No 'in and out' solution - by Maj. Gen. (ret.) Yaakov Amidror

Both the Gaza and Iran events show us that life is much more complicated than it is portrayed in simplistic headlines.

Maj. Gen. (ret.) Yaakov Amidror..
Israel Hayom..
29 June '18..
Link: http://www.israelhayom.com/opinions/no-in-and-out-solution/

Iran is seeing anti-government protests because of the grim economic situation there, which wasn't good even before the U.S. withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal and has been getting worse ever since then. Still, the demonstrations are far from being a real threat to the regime, which has seen darker days and much bigger protests than these. Headlines about the events tend to exaggerate as hope is filtered into analysis.

Meanwhile, on our own border, incendiary kites from Gaza continue to burn up our fields as the farmers watch, helpless. The IDF still has no good way of combatting the ongoing airborne terrorism. Some argue that this means Israel is losing its sovereignty and power of deterrence.

The truth is that while the kite and balloon attacks are unpleasant, it might be better to assess Israel's sovereignty by the Friday on which no Gazan was allowed to breach the border but some 60 Palestinians were killed trying to do so, and over 2,000 were wounded in the clashes? It might also be better to judge our sovereignty by the lack of any response from Hamas to the events of that Friday, which marked the end of its aspiration to march a million Palestinians into Israel.

Remember, Israel has dealt with much bigger threats than the kites. If we evaluate these fires calmly and rationally, we will understand that they are only a minor achievement for Hamas and no real threat to the country. They don't cause loss of life (although there are no guarantees) and even the economic damage is small.

It's tough to see – it's unpleasant that the other side is hitting us with such primitive weapons but we must also understand that it's all our enemies have left. Burning a few thousand acres of fields is almost nothing compared to what they had expected to do through these demonstrations.

The Next Five Years - Israel's Strategic Challenges

Yossi Kuperwasser..
inFocus Quarterly..
Spring 2013..

Israel will face a complicated and challenging strategic landscape in the years to come. This, of course, could have been said at any point since 1948. Ever since the Zionist idea took the shape of a political movement, there have been several times at which the situation was even more dire than it is today. Yet the combination of recent developments in the region, in the broader international arena, and within Israel and the Jewish people, suggests that another demanding period lies ahead. And these challenges will make it more difficult for Israel to secure the nation state of the Jewish people and build peaceful relations with its neighbors.

The Threat from Iran

The most demanding challenge is the progress of Iran's military nuclear project, aimed at equipping the fanatical messianic regime in Tehran with an arsenal of atomic bombs that is intended to enable it to be a regional hegemon and a world power, and to threaten Israel's security attempting, ultimately, to wipe it off the map. At this stage, the Iranians have accumulated uranium enriched at a level that is 40-50 percent of the full enrichment process needed for military grade uranium, enough for the production of at least six bombs. It should be noted that most experts, including the IAEA, refer to this level as 3.5-5 percent enrichment. They refer to the amount of the enriched component in the material produced instead of emphasizing the degree of progress toward military grade enriched uranium that it represents. The Iranians are also carefully and consistently enriching uranium to the point that is 70-75 percent of the work needed to enrich uranium to military grade, commonly referred to as 20 percent enriched uranium and they have accumulated about two-thirds of the amount needed for the first bomb after further enrichment.

They have installed thousands of centrifuges in well-protected facilities, declaring and following through on their intention to install more efficient ones. Once they start operating them, the time they will have to spend closing the enrichment gap to military grade will be much shorter than it is today. It is not totally clear to the international community how much progress they have made on preparation for turning the enriched uranium into a weapon, but their insistence on denying IAEA access to the facility at Parchin is one of many indicators that makes everyone suspect they have a lot to hide.

Economic sanctions are finally increasing the pain and difficulty of Iran's progress toward an atomic arsenal, but Ayatollah Khamenei is determined to continue the march. From his perspective, giving up at this late stage of the project wouldn't make sense. He believes the regime's stability has been ensured by the ruthless and effective suppression of the Iranian population by his security forces. He is following the international community, and in his view, it will not have the guts and will definitely not have a consensus to take the necessary steps to stop Iran. Based on the timid approach of the West and its regional allies thus far, he believes Western society is weak and hollow. If the Ayatollahs manage to buy more time and establish Iran as a military nuclear arsenal threshold state, Iran may start to change the regional order in the Persian Gulf area. It is already working intensively to embarrass the U.S. in the region and the global arena, and then may swiftly move toward producing the weapons, thus promoting its goals and at the same time starting a regional arms race.

The Rise of Non-State Actors

Regional upheaval and instability, the rising influence of radical groups, and the development of "less than governed" areas along Israel's borders and elsewhere in the region all mean that the coming years will be characterized by more uncertainty, and more animosity and hostility toward Israel. A more complicated capability will be required to deter some of the hostile elements as the nation state system established after World War II becomes less relevant, and effective accountable addresses become harder to find. The rise to power of Islamic parties seems to be a lasting phenomenon that will make the chance of promoting new peace agreements between Israel and its neighbors minimal at best.

Amrousi - Of rockets and rain

Emily Amrousi..
Israel Hayom..
16 March '12..

A pungent cloud surrounds the homeless man, who has not showered in months. By a water fountain in the public park, he takes out a toothbrush and begins to brush his crumbling teeth. His clothes are tattered, filthy and disgusting, but he removes lint from the shoulder of his coat with great concentration. As he drinks the contents of a crushed soda can he found, he sticks out his little finger like an English lord.

Shooting down rockets in mid-flight is no different from brushing teeth that are severely decayed. It is no different from a foul-smelling beggar dabbing himself with perfume. Our rejoicing over the success of Iron Dome is indicative of a final and strategic decision not to win. We swat at mosquitoes from the Gaza swamp without noticing the rising stench from our own bodies. How about drying out the swamp? In your dreams.

This week, a young man from Gaza, injured while preparing a rocket launcher, was evacuated to an Israeli hospital. What ever happened to chasing down, destroying and eradicating the terrorists? Who has the energy? Besides, it would only lead to “another round” of violence. Such thoughts are based on the assumption that it will never end, that we will never beat them. They are the product of our highly efficient self-defense measures.

Egozi - We Must Not Be Dragged into a War of Attrition in Gaza

Arie Egozi..
israeldefense.com..
13 March '12..

In the past few days, there seems to be the impression that all the activity against the terror organizations in Gaza was created to provide a “photo-op” for the Prime Minister, the Minister of Defense, and other officials to come to one of the Iron Dome batteries, stand by it, and discuss the way the IDF is “responding with all its might."

It looks great against the background of the green fields, but also very weird. With all its might? Israel has been dragged into a war of attrition, yet again. Retired generals are once more talking about how "we need to let the terror organizations fire the last bullet" on every TV show they are invited to, discussing the "current round.” It would be funny were it not sad.

Israel, which has a tremendous air force, is playing a game of cat and mouse with a few terror organizations in Gaza. This is not serious. Instead of bringing down a blow to the heads of the organizations and hurting infrastructure so that the population act against the lunatics governing the Gaza Strip, the air force "aircraft" are hitting weapon production sites, training facilities, and launch squads.

For biased critics of Israel, even its defensive actions violate human rights

Legitimate debate is one thing. But reflexive bias against Israel means even basic security efforts to defend innocent civilians are criticized as violations of human rights.


Jeffrey Robbins
www.csmonitor.com
29 July '10
Posted before Shabbat

Boston

In 1947, when excusing Soviet totalitarianism had become quite the rage in fashionable progressive circles, George Orwell eviscerated a British politician who consistently defended totalitarians but nevertheless denied that he was a defender of totalitarianism. “But of course he does,” Orwell wrote. “What else could he say? A pickpocket does not go to the races with a label ‘pickpocket’ on his coat lapel, and a propagandist does not describe himself as a propagandist.”

Orwell’s point holds true for today’s debate over the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. His pickpocket metaphor seems particularly applicable to those critics of Israel who can always be counted upon to decide that Israel has behaved miserably in defending herself, regardless of the suffering of Israeli civilians that their government is seeking to prevent and regardless of the actions of those who have caused that suffering.

These are individuals who nonetheless stoutly deny that they are in any way biased against Israel.

In fact, these critics view the very pointing out of what looks very much like anti-Israel bias as an affront.

Those who point out the critics’ seeming inability to ever locate a justification for Israeli actions, let alone a legitimate Israeli interest in self-defense, are dismissed as part of the “pro-Israel lobby,” who simply cannot tolerate anyone who has “the temerity to criticize Israel.” And as for the suggestion that they harbor any bias against Israel, very much like Orwell’s defenders of totalitarianism, they deny it, adamantly.

To be sure, there ought to be ample room for legitimate debate about Israeli policies. But there does appear to be a determination in certain quarters to hew to an anti-Israeli line on every issue, without exception.

(Read full article)

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