Israel and maneuvering in a grey world

Dr. Aaron Lerner..
IMRA Weekly Commentary..
18 September '13..




It is hard to keep the scorecard straight.

On the one hand, we are witness to what appears to be an unprecedented Egyptian operation against smuggling activity between Egyptian Sinai and the Gaza Strip as well as terror groups inside Sinai. On the other hand we face an ever more complicated challenge to find a way to ensure that the situation doesn't ultimately result in an effective end to the crucial Israel-Egypt peace treaty Sinai force limits.

On the one hand, Israel has made significant progress in efforts to improve practical Israeli-Palestinian relations, with huge increases in the numbers of Palestinians able to work inside Israel, renewal of cooperation in various agricultural programs as well as an ongoing series of renewed inter-ministerial meetings. On the other hand Mahmoud Abbas and the Palestinian leadership and media in general continue with their inciting anti-Israel propaganda and hardline positions – while the remarks of some key Israeli players (Livni and others) provides worrisome evidence that ideology and politics can take precedence over reality .


Today the gulf states share Israel's concerns over a nuclear Iran but what appears to be a potentially poisonous combination of ideological orientation and domestic economics and politics seems to drive the Obama Administration to seek any and every way to a path that avoids a showdown with Teheran.

And what of Syria? If – and it is a big if – the Assad regime provides chemical weapons figures that are similar to the estimates the US and Russia share (assuming Mr. Kerry didn't agree to slash the figures) this may set a meaningful benchmark for the operation (are biological weapons in the arrangement?). Compliance, unfortunately, is hardly a foregone conclusion with a very real possibility that Russia "compensates" Syria for foregoing its chemical weapons (at least in theory) with S-300 systems shielding both Syria and Hezbullah.

Link: http://www.imra.org.il/story.php3?id=61918

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