Two Key Indicators on Israel-Palestinian Developments

Barry Rubin
The Rubin Report
09 November '10

Here are two developments that are important indicators about the Israel-Palestinian situation.

First, the current Palestinian Authority (PA) strategy is to stall and avoid negotiations because making a deal with Israel requires giving concessions to get to a compromise peace. The leadership wants to make no concessions, both because they themselves don’t wish to do so and know that the pressure of their constituency and radical rivals won’t allow it.

At minimum, they can only make the kind of deal that leaves the door open to a Round Two in which Palestinians and their allies could seek to wipe Israel off the map.

But Israel would never make a deal like that.

So the way out for them is a unilateral declaration of independence and international recognition. This new status could then be used as leverage to ignore Israel's demands. And if Israel reacts to this situation--say, by hitting back against cross-border terror attacks--the “independent state” of Palestine can then turn to its allies, sympathizers, and the UN to charge Israel with international aggression and provide military equipment.

Of course, this will probably never happen. It’s important to know that current U.S. policy opposes such a move. PA “president” Mahmoud Abbas, not the most reliable source, has claimed publicly that the U.S. government has promised to support the unilateral independence option if direct talks don’t work.

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