubarak's regime that Mursi sent packing, and the impression that is created is that they have accepted the decision and quietly left their offices . It could be that they indeed have accepted this "boot upwards": Some of them have joined the "presidential team" as very close advisers to Mursi so that he would be able to keep an eye on their doings, and some accepted high positions in public service.

But behind the scenes a difficult struggle was being played out: In the middle of last week, President Mursi held a discussion of the Council of National Defense in his office, which dealt with the implications of the terror attack at the Kerem Shalom Crossing and with the security situation in Sinai. Mursi, Tantawi, Anan and other senior officers were all participants in this discussion, during which,Tantawi claimed that Egyptian intelligence had information on the involvement of Palestinian elements in the attack, and that Israel had paid them. Therefore - in his view - Egypt must hermetically close the Rafah Crossing, because of the threat to Egyptian national security that it poses. Mursi became enraged and said: I do not believe that a Palestinian would do this, and if you had prior information about it why did you not act appropriately? I will not permit the closing of the crossing because I don't suspect that Hamas took part in the action." Tantawi rejected the words of the president and emphasized that the Supreme Military Council had decided to close the Rafah Passage completely, and perhaps it would be opened in the distant future. "We, the military people, are in charge of that." With these words, Mursi answered sharply: "I am the high commander of the Egyptian military." The meeting dispersed after deciding to deal with the centers of terrorism in Sinai with full determination and without any sensitivity, without the "Supreme Court" or the prying eyes of human rights organizations, as is commonly done in the Arab world. Last Saturday, the president met with Tantawi and Anan, and did not reveal to them that he was about to fire them within a few hours.

Formation of Global Jihadi Networks in Sinai: The Role of Hamas

Lt. Col. (ret.) Jonathan D. Halevi..
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs..
Vol. 12, No. 18..
15 August '12..

After the Rafah attack, it was noticeable that the Egyptian government refrained from condemning the terrorists’ plan to carry out a mass-casualty attack in Israel. Indeed, senior Muslim Brotherhood figures pointed an accusing finger at Israel, claiming it was behind the attack in an attempt to create a rift between Egypt and Hamas.

Apart from the anti-Israel propaganda line, the investigation of the attack by Egyptian intelligence found tracks leading in the direction of Gaza. Security sources in Egypt told the Egyptian newspaper Al-Youm al-Saba that the Palestinian organization Army of Islam was responsible for the attack. They said that the day before it occurred, there was a meeting in one of the homes of the Army of Islam’s leader in Rafah; about 35 activists participated, and it was decided to carry out the attack.

Egypt’s policy is similar to that of Hamas toward the Salafi terror organizations within its territory: the regime views the organizations as legitimate and does not intend to proscribe them so long as they do not undermine the central government or harm its basic interests. Similar to Hamas, Egypt seeks to “tame” the Salafi organizations, put an end to their subversion, neutralize their potential damage to Egypt’s internal stability, and subject them to the new rules of the game, which will allow them limited freedom for jihad activity without infringing on Egyptian interests or entangling Egypt in direct responsibility for terror.

Egypt’s supreme interest is to alter the terms of the Camp David agreement and enable full Egyptian sovereignty over all of Sinai, including in the military domain. In the government’s view, terror activity from the Egyptian border that does not stamp Egypt as directly responsible, helps exert pressure in Sinai, compelling Israel to agree to a permanent military deployment in the territory and making the demand for a change in the agreement an Israeli interest without Egypt paying any political price for it.

Ramadan as a month of triumph. But who is the triumphant one?

"Anyone who takes the deployment of Egyptian tanks and helicopters in Sinai too lightly, regarding it as merely necessary at this point in time, may soon get slapped in the face by reality. If you think that Egypt's deployment in Sinai is intended merely to take care of Israel's Sinai terror problem, you may have to think again."

Dr. Liad Porat..
Israel Hayom..
15 August '12..

Dr. Mohammed Badie, the supreme guide of the Muslim Brotherhood, describes the month of Ramadan in his weekly missive as a month of triumph. This begs the question, however, of who is the triumphant one, and who is the defeated one, as of today?

During the Free Officer's Revolution in Egypt in July of 1952, talks were held between the officers' leadership and the Muslim Brotherhood. Gamal Abdel Nasser Hussein, then president of Egypt, dedicated days and hours to meetings with the heads of the Brotherhood in efforts to understand their true nature and intentions. Once he was convinced that their ideological direction was contrary to his world view and posed a threat to him, Nasser sought an opportunity to strike them down.

In October of 1954, he found a way. Nasser gave a speech in Alexandria before signing an agreement that saw the withdrawal of British Armed Forces from Egypt. The speech was broadcast over transistor radios to all of Egypt, and in the background, eight shots were heard. The shots all missed the charismatic president. He immediately regained his composure, realizing that he had found the opportunity he had been waiting for. The following day, the Brotherhood was accused of having tried to assassinate the head of state; droves of Brotherhood members were arrested and thrown in jail. Thus, in one fell swoop, Nasser's regime paralyzed the Muslim Brotherhood's active and organized resistance.

The Free Officer's movement, led by the confident Nasser, ruled in Egypt for many years. It was Nasser's successor, Anwar Sadat, who later opened the prison doors and let the Brotherhood resume public activity. Sadat held a meeting at the start of his term with the imprisoned leader of the Brotherhood, and got the impression that the movement could help him establish his legitimacy. What actually happened, however, was that the creature turned on its creator: the Brotherhood, which Sadat expected to support him and to help him combat the Left and the Nasser-ites, were the ones who ultimately stripped him of his legitimacy. They did so in such a way as to encourage Sadat's eventual assassins.

Kushner - From Israel: The Levy Conclusions

Arlene Kushner..
13 August '12..




Whatever else is going on in this unsettled and fairly insane world of ours, it's important for us to not lose sight of the need to stand up for Israel's rights. In fact, given the state of the world, it's more important than ever that we do so, and recent events right here in Israel provide us with a clear basis for declaring those rights.

What I'm referring to are the legal conclusions of the Levy Committee:

In January, Prime Minister Netanyahu appointed a committee to consider the status of "questionable settlements" (see more on this below) in Judea and Samaria. Headed by retired Supreme Court Justice Judge Edmund Levy, it included Alan Baker, former Israeli Ambassador to Canada and former legal advisor to the Israeli Foreign Ministry, and Judge Tchia Shapira, former Deputy President of the Tel Aviv District Court.

The Committee released its report on July 8. Most significantly, it concluded that from the perspective of international law, Israel has the legal right to settle in Judea and Samaria, and, further that the laws of ‘occupation’ do not apply to the unique historic and legal circumstances surrounding Israel’s decades-long presence in Judea and Samaria.

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To date, PM Netanyahu, who is not automatically bound by these conclusions, has not moved to accept them as government policy. He referred the 90 page Levy Report to his Ministerial Committee on Settlements, which has made no statement on the conclusions.

For this reason, in particular, it is imperative that the conclusions of this report be clearly understood and kept in the public eye.

I am not referring to any policy recommendations by the Committee. Focus here is on the legal conclusions -- which provide a foundation for asserting Israel's rights.

Years of trying to erode the Sinai force restrictions. And now?

A warning from someone who called Morsy right from day one

Dr. Aaron Lerner..
IMRA..
12 August '12..




No. I am not writing this to brag.

Today, as Egyptian President Morsy got rid of the entire leadership of the Egyptian military I could most certainly be proud to note that I am one of the very few who consistently warned from day one that Morsy the chess player would move faster than all the predictions. And one of the few that didn’t embrace the narrative that Morsy was stuck honoring for the foreseeable future a delicate balance with the leaders of the Egyptian military.

But I am not writing this note to brag.

I am writing it to warn.

For years the Egyptians have been trying to erode the Sinai force restrictions set in the peace treaty they signed with Israel. Force restrictions that were a necessary condition for Israel agreeing to restore the Sinai to Egyptian control.

The Egyptians see the force restrictions as impinging on their sovereignty.

We always considered the force restrictions as critical for the Jewish State’s national security and, frankly speaking, with the Moslem Brotherhood leading Egypt, we need the force restrictions more than ever.

This evening we find ourselves with massive Egyptian forces deployed literally on our border.

Leaders of Egypt's military junta sacked - The IDF's Egyptian fiasco

Caroline Glick..
carolineglick.com..
12 August '12..

So Muslim Brotherhood President of Egypt Mohamed Morsy just sacked the leaders of the military junta General Hussein Tantawi and the Egyptian Army's' Chief of Staff General Sami Enan.

Morsy has also cancelled the constitutional protections that the Egyptian military has enjoyed and overturned their edicts circumscribing his control over foreign and military policy.

That is, as the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt has declared, today Morsy completed the Egyptian revolution. Egypt is now an Islamic state. Its leaders drink from the same well as al Qaida, Hamas and all the rest. Egypt, with its US armed military has reemerged after 30 years as the greatest military threat that Israel has ever faced.

According the the Israel media, the IDF was surprised by Morsy's move. Clearly our esteemed generals believed reassurances they received from their Egyptian military counterparts that Israel had no reason to be concerned with the election of Hamas's big brother to Egypt's presidency.

This reminds me of what former chief of the IDF's General Staff Gabi Ashkenazi said at the Jerusalem Post's conference in New York on April 29. In his remarks Ashkenazi said that no one in the IDF foresaw Mubarak's overthrow during the anti-regime protests in Tahrir Square. I began my remarks by mentioning that I had foreseen his overthrow and replacement by the Muslim Brotherhood already back in 2004. And like me, everyone paying attention to the internal make-up of Egyptian society -- rather than to the empty promises of generals with no popular support -- recognized that Israel's peace with Egypt was not long for this world.

Responding to Iran's nuclear development NOW has not become an imperative? Unreal!

Arlene Kushner..
12 August '12..





"Unreal!"

I am alluding to the efforts of the US government to pretend that responding to Iran's nuclear development NOW has not become an imperative. Officials are twisting themselves into pretzels to avoid the obvious (because it would require military action before the election). It would be funny if it were not so very critical and pathetic.

As of Thursday, Reuters was reporting that:

"The United States still believes that Iran is not on the verge of having a nuclear weapon and that Tehran has not made a decision to pursue one, U.S. officials said on Thursday...

"'We believe that there is time and space to continue to pursue a diplomatic path, backed by growing international pressure on the Iranian government,' [a White House National Security Council] spokesman said. 'We continue to assess that Iran is not on the verge of achieving a nuclear weapon.'"

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However...

"According to a Friday report by Yediot Ahronot, top US officials, who are privy to the relevant intelligence shared by Israel and the United States, said that Tehran is rapidly approaching the 'immunity zone' – the critical point in time after which the Islamic Republic's nuclear program will no longer be vulnerable to a military strike. (Emphasis added)

"The National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) report, recently submitted to the White House, paints a bleak picture, as it indicates 'a significant progress' in Iran's 'arms group' – the people and facilities focused on the manufacturing of a nuclear warhead.
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4266931,00.html

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Today's Israel Hayom is even more specific with regard to what the Iranians are doing:

"...a purported new U.S. National Intelligence Estimate report, presented to U.S. President Barack Obama last week...states that Iran has made 'substantial and surprising' progress and boosted its efforts to attach a nuclear warhead to ballistic missiles." (Emphasis added)

"Efforts to attach a nuclear warhead to ballistic missiles..."