The Birth of a Bomb: A History of Iran's Nuclear Ambitions

Erich Follath and Holger Stark
Spiegel Online
17 June '10
IMRA

In the dispute over Tehran's nuclear program, the UN Security Council has imposed new sanctions. Is Iran truly building a nuclear bomb as Western countries claim? Or are countries playing up the dangers to bring Iran to its knees? SPIEGEL traces the history of Tehran's nuclear program -- with stops in Washington, Vienna and Isfahan.

It is yet another of those secret meetings at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The deputy director general of the agency, who works on behalf of the United Nations to prevent nuclear bombs from getting into the wrong hands, has invited 35 diplomats to a meeting on the fifth floor of the UN building in Vienna. Some take pictures with their mobile phones of the ice floes on the Danube River drifting by below. Everyone is prepared for a routine meeting. But everything will be different this time. With the help of high-tech espionage, history is written on this February day in 2008. And perhaps it will later be said that it was the day Iran finally lost its innocence, and the day the Israelis were provided with arguments for a war.

Olli Heinonen confronts the diplomats with new information about Tehran's nuclear program. The Finnish nuclear scientist, the IAEA's deputy director general and head of the Department of Safeguards, has been to Natanz and Isfahan several times himself, and his inspectors, or "watchdogs," report back to him regularly. In addition, cameras monitor nuclear activities in many of the Iranian facilities. As useful as all of this is, it doesn't replace supplementary, secret information.

Heinonen knows that there are many things happening in Iran that he doesn't know about. Nevertheless, he has received critical information through indirect sources, including recordings made by a leading Iranian nuclear scientist.

(Read full story)

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It's Nuke Fest Time!

Graphic: Steve Hughes

Soccer Dad
09 April '10

I haven't done an Iran round-up for a while, but not much has changed. They are into events in the IRI:

National Nuclear Festival has just started at Tehran's Milad Tower on Friday.

Key state and military personalities, including President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad are present at the ceremony.

Among the guests are Head of the Atomic Energy rganization of Iran (AEOI) Ali-Akbar Salehi, members of the cabinet, the Guardian Council and the Parliament as well as a number of foreign diplomats and ambassadors.

The festival began with playing of national anthem and recitation of verses from holy Quran.

The president is said to give a good nuclear news in the ceremony. [...]

They are making progress on the nuke front, as that festival suggests. According to an AP story, "Iran unveiled a third generation of domestically built centrifuges . . . capable of much faster enrichment than those now being used . . ." According to a Tehran Times headline, "Iran has produced several kilos of 20% enriched nuclear fuel":

Iran has produced several kilos of uranium enriched to a purity of 20 percent to power its medical research reactor, the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) director announced on Wednesday.
However, Ali Akbar Salehi declined to state how many kilos have been produced.

Speaking to reporters, he said good news on how the country will produce fuel for the research reactor will be announced in the next few months. [...]

And what would an Iran round-up be without a touch of totalitarian boasting and bluster? A Press TV headline declares that Iran is the "world's most powerful country":

(Read full post)
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The Obama Administration and Sanctions on Iran: The Farce Deepens

Barry Rubin
The Rubin Report
07 April '10

For more than a year I have repeatedly pointed out that the Obama Administration's strategy of increasing the level of sanctions against Iran has been a mess. Deadlines set by the U.S. government for September and then December weren't met. Even afterward, the government had not even established publicly (and it seems not even privately) its basic position on what sanctions should be. Congressional proposals for a tougher stance were discouraged and ignored.

Over and over again we were assured, apparently without basis, that Russia and China were going to support increased sanctions. With the Obama Administration in office now for 14 months, Moscow and Beijing seem no closer to supporting such a policy than they were when the process began.

Now there is more news. It is April and there are no immediate prospect for sanctions. Indeed, the issue is not even on the agenda for the UN Security Council this month. In May, the rotating presidency goes to Lebanon, a country in which Hizballah, an Iranian client, has a veto power over every decision. The Lebanese government has already declared that it will be supportive of Tehran.

June, anyone?

I will repeat: It now seems to be a race between Iran getting nuclear weapons and inadequate increased sanctions being implemented, too little and too late.

This massive failure should be crystal clear. Whether or not strong sanctions would have had a chance to slow or undermine the Iranian drive for nuclear weapons can legitimately be debated. But we're not going to get a chance to find out.

(Read full article)
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Israel And A Nuclear Iran

Eamonn McDonagh
Z-Word Blog
17 February '10

Ariel Ilan Roth maintains that Israel’s objection to Iran acquiring nuclear weapons is not based on a fear that those weapons would be used against it as he believes that the certainty of a devastating Israeli response is likely to deter the ayatollahs.

He also discounts the idea that Iran might provide its client Hezbollah with a nuclear weapon and sets out the core of the first part of his argument concerning Israel’s attitude to Iran’s nuclear ambitions like this:

Israel fears that Iran’s nuclear ambitions could undermine its qualitative superiority of arms and its consistent ability to inflict disproportionate casualties on adversaries — the cornerstones of Israel’s defense strategy. […] most Israelis believe the key to enduring peace in the Middle East is convincing Israel’s adversaries that ejecting Israel through force is an impossible task not worth pursuing. […]The Iranian nuclear program threatens Israel’s ability to do this in two ways. First, an Iranian nuclear capability would likely force Israel to restrain itself due to fears that Iran’s nuclear weapons could provide an implied security guarantee to other anti-Zionist forces — the sort of guarantee that would prevent Israel from causing the massive losses it has in the past, while giving anti-Israel forces the confidence to keep up the fight.

(Read full article)
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