Commentary/Contentions
05 September '11
http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2011/09/05/palestinians-un-statehood-obama/
According to the New York Times, the Obama administration is going all out to try and bribe or cajole the Palestinian Authority into withdrawing its plan to ask the United Nations General Assembly to vote recognition of an independent Palestinian state. The United States, along with the diplomatic Quartet, intends to issue a new peace proposal favorable to the Palestinians in order to entice PA leader Mahmoud Abbas to step back from a confrontation in New York this month.
But this effort is based on a fundamental misreading of the Palestinians’ motivations for going to the UN. Abbas has pursued this tactic in order to avoid further negotiations with Israel–not get more diplomatic support from the West on settlements or borders. The administration also fails to understand that for all of the difficulties a U.S. veto of Palestinian statehood in the Security Council might entail for Washington, the decision to go to the UN poses a greater danger to Abbas and his Fatah Party than it does to the United States or Israel.
It is the Palestinians who stand to suffer the most from a measure they may have thought would benefit them.
The certain failure of a UN statehood initiative has set the stage for a vast outpouring of frustration when the Palestinians realize nothing has changed. This could seriously undermine the already tenuous legitimacy Abbas’ Fatah government possesses. Since the PA has established a false narrative that claims Palestinian attempts at conciliation with Israel were rejected — a palpable lie because it was Yasir Arafat who rejected Israeli offers of a Palestinian state in 2000 and 2001 and Abbas himself who did so in 2008 — the inevitable disappointment that will follow the UN vote will only strengthen the position of Fatah’s Hamas rivals. Though Israel and to a lesser extent the United States will take a beating in the court of international public opinion following a General Assembly vote, it is the PA that will suffer most.
The one party that would benefit from a post-September conflagration is Hamas. Under Hamas, Gaza has become the true face of Palestinian independence. Unlike Fatah in the West Bank, the terrorist group’s power is untrammeled. Though it retains the ability to launch terror attacks against Israel whenever it wants, Hamas represents a greater threat to the PA than to the Jewish state. The endgame of a third intifada will not be a Palestinian state or a reinvigorated peace process but a crippled Fatah that will be more dependent than ever on Israel and a strengthened Hamas.
That is why the PA has spent much of the summer hinting privately at their desire to avoid the confrontation in New York that they planned themselves. The problem for Abbas is the process he began is not so easily derailed. Abbas would clearly like to be able to find a way to avoid a diplomatic confrontation with the United States (and the possibility of a cutoff of American aid), but if the price of doing so is resuming negotiations with Israel, that will be just as problematic.
Seen in this light, rather than the U.S. seeking to bribe the Palestinians, it is Abbas who should be the supplicant. Though Israel will be battered in the UN debate, Abbas and Fatah are the biggest potential losers of this affair. The Obama administration should realize this and act accordingly.
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