A message to Abbas: haggling with a democracy different than with dictatorship

Dr. Aaron Lerner
IMRA
Weekly Commentary
29 July '10

(While the points here may be valid from our perspective on what would be in Abbas's best interests, it's pretty clear to me that he doesn't have the same end-game in mind. If that's a given, then what are we pushing him for, other than to sign an agreement that no one other than ourselves will expect him to honor.Y.)

These are the indisputable facts:

#1. In the waning days of PM Ehud Olmert's administration, Olmert offered Mahmoud Abbas an Israeli package of concessions far beyond what any Israeli leader proposed in the history of the Jewish State.

#2. If Abbas had accepted the outline of PM Olmert's generous offer, it could have been brought up for approval by Olmert's cabinet to formally tie the Jewish state to the deal. Additional activities, both in the region and beyond, could have further locked Israel into PM Olmert's concessions.

#3. But Mahmoud Abbas decided to hold out for even more concessions. And he did this knowing that elections were going to take place in Israel with a very real possibility that a Likud lead coalition would replace Kadima.

#4. As a result of the Israeli elections, a Likud lead coalition did indeed come to power. A coalition that utterly rejects the concessions offered by PM Olmert.

As a negotiating tactic, Mahmoud Abbas walked away from the Israeli "stall" in the market, in the expectation that the Israeli would ultimately call him back offering even greater concessions.

Now this tactic may make sense when negotiating with a stable dictatorship.

But Israel isn't a stable dictatorship.

It is a democracy.

And we changed, via the ballot box, the man in the Israeli "stall".

And the new man in the "stall" has absolutely no obligation to honor the generous offers that his predecessor made since a deal was never concluded.

In a word, Mahmoud Abbas blew it.

And that's his problem. Not ours.

Here's the puzzle: if Abbas is so confident that his final status demands enjoy broad international support, and in turn, that the world will consider Israel's final status offer unacceptably stingy, he has only to gain by doing everything and anything necessary to expedite entering into final status talks and getting the Israeli "cards" on the table.

But instead he is burning time dickering over pre-conditions for direct talks.

There are some reports that Mahmoud Abbas thinks he can manipulate the situation to ultimately bring about a regime change in Israel.

A word of advice for Mr. Abbas: Your manipulations may indeed lead to a regime change in Israel. But the odds are that should your manipulations precipitate a regime change that the change would be a shift to the right rather than a return of Kadima to the helm.

You blew it when you walked away from Ehud Olmert's "stall".

Don't repeat the mistake with Netanyahu.

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