Will Gen. Allen's security plan project undermine Israel's position?

Dr. Aaron Lerner..
IMRA Weekly Commentary..
07 August '13..

There is a very good possibility that US Gen. John Allen, working together with top Israeli security people, will succeed in preparing a security plan, vetted by the Israeli security technicians, that can seriously undermine Israel’s negotiating position.

A reminder: Back in 2000 Israel's Senior Negotiator With Syria, Major General (Res.) Uri Saguy , who had served in the past as head of Military Intelligence, took the position that “peace will not eliminate the strategic threats to Israel, but will prevent their materialization”. Saguy believed that since Assad’s goal was to recover the Golan that once he had that Syria would not attack Israel. That belief served as the basis for his support for grossly unworkable security arrangements in the North as part of a plan to leave the Golan.

Saguy is in very good company. Most of the top people in Israel’s various security and defense systems share a similar ideologically driven optimism regarding the efficacy of “land for piece of paper”.

Time and again over the last two decades the embarrassingly naïve analysis of Israel’s security people led them to advocate reckless plans and arrangements – with many of those actually implemented literally blowing up in our faces.

Back to the present.

IDF Says Massive Hezbollah Rocket Threat May Obviate Highly Anticipated Iron Dome Defense System

Jacob Levkowicz
JINSA
24 July '10

On Monday, Israel’s highly anticipated Iron Dome anti-rocket system passed its final operations test, following months of speculation and political haggling in both Jerusalem and Washington. While Monday’s test may have helped eliminate concerns about system’s ability to respond to short-range rocket threats, Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) leadership has indicated that ground operations would be still be necessary in the face of a large barrage of rockets and analysts continue to claim that Iron Dome’s high cost may well prevent it from ever entering serial production.

Rocket Threat Places Israel’s Civilian Population on the “Front Lines”

The rocket threat from Gaza and Lebanon poses several challenges to IDF planners who traditionally have placed the civilian population within the conceptual innermost “security shell,” far removed from the front lines of combat. The findings of a recent round table discussion featuring high-ranking Israeli defense officials and representatives from JINSA, the Near East South Asia (NESA) Center of the Pentagon’s National Defense University, and the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), however, shatter this illusion. Discussion centered on the implications of civilian population centers becoming the new front lines of combat.

(Read full report)

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