IMRA..
29 May '12..
Senior Israeli ministers, among them former COS Minister Moshe "Bogie" Ya'alon, who support the "quiet for quiet" policy towards Hamas according to which Israel will not respond to the importation or construction of essentially any weapons system by Hamas in the Gaza Strip as long as Hamas doesn't use it (a radical change from the rhetoric that if "balance breaking" weapons were deployed that Israel would respond [that's rhetoric because in practice Israel never actually specifically responded to a long series of "balance breaking" advances]) point to the decision of Hamas not to openly participate in attacks against Israel as some kind of evidence of Israel's deterrent strength.
As the excerpt below from a report of The Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center indicates, there is an alternative narrative: namely that Hamas isn't shooting now out of a "desire to buy time to build up its military might without interruption, and especially to improve its capabilities to hit the Israeli heartland with long-range rockets."
Consider this disturbing alternative interpretation: by the same token that Israeli officials can take comfort in the notion that Hamas is not shooting rockets at Israel because of Israel's "deterrent strength" can Hamas take comfort in the notion that Israel is not interfering with their massive weapons programs because of Hamas' deterrent strength?
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Hamas' restraint policy in the Gaza Strip: the results of the tension between Hamas' jihadist ideology and pragmatic considerations, which include governmental obligations and Israel's deterrent capabilities.
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The Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center (at the Israeli Intelligence and Heritage Commemoration Center)
http://www.terrorism-info.org.il/Data/articles/Art_20335/E_097_12_1901847935.pdf
Constraints and Considerations Influencing Hamas' Terrorist Attack Policy
...
3) Other considerations: ... Another consideration is Hamas' desire to buy time to build up its military might without interruption, and especially to improve its capabilities to hit the Israeli heartland with long-range rockets.
...
6. Since Operation Cast Lead the restraint policy has given Hamas and the other terrorist organizations breathing space to rebuild the Gaza Strip and accelerate their military buildup. One of the results is that since
Operation Cast Lead Hamas and the other terrorist organizations have doubled the number of rockets in their arsenals (most of them provided by Iran) and acquired higher-quality rockets. Currently Hamas and the other terrorist organizations in the Gaza Strip have several thousand rockets, both standard and of local manufacture, of varying ranges. Among them are Fajr-5 rockets provided by Iran (not yet used). They have a range of 75 kilometers, or 46.6 miles, and can reach Tel Aviv and the densely-populated areas in the center of Israel.
Link: http://www.imra.org.il/story.php3?id=56907
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