The Arab Spring - The Israeli Spring

...In terms of realpolitik, anti-Israeli authoritarians are fighting to the death against anti-Israeli insurgents and terrorists. Each is doing more damage to the other than Israel ever could — and in an unprecedented, grotesque fashion.

Victor Davis Hanson..
NationalReview.com..
30 August '13..

Israel could be forgiven for having a siege mentality — given that at any moment, old frontline enemies Syria and Egypt might spill their violence over common borders.

The Arab Spring has thrown Israel’s once-predictable adversaries into the chaotic state of a Sudan or Somalia. The old understandings between Jerusalem and the Assad and Mubarak kleptocracies seem in limbo.

Yet these tragic Arab revolutions swirling around Israel are paradoxically aiding it, both strategically and politically — well beyond just the erosion of conventional Arab military strength.

In terms of realpolitik, anti-Israeli authoritarians are fighting to the death against anti-Israeli insurgents and terrorists. Each is doing more damage to the other than Israel ever could — and in an unprecedented, grotesque fashion. Who now is gassing Arab innocents? Shooting Arab civilians in the streets? Rounding up and executing Arab civilians? Blowing up Arab houses? Answer: either Arab dictators or radical Islamists.

The old nexus of radical Islamic terror of the last three decades is unraveling. With a wink and a nod, Arab dictatorships routinely subsidized Islamic terrorists to divert popular anger away from their own failures to the West or Israel. In the deal, terrorists got money and sanctuary. The Arab Street blamed others for their own government-inflicted miseries. And thieving authoritarians posed as Islam’s popular champions.

But now, terrorists have turned on their dictator sponsors. And even the most ardent Middle East conspiracy theorists are having troubling blaming the United States and Israel.

Secretary of State John Kerry is still beating last century’s dead horse of a “comprehensive Middle East peace.” But does Kerry’s calcified diplomacy really assume that a peace agreement involving Israel would stop the ethnic cleansing of Egypt’s Coptic Christians? Does Israel have anything to do with Assad’s alleged gassing of his own people?

Has Israel’s Strategic Environment Inextricably Changed?

Dore Gold..
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs..
No. 596 July-August 2013..

There is a view that developments since the advent of the Arab Spring have completely altered the way Israel should look at its national security needs for many decades to come. The old strategic assumptions that guided Israeli thinking, according to this thesis, are not going to become relevant again. In order to evaluate this idea, it is necessary to keep in mind that there are certain constants in Israel’s security predicament that are not going to be altered even with the developments the Middle East is witnessing.

For Israel remains a small state surrounded by states that have a combined population of 300 million, in territories that are hundreds of times the size of Israel. As a result, Israel’s military assets may be seen as geographically concentrated in a limited area, while neighboring Arab states have been able to disperse launch sites, weapons depots, and military bases across a vast expanse of territory.

While some neighboring armies have been badly degraded by internal conflicts, it would be a cardinal error to base national planning on a temporary snapshot of reality. For example, Iraq is planning to modernize its ground forces and convert its army from a counterinsurgency force to a force with maneuver warfare capabilities based on new armored and mechanized formations. There are estimates that it will have over 2,000 main battle tanks by the middle of the next decade.

The Gaza Strip has been flooded with Iranian and Libyan weapons. In the West Bank, where Israel holds on to the outer perimeter of the territory in the Jordan Valley, the same weaponry has not reached terrorist organizations. Global jihadists have been unable to reach the West Bank in order to reinforce their Islamist compatriots, as they did in Syria, Iraq, and Libya. Thus, territorial considerations remain applicable to the new threats.

The present wave of anti-regime rebellions is loosening central government control over large parts of several Arab states. This has created a vacuum that is being filled by regional terrorist organizations like al-Qaeda and its affiliates. This process has become accentuated in Egypt, especially in the Sinai Peninsula. Countering terrorist organizations by simply deterring the governments of the countries in which they are situated is likely to prove an inadequate strategy.

The pressures Israel faces at this time to agree to a full withdrawal from the West Bank and to acquiesce to the loss of defensible borders pose unacceptable risks for the Jewish state. They also stand in contradiction to the international commitments given to Israel in the past.

Can Israel Entrust Its Security to People Who Got Egypt So Wrong?

...In other words, the administration has already made clear that it won’t support Israel’s security demands; it expects Israel to bow to its judgment. But the people who thought Egypt’s revolution was going to resemble Chile or South Korea aren’t people whose judgment Israel can possibly rely on to assure its vital security needs. Under this situation, reaching a deal that satisfies Israel’s minimum security needs would be impossible even if all the other issues were somehow magically resolved.

Evelyn Gordon..
Commentary Magazine..
15 August '13..

To the many reasons why the current Israeli-Palestinian “peace talks” are a nonstarter, we can now add another: the situation in Egypt. The problem isn’t just that the chaos on Israel’s previously stable southern border decreases its willingness to take “risks for peace” that could replicate this situation in the West Bank. It’s also what the situation says about the Obama administration’s judgment.

As the Hudson Institute’s Samuel Tadros reminds us, when the Egyptian revolution broke out two years ago, the administration sought guidance in historical precedents:

According to the New York Times, President Obama asked his staff to study transitions in more than 50 countries around the world in order to understand and predict where Egypt and other countries in the Middle East might be heading. After extensive study, his staffers predicted “that Egypt is analogous to South Korea, the Philippines and Chile.” Months later, the administration was still confident in its assessment. While aware of the obstacles that were on the way during the desired transition to democracy, Benjamin Rhodes, a deputy national security advisor was adamant that, “The trajectory of change is in the right direction.”

Needless to say, Egypt turned out nothing like South Korea, the Philippines, or Chile. The Muslim Brotherhood took power, only to prove both so incompetent and so anti-democratic that a year later, the military ousted it by popular demand (anti-Brotherhood demonstrations drew an incredible 14 million people into the streets). The Brotherhood didn’t go quietly, and now there’s a risk that this week’s carnage in Cairo will spark a civil war.

None of this was unpredictable. Indeed, from the very beginning, Israeli officials warned unanimously that nothing good would come of Egypt’s revolution, and most Israeli commentators (myself included) agreed–for which we were roundly condemned by members of America’s foreign-policy establishment. Nor is it really surprising that Israel’s assessments proved more accurate than America’s: What happens in Israel’s immediate neighborhood has far more impact on Israelis’ lives than it does on Americans, and therefore Israelis invest more time and effort in trying to understand it.

Demanding equal rights -- and equal duties

“The patriarch told Father Nadaf that he is not an opponent of the state of Israel,” he said. “On the contrary, he is very appreciative of the security enjoyed by Christians in Israel. He did ask Nadaf to tone down his statements concerning his work with the forum so as to ensure the safety of Christians in the Palestinian Authority and the Arab states.”

Evelyn Gordon..
Commentary..
28 June '13..

Today’s (Friday) Israel Hayom has an important article about an Israeli Greek Orthodox priest that every Christian in the West should read. Father Gabriel Nadaf and his family are suffering harassment and even death threats from their fellow Arabs for arguing that Israeli Arab Christians should serve in the Israel Defense Forces. On Tuesday, he was even summoned to a disciplinary hearing by the local Greek Orthodox patriarch, Theophilus III, which ended with Theophilus keeping Nadaf in office but asking him to lower his profile. The account of the hearing given by one of Nadaf’s close associates, Shady Halul, is revealing:

“The patriarch told Father Nadaf that he is not an opponent of the state of Israel,” he said. “On the contrary, he is very appreciative of the security enjoyed by Christians in Israel. He did ask Nadaf to tone down his statements concerning his work with the forum so as to ensure the safety of Christians in the Palestinian Authority and the Arab states.”

It has become a truism among some Christian groups that Israel is primarily to blame for the suffering of Middle East Christians. In 2010, for instance, a synod of Catholic bishops from the Middle East blamed the Christian exodus from the region on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Thus it’s worth listening to what these Israeli Christians have to say: that Israel is actually the one place in the region where Arab Christians enjoy security; elsewhere, they are oppressed by their fellow Arab Muslims.

Even more noteworthy, however, is that since the Arab Spring erupted, the “forum” to which Halul referred in the above quote–the Forum for the Enlistment of the Christian Community, founded by a group of Christian IDF veterans–has seen a marked increase in the number of Christians seeking to enlist, though they still represent a minority of the Arab Christian community. Previously, many Arab Christians bought into pan-Arab ideology, and thus believed their interests lay with their fellow Arabs. But the Arab Spring shattered this ideology: In country after country, Arab Islamists have turned on fellow Arabs who fail to toe their religious line, and this, naturally, includes Christians. By comparison, Israel is a haven.

“We feel secure in the state of Israel,” Nadaf explained, “and we see ourselves as citizens of the state with all the attendant rights as well as obligations.”

The Arab Spring and Escalating Hamas Attacks

Evelyn Gordon..
JINSA Fellow..
15 November '12..

The latest escalation along the Israel-Gaza border - which saw Palestinians fire more than 250 rockets at Israel since Wednesday after Israel, responding to days of only slightly less intensive rocket fire, assassinated a senior Hamas terrorist and destroyed most of Hamas's long-range missiles on Wednesday - may yet be interrupted by another temporary cease-fire, of which there have been many in recent years. But that's unlikely to change the trajectory: Israel and Hamas appear to be heading for another full-scale war, one more devastating than the one they fought in January 2009. In large part, this is thanks to the "Arab Spring," which eroded the deterrent effect of that earlier war by strengthening Hamas' position and weakening Israel's.

Hamas's newfound confidence was evident not only from the rise in the volume and frequency of rocket attacks from Gaza - prior to Wednesday's escalation, Palestinians had fired more than 900 rockets and mortars at Israel this year, up from 680 in 2011 and 158 in 2010 - but even more from the fact that recently, for the first time in years, it began openly claiming responsibility for many of these attacks. After the 2009 war, Hamas generally left rocket launches to smaller terrorist groups that it claimed it couldn't control. This effort at deniability was a transparent ruse; Hamas openly supported most of these groups. Nevertheless, it showed that Hamas wanted to avoid goading Israel into attacking it directly. By brazenly claiming credit for attacks, it showed it no longer feared doing so.

MEF - For Israel, every crowd has a silver lining

Gary C. Gambill..
The Jerusalem Post..
Middle East Forum..
16 October '12..

Addressing the UN General Assembly last month, the Arab world's most popular elected leader railed against what he called the "tragedy of the age," decried the victimization of a people dear to "the hearts" of his countrymen, and condemned an oppressor that "kills … day and night." This strident rhetoric might have passed unnoticed but for one important detail – the speaker was not talking about Israel.

To be sure, Egyptian President Mohammed Morsy made the usual call for "an end to colonization, occupation, and settlement" and urged his audience to support the "full and legitimate rights" of the Palestinians. But it was the oppression of Sunni Arabs by an Alawite-dominated, Iranian-backed dictatorship in Syria that clearly occupied his attention.

He is not alone. While there is no evidence that popular anti-Israeli sentiment in Egypt and other Arab countries has diminished appreciably since the onset of the Arab Spring, the weakening and collapse of authoritarian regimes has revealed that ordinary citizens care about a great many other things, and "justice" for the Palestinians isn't at the top of the list. Since anti-Zionism was typically the only anti-establishment political cause that tyrants routinely allowed their citizens to openly embrace, many did so with gusto, if only to vicariously express their rejection of the status quo.

Today, not so much. Anti-Israeli slogans were relatively scarce in popular protests that erupted across the region early last year. Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas' attempt to petition the United Nations for recognition of Palestinian statehood last fall inspired little mass mobilization in the region and a lukewarm reception from his Arab counterparts, while an unprecedented hunger strike this spring by Palestinian prisoners in Israel was neglected by Arab media outlets in favor of regional crises more conducive to live-action broadcasts. An over-hyped "Global March on Jerusalem" failed to get off the ground.

Bryen - Variations on the Theme of The Arab War Against Israel

Shoshana Bryen..
GatestoneInstitute..
12 June '12..

Amid the Arab upheaval of past 18 months, a question has crept among the speeches, demonstrations, riots, elections, battles and massacres – Is Israel better off, or worse off, for the revolution among its neighbors?

Certainly Wael Ghonim of Google, and the positive nature of the short-lived "Arab Spring" raised people's hopes. The West convinced itself that education and modern social media had created an Arab body politic ready for democratic governance. Very quickly, however, what we got was:

- "Moderate" Islamists -- looking less moderate every day -- ruling Tunisia;
- A split in the Egyptian Parliament between the Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafists (with "Google people" barely noticeable in the constellation);
- A horrific war in Syria where Saudi Arabia and Qatar are arming an increasingly Islamist-looking opposition (which is what you get when they are armed by a Wahabi regime);
- Sectarian fighting in an increasingly fragile Lebanon;
- Turkey looking increasingly stridently Islamist;
- Muslim Brotherhood demonstrations on a regular basis in Jordan;
- Governmental gridlock in Iraq with an increase in violence;
- Factional fighting in Yemen, with an overlay of al Qaeda activity and American drone strikes;
- Factional fighting in Libya and the spread of Gaddafi's arsenal across North Africa;
- A simmering rebellion in Bahrain; and, of course,
- Iran, which is both the same as and different from, the other threats.

The last time Israel was surrounded by this much hostility was June 1967 – with the hostility directed toward Israel.

Marquadt-Bigman - The progressive quest for comparative consolations

Petra Marquadt-Bigman..
The Warped Mirror..
30 January '12..



The folks who expected that the “Arab Spring” would lead to a Tweeples-government in Egypt are understandably disappointed by the landslide victory of the Muslim Brothers and the Salafists.

But progressives were quick to find a formula that offers comparative consolation: the basic recipe is to simply claim that Egypt’s Islamists are really no worse – and maybe even better!!! – than disagreeable political figures or forces in your own country.

Following this recipe, Lisa Goldman, writing for the Israeli left-wing blog +972, claims:

citizens of the democratic state of Israel […] freely elected, as the largest faction in its governing coalition after the Likud, the quasi-fascist Yisrael Beitenu party. […] In our Knesset, we also have Kahanists and a large contingent from Shas, which is quite similar to the [Salafist] Nour party.

Unsurprisingly, Goldman’s comment was promptly quoted by The Arabist, where Issandr El Amrani added that “Israelis might mind their own business about Egypt and other post-uprising countries” because “they won’t be doing much business with them at all for some time to come.” Since the post was entitled “Israel and the new Egypt”, I can’t resist the temptation to take Amrani’s comment as a validation of the point I made when I wrote some two months ago that it would be the “Same old story in the new Middle East” because “when it comes to anti-Western and ‘anti-Zionist’ sentiments, the new rulers of the Middle East will be at least as eager as their predecessors to put them to demagogic use.” And as Amrani’s comment illustrates, even supposed Arab liberals seem happy to hold on to the “anti-Zionism” that provided Arab dictators for decades with a useful tool to distract the masses.

But naturally, Goldman was very pleased to be quoted by The Arabist, and tweeted:

.arabist linked to my +972 piece, ‘Egypt’s election results are none of Israel’s business.’ I can die happy now. http://tinyurl.com/6u58lzs

Glick - The Arab Spring, Israel, and the United States (Audio)

Uploaded by carolineglick..
Jan 26, 2012..

Caroline Glick's lecture from January 21st at the Great Synagogue in Jerusalem, Israel. More than 1000 people turned out to hear Caroline Glick's comments on world affairs.



Last Saturday night I gave a lecture at Jerusalem's Great Synagogue. Unfortunately, it wasn't videotaped but my talented assistant Neta Dror took still photographs and Rabbi George Finklestein taped the program.

Neta worked hard putting the photos together with the recording.

Here it is and a big thanks to both of them.

And no, I'm not obese. Just waiting for the new arrival! (B"H)

Updates throughout the day at http://calevbenyefuneh.blogspot.com. If you enjoy "Love of the Land", please be a subscriber. Just put your email address in the "Subscribe" box on the upper right-hand corner of the page.
. 

Rubin - Hamas Chief: “Islamic Spring”; Brotherhood Chief: Caliphate Soon; Western Media: Islamists Moderate, Israel Bad

Barry Rubin..
PJ Media
Rubin Reports..
06 January '12..

A 27-year-old American-Israeli law school student decides he’s going to go to Egypt and talk to Egyptians. He gets arrested by the authorities there as a spy, then is released in the prisoner exchange. He then brags that the mere charm of his magical persuasion convinced a hardened Muslim Brotherhood cadre not to be anti-Israel any more. So there’s nothing to worry about!

That’s worth a Washington Post op-ed, but the Muslim Brotherhood’s leader calling for an Islamic state and a caliphate isn’t?

At least the New York Times reported the statement of Ismail Haniya (whom it calls “the Hamas prime minister of Gaza”) on his official state visit to Turkey:

The Arab Spring is turning into an Islamic spring.

(Note: Turkey’s government, President Obama’s favorite Middle East regime and his main regional advisor, is part of that radical Islamist bloc.)

Haniya knows it. We know it. Why don’t Western governments, mass media, and “experts” understand what this means? It doesn’t mean a springtime for “Islam” as a “religion of peace,” but a springtime for political Islamism as being in power — imposing a very anti-Western, anti-Christian, anti-American, and radically intolerant interpretation of Islam on their countries.

In his official weekly message published on the official Brotherhood website, Muhammad al-Badi — official leader of what is officially the biggest political party and parliamentary vote-getter in Egypt — said that the Brotherhood will now begin the “long-term plan for the reform of all aspects of people’s lives.”

(Note: Why didn’t Barack and Michelle think of that phrase first?)

Rubin - The “Arab Spring” and Its Impact on Israel

Barry Rubin
Rubin Reports
30 December '11

The “Arab Spring” is the name given to the tumultuous political events of 2011. In three countries—Egypt, Libya, and Tunisia—the regimes that had been in power for between 40 and 60 years were overthrown. In Syria and Yemen the governments were seriously challenged and internal conflicts continue with the outcome not yet clear. And in Bahrain, a major challenge to the monarchy was put down by force.

What is the meaning of these events for the future of these countries and also to their relationship to Israel and that country’s security? This article addresses the shorter- and longer-term strategic and geopolitical implications of the “Arab Spring.”

In the three countries where power has changed hands—Egypt, Libya, and Tunisia—Islamists have emerged as powerful political forces. In Egypt, where elections are not yet completed, the Muslim Brotherhood received just under 40 percent of the vote and even more radical Salafists obtained about 20 percent. This means that Islamists will be the leading political parties in forming the parliament and in writing the country’s constitution.

What other forces exist? Only two: the army and the future president. The armed forces do not want political power but they do want to ensure their economic enterprises and wealth. The military junta, which still governs the country, is also concerned about preventing anarchy and maintaining U.S. aid. While asserting itself periodically to try to avoid extremism, the generals have backed down when challenged by the Brotherhood. Presumably, the junta will disband when a new president is elected, perhaps in the summer of 2013.