Would Obama's nuclear engagement guideline end Israeli nuke deterrence against bio chemical Arab attacks?

Dr. Aaron Lerner
IMRA
06 April '10

[Dr. Aaron Lerner - IMRA:

"Obama is rolling back the Bush administration's more hawkish policy set out in its 2002 review threatening the use of nuclear weapons to preempt or respond to chemical or biological attack, even from non-nuclear countries.

An exception under Obama's plan would allow an option of reconsidering the use of nuclear retaliation against a biological attack if there is reason to believe the United States were vulnerable to a devastating attack."

So in Obama's playbook Israel cannot deter Arab chemical attacks with nukes?

And in Obama's playbook, Israel can only deter "devastating" Arab biological attacks - but biological attacks that might not be "devastating" could not be deterred by the threat of a nuclear response? Is it "devastating" to take out Ashdod? How about Petach Tikvah?, Is Raanana too small to matter? Or would Mr. Obama insist that we do complete a body count - perhaps under American monitoring - before establishing that an attack was, indeed, "devastating"?

It wasn't so long ago that tactical nuclear weapons were considered an obvious tool for NATO forces to use in the European theatre as the only possibly viable way to hold back a Russian invasion.

In Obama's playbook Israel cannot deter an overwhelming invasion with the threat of a nuclear response?

Finally: does stripping down deterrence encourage stability or lead to devastation.?]

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Obama to limit U.S. use of nuclear arms, but not on Iran
By Reuters Last update - 14:40 06/04/2010
www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1161120.html

The Obama administration will formally unveil a new policy on Tuesday restricting U.S. use of nuclear arms, renouncing development of new atomic weapons and heralding further cuts in America's stockpile.

But even as President Barack Obama limits the conditions under which the United States would resort to a nuclear strike, he is making clear that nuclear-defiant states like Iran and North Korea will remain potential targets.

"I'm going to preserve all the tools that are necessary in order to make sure that the American people are safe and secure," Obama told The New York Times in an interview that previewed his revamped nuclear strategy.

Obama insisted "outliers like Iran and North Korea" that have violated or renounced the treaty would not be protected.

The policy shift, calling for reduced U.S. reliance on its nuclear deterrent, could build momentum before Obama signs a landmark arms control treaty with Russia in Prague on Thursday and hosts a nuclear security summit in Washington next week.

But it is also likely to draw fire from conservative critics who say his approach is naive and compromises U.S. national security.

(Read full article)
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