IMRA Weekly Commentary..
25 March '15..
Here’s the optimistic scenario: If Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu holds firm, President Obama will ultimately reach the conclusion that all the left wing Israelis and American Jews are wrong in their assessment that Netanyahu will capitulate to pressure. With an eye on his place in the history books, Mr. Obama will then focus on orchestrating a series of photo ops featuring him as the man who restored relations with Cuba. Don’t be surprised to see photo spreads of a presidential family vacation at a Cuban beach resort. No doubt there will also be a cute photo of his wife glaring at him as he lights up a Cuban cigar.
More likely scenario: President Obama keeps turning the screws to the very end of his term. Prime Minister Netanyahu doesn’t buckle to American pressure and make the best of the situation with his coalition of 67 MKs.
Worst case scenario: Buckling to pressure, Israel finds itself locked into a framework, followed by a timeline that includes step-wise Israeli withdrawals subject to Palestinian compliance.
A reminder: in the early years of Oslo, Congress made U.S. funding for the PA contingent on full Palestinian compliance. Miracle of miracles. Every official U.S. assessment concluded that the Palestinians were in complete compliance.
Expect the same automatic pass if we start moving down a timeline to the creation of a sovereign Palestinian state.
Binyamin Netanyahu can most certainly stand up to this and the other challenges.
There’s a clarity to the situation in terms of the Palestinians and Iran that makes it considerably easier for Prime Minister Netanyahu to lead with determination.
Add to that: Netanyahu finds himself in the unprecedented situation of being point man for the ARAB WORLD and concerned Europeans in the struggle against American capitulation to Iran!
Yes. It won’t be a picnic. But now, more than ever, there’s a feeling of a nation ready and able to respond to the call “acharei” (after me).
IMRA, Independent Media Review and Analysis, was founded in 1992, by Drs. Aaron and Joseph Lerner, as an ongoing analysis of developments in Arab-Israeli relations. Awarded credentials by the Government of Israel as a news organization, IMRA provides an extensive digest of media, polls and significant interviews and events. Follow us at at http://www.imra.org.il/