[Count to 10 again?] Netanyahu to continue freeze outside

Dr. Aaron Lerner
IMRA
05 July '10

Related article: [And then I count to 10] PM Netanyahu opts to invite D.C. pressure for continued freeze

[Dr. Aaron Lerner - IMRA: So in return for a noncommittal "hint" that Obama can simply explain later was not understood by Israel, PM Netanyahu is going to freeze construction beyond the settlement blocs. Actually "large" settlement blocs - not all "settlement blocs". So perhaps the definition of "large" could be another source for dispute, but that's not the point.

Two possibilities:

#1 Someone is in dire need of a chiropractor. When Netanyahu bent over and agreed to a freeze under pressure it only invited more pressure. And here we are, with President Obama facing the pressure of the mid-term elections that should make it possible for Israel to weather the storm, and it appears the Prime Minister Netanyahu is going to bend again. And this will, that's right, lead only to more pressure.

Count to 10.

#2. The freeze outside the large settlement blocs is not unilateral. It depends on the negotiations starting. And the offer is only on the table until the current freeze ends. Mahmoud Abbas climbed too high on the tree for this to be enough for him to use the limited freeze to justify direct talks. Netanyahu gets credit for the offer and earns an amorphous commitment by President Obama to the Bush letter and the freeze ends in September.

Problem with #2: We Israelis love to move the pieces on the board as if the other players are static. Talk with Ehud Barak for example, and he can go on at length as to how he will do a whole string of things maneuvering and manipulating the situation - all based on the assumption that the Arabs stand still. And in this case it is even more complicated. Here is an alternative scenario to consider:

(1) PM Netanyahu offers the limited freeze and has his Kodak moment at the White House and his staff briefs reporters later that the move was a fantastic success.

(2) Abbas rejects the offer as insufficient with the vocal support of the Saudis.

(3) Egypt flatly denies that they endorsed Netanyahu's offer - suggesting that Netanyahu's representatives didn't understand what they were told in Cairo.

(4) At the same time, it is clear that the move has not threatened the underlying stability of Netanyahu's ruling coalition.

(5) Obama's message to Netanyahu: your offer has been rejected. You can do a lot more and still remain in office. Make another offer.]

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PM may offer freeze extension
By BY HERB KEINON AND GIL HOFFMAN The Jerusalem Post 07/05/2010 01:46
www.jpost.com/Israel/Article.aspx?id=180435

Offer: Obama would accept Israeli control of large settlements.

President Barack Obama would hint at US acceptance of ultimate Israeli control over the major settlement blocs and Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu would indicate he would extend the settlement construction freeze in the West Bank in all areas outside of those blocs, according to ideas raised in Jerusalem as a way to move the diplomatic process forward, on the eve of the prime minister’s visit to Washington. (Continue reading)

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