Palestinian Authority: Fayyad's Gamble

Mark Silverberg
Hudson New York
Foreign Policy Analyst
Ariel Center for Policy Research
24 December 09

A new “peace initiative” is in the wind. According to the pan-Arab daily newspaper, Asharq Al-Awsat, the initiative, to be unveiled in the coming weeks is designed by the U.S., Egypt and France to compel Israel to implement a full building freeze in Judea, Samaria and eastern Jerusalem, and to obtain an Israeli commitment to recognize a Palestinian state based on the pre-1967 borders, thereby effectively prejudging the outcome of any future negotiations.

This, together with the recent attempt by Sweden to push the EU to recognize east Jerusalem as the capital of the Palestinian Authority (while omitting any recognition of the rest of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel) and to recognize the PA as a “democratic” and independent entity if it unilaterally declares statehood, have added to Israeli concerns over the possibility of a unilateral Palestinian declaration of independence within the June 4, 1967 borders - a move which could be recognized by the U.S. and the United Nations Security Council.

Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Salam Fayyad issued a 54-page plan (“Palestine: Ending the Occupation, Establishing the State”),on August 26, that proposed the establishment of a de-facto Palestinian state within two years – a state to be established regardless of negotiations with Israel and outside the framework of the performance-based March 2003 Roadmap and the Oslo Agreement. While the Plan adopts an anti-Fatah posture by discarding the traditional PLO position of “armed struggle to liberate Palestine” (a position that was reaffirmed at the Sixth Fatah Congress in Bethlehem in August), it is based on the tenuous assumption that the Palestinians can adopt Western-style institutions and standards and thereby re-shape their future over a two-year period.

The problem is, Fayyad has little or no political backing to effect such reforms. Nevertheless, the Israeli newspaper Ha’aretz revealed on November 14th that Fayyad has already reached a secret understanding with the Obama administration which would provide for U.S. recognition of such an independent Palestinian state within two years.