IMRA Weekly Commentary..
11 October '12..
Many years ago, proponents of the withdrawal of Israel to the Green Line and establishment of a sovereign independent state felt that they could actually convince their countrymen that such a program would bring peace.
That was before the failed Oslo experiment.
Then they switched to the "demographic argument": withdrawal would not bring peace but not withdrawing would quickly lead to the end of a Jewish majority state.
But that was before the relative Arab-Jewish birthrates shifted causing a change in the population growth trend along with the retreat from the Gaza Strip. Some still try to palm off this argument by ignoring the growth figures and then using data for "between the Jordan and the Sea" to include the Gaza population in the figures, but it is still pretty much an argument for convincing the convinced.
The latest argument is that Israel must make a big sacrifice to the "withdrawal Moloch" if we want the world on our side regarding Iran.
This argument is grossly out of touch with the realpolitik that drives the world policymakers.
Simply put: Israel's significance in how the world deals or doesn't deal with nuclear Iran is a function of the extent to which it is believed Israel will independently act to stop a nuclear Iran – not how endangered the Jewish State is by Iranian nukes.
That's not to say that Israel’s survival isn't on the wish list of many policy makers. Just that there are a lot of things ahead on that list.
And it's not that the policymakers have to say "drop dead" to Israel. They just have to claim, as apparently Russia does, that Iran won't ever nuke Israel even if it had nuclear weapons.
Israeli policy advocates – and more importantly – policy makers – have to understand that when it comes to the decisions that the world will make about Iran, what Israel does or does not do vis-a-vis the Arab Israeli conflict will not have a crucial impact on the stands of the decision makers.
Again. Suicidal concessions by Israel won't determine how the world deals with Iran.
The interests of the world will determine how the world deals with Iran.
Link: http://www.imra.org.il/story.php3?id=58571
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