Lerner - Facing the Egyptian Challenge

Dr. Aaron Lerner
IMRA
Weekly Commentary
23 June '11

Back in the summer of 1998 I heard Shimon Peres make his standard "New Middle East" presentation at a conference. He argued that if Israel does whatever it takes - gives whatever it has to give - in order to get all its neighbors to sign pieces of paper, that the ensuing economic prosperity would drive out the threat of Islamic fundamentalism from the region.

I spoke with Peres as he was making his way out of the hall.

“Mr. Peres,” I asked, “I understand your hypothesis which relates peace to economic prosperity which, in turn, keeps the fundamentalists at bay. But what happens if, after Israel gives up strategic positions which it would certainly need if it faced fundamentalist neighbors, through no fault of Israel - there is some external economic shock and there is a recession in the region? By your theory, the recession could very well bring the fundamentalists to power.

Peres replied with a smile: "I don't give answers to questions which I don't have answers for."

And now it may very well be happening.

What, indeed, is the contingency if the Moslem Brotherhood and its allies take over Egypt?

Its hardly a far fetched scenario. They are in fact considering running on a joint ticket with a number of other parties in order to take power.

And that's only the beginning of the problems.

It is hardly a foregone conclusion that the billions of dollars of aid being promised today to Egypt will succeed in preventing an economic catastrophe.

And there we will be, with a neighbor armed to the teeth with American weapons with a radical Moslem leadership desperately trying to find a way to divert the rage of a hungry raging mob.

There are no simple answers to this challenge.

But there are some guiding principles:

1. The Egyptian force limitations in the Sinai must be strictly adhered to regardless of the security challenges they face.

2. Israel must bring up its force levels to reflect the significant possibility that Egypt could become an active enemy.

3. Israeli policy relating to Egypt's role in the Gaza Strip must also take this into account.

It is certainly a very serious challenge.

But we cannot afford the luxury of adopting the approach that Shimon Peres apparently embraced over a decade ago.

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