IMRA Weekly Commentary..
08 November '12..
While it is far from clear if the PLO will ultimately go through with getting the UN to vote to upgrade the status of the Palestinian entity to that of a non-member state in the coming weeks, it would be a terrible mistake to only develop a response after the fact.
Some now are suggesting that Israel respond by freezing the transfer of taxes and duties Israel collects for the Palestinians but the consequences of putting the Palestinians into a financial crisis could be a double edged sword. The chaos that might follow would most certainly be exploited by Hamas and other radical elements seeking to take control of the West Bank.
Years ago the Israeli leadership was fairly straightforward about the immediate Israeli response to such a move: annexation of Area C (that includes all the Israeli communities) – with possibly the addition of some portions of Area B out of security and other pragmatic considerations.
This annexation is as much – if not more - a defensive measure as a punishment. It's a defensive measure because it serves to insure that Israel has a clear legal basis for its continued non-security activity in those areas.
Annexation would also preempt an escalating Palestinian campaign against the Israeli presence on the ground in Area C that can be expected to follow the UN vote.
What would be the relationship between Israel and this post-UN vote entity?
If the Palestinians insist that Oslo is over and that the security agreements no longer apply then we will have to come up with a solution to the formidable problem of the large Palestinian army in our backyard.
Under those circumstances we might try to shift our interaction with the Palestinians from a national to a regional-municipal level. For example, instead of transferring funds to a central Palestinian entity Israel could divvy it out to the municipalities, with funding for the local cops coming through the municipalities.
None of this will be easy.
But declining to take timely moves would only invite an even worse outcome.
Link: http://www.imra.org.il/story.php3?id=58901
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