U.S. Security Guarantees - “Israel' sole discretion” provision is crucial

Dr. Aaron Lerner
IMRA
Weekly Commentary
11 November '10

"The chances of achieving a peace agreement will be significantly advanced by achieving comprehensive security understandings between Israel and the US."
Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu – Press Release – Prime Minister’s Office,
10 November, 2010

"Israel, with her survival at stake, cannot afford to take chances.... The nature of the Israeli's situation is bound to influence their interpretation of ambiguous events. We, on the other hand, have an incentive to minimize such evidence, since the consequences of finding violations are so unpleasant. Violations force us to choose between doing something about them and thus risk the blowup of our initiative; or doing nothing and thus renege on our promises to Israel, posing the threat of her taking military action. Accordingly, we tend to lean over backwards to avoid the conclusion that the Arabs are violating the cease-fire unless the evidence is unambiguous."
Henry Kissinger to President Richard Nixon, 1970
[Henry Kissinger “White House Years", page 587]

What are the necessary conditions for a comprehensive security understandings between Israel and the US to effectively offset the degradation of security associated with various changes associated with implementation of an agreement with the Palestinians?

#1. It has to be a formal treaty. President Obama gave us an important reminder, when he opted to ignore the Bush letter, that Presidential letters in no way obligate the United States of America.

This may be workable.

#2. The United States must recognize the right of Israel to implement security related measures and operations relating to the Palestinians at Israel’s sole discretion, backed by the commitment of the United States to protect Israel from international sanctions and/or UN Security Council condemnation for such activities. By the same token, The United States commits that it will never restrict or delay the supply of conventional weapons and ancillary security related equipment to Israel.

This is where the problems start:

The “Israel’s sole discretion” provision is crucial. Otherwise, we could find ourselves in a rapidly deteriorating situation with America either dragging its feet or deciding that its own interests would be best served if Israel didn’t act.

Frankly speaking, it is highly doubtful that the United States would agree to the “Israel’s sole discretion” provision.

What, then, is the ramification?

In the absence of an “Israel’s sole discretion” provision, there is always a risk that when Israel finds itself relying on America honoring the agreement that the powers that be in Washington decide that their national interests are best served if Israel declines to defend itself.

And thus, a “comprehensive security understandings between Israel and the US” could not in in fact effectively offset the degradation of security associated with the creation of a sovereign Palestinian state.

Back to the drawing board.

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