Syria will not change; America may

Hanin Ghadar
NOW Lebanon
08 May '10
Posted before Shabbat

Since coming to office, US President Barack Obama has moved cautiously to improve relations with Syria, hoping that such a strategy would encourage Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to distance himself from Iran. This has not happened. In fact, the Syrian regime has continued to support Iran and its regional policies. Now Obama, as a warning, has decided to extend sanctions against Syria. The question is: “Does Damascus care?”

The extension of sanctions did not really surprise the Syrian regime. Its official and media reactions were mild given the significance of the move. Syria probably expected such a reaction after the SCUDs crisis; but it also wanted to send a message that it couldn’t care less, and that such sanctions would only jeopardize US-Syrian relations.

“The American administration made a mistake by sending such a message to Syria,” official state newspaper Al-Baath said, accusing Washington of being blinded by Israel, which “prevents it from seeing where its interests lie.”

So if extending sanctions is not in America’s interests, what is? Will Syria now seek shelter under Iran’s wing? Will it start robustly backing Hezbollah by increasing the supply of weapons to its armed wing?

The reality is that Syria is already there, and nothing will change. The Syrian regime will continue to prize its regional role, bolstered by its alliance with Tehran, over any improved relationship with regional and Western powers. Indeed, it is an alliance worth more to Syria than the removal of sanctions, and hence why Syria continues to show its support for Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas; support that recently reached dangerous levels when Syria was accused of supplying SCUD missiles to Hezbollah.

But it’s a case of shutting the stable door after the horse has bolted. Hezbollah has already built a huge arsenal since the 2006 July War with Israel, courtesy of Syria, despite UN Security Council Resolution 1701’s call for an arms embargo. Syria is merely acting out its side of an arrangement with Iran and Hezbollah.

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