When the Israeli public oppose deal 61%:26%, Haaretz has the creative answer

Dr. Aaron Lerner..
IMRA..
24 July '13..

The folks at Haaretz needed a poll showing that the public supports a peace agreement but they had a problem:

The moment that you actually say anything about the agreement, the public is overwhelmingly opposed.

That's what Maagar - Interdisciplinary Research and Consulting Institute Ltd., managed by Professor Yitzhak Katz found in a poll of 503 Israelis they carried out on 22 July for Channel 10.

In principle, are you for or against signing a full peace agreement with the Palestinians on the basis of the 1967 borders, including the exchange of territory and release of prisoners?
Total: For 29% Against 57% Other replies 14%

And it gets only worse when you spell it out even more:

Are you for or against signing a peace agreement with the Palestinians on the basis of the 1967 borders, including the evacuation of communities with the exception of settlement blocs, exchange of territory, Palestinians recognition of Israel as the state of the Jewish People, and release of Palestinians with "blood on their hands".
Total: For 26% Against 61% Other 13%

So here is the propaganda piece that Haaretz commissioned in a poll carried out 23 July - by Dialogue under the supervision of statistics professor and pollster Camil Fuchs of a representative sample of 511 adult Israelis (including Israeli Arabs). Published in Haaretz on 24 July 2013


Assume that the Prime Minister reaches an agreement with the Palestinians and brings it to a national referendum, would you support or oppose it?
Support 39% Think support 16% Think oppose 5% Oppose 20% Don’t know 20%

What's the problem with this question?

There are, no doubt, many respondents who were in the "plus column" who support Netanyahu and were thinking that, in the absence of information about the deal, that a deal that Netanyahu brings to a national referendum would have to be radically different than the kind of deal that the talking heads have been outlining for the last two decades. Take note the huge "Don't know" response.

The Haaretz poll is meaningless because if and when we reach the point that there is a national referendum the details of the deal will very much be the subject of considerable debate.

People aren't going to go blindly to the ballot box.

Sure, if Livni somehow manages to cut a deal with the Palestinians that involve Palestinian concessions of a magnitude beyond anyone's dreams (united Jerusalem under Israeli sovereignty, Jordan Valley, IDF control of airspace, Israeli control of all entry/exit of all goods and people, Israeli security access as Israel deems necessary when Israel deems necessary, continued Israeli control of Machpelah in Hebron, formal end to right of return, and much much more) then it might be able to pass in a national referendum.

But that's not a particularly relevant question.

Link: http://www.imra.org.il/story.php3?id=61585

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