Links and Updates: Terror Attacks cross Egypt- Israel Border. Many wounded and dead.

Love of the Land
18 August '11

The news continues to pour in of today's multiple terrorist attacks 20 kilometers north of Eilat. There was much confusion as the first accounts arrived close to 12:15 this afternoon, and as of 3:35 P.M. (Israel), there is still information that has not been cleared for publication. The Muqata has been live blogging as the information comes in and can be checked via the link below for updates.

The Muqata: Breaking News: Terror attack between Israel, Egptian Border

Also earlier today:

News Flash: New Phase in War as Terrorists Cross Egypt-Israel Border, Many Dead

http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin/2011/08/18/news-flash-new-phase-in-war-as-terrorists-cross-egypt-israel-border-many-dead/

Barry Rubin

This isn’t just another terrorist attack—it’s a major escalation, a new phase in the Arab-Israeli conflict, and it is the bitter fruit of the U.S.-backed downfall of the government of President Husni Mubarak in Egypt. And this might also turn out to be the first successful al-Qaida attack on Israeli territory.

The details are becoming clear but what’s most important strategically is that a group of terrorists—at least three of them—using at least one vehicle fired across the Egypt-Israel border and then crossed into Israeli territory. Their armaments included mortars, and an RPG as well as handguns. The terrorists may have originated in the Gaza Strip and travelled through Egypt.

Though the number is still not clear there are reports of up to six Israeli fatalities. At least 15 are wounded. The terrorists fired on vehicles—at least two buses and an auto–travelling on Israel’s highway 12 between Beersheva and Eilat. Soldiers engaged the terrorists in a firefight killing three. Several soldiers were wounded.

For more than 30 years the Egytian government ensured peace along the desolate border between the two countries. In the post-Mubarak phase–as I warned back in February–the successor regime is not so committed to the Egypt-Israel peace. Military discipline has slackened and terrorist groups are increasingly operating in the Sinai penninsula. A recent Egyptian operation was intended to clear out terrorists, some of whom are affiliated with al-Qaida, from north Sinai.

The initial phase was marked by virtually free smuggling of arms, weapons, and money into the Gaza Strip for the Hamas regime there. The Mubarak government, though its efforts were imperfect, kept the flow of munitions limited, making it harder for Hamas to renew full-scale warfare against Israel. Now, a new conflict could break out any time as Hamas is better-armed and more confident.

But while the media will no doubt attribute this attack to al-Qaida groups–and that might be accurate–this is far from the only problem. Hamas would no doubt cooperate with cross-border attacks on Israel from Egypt, as would the powerful Muslim Brotherhood which might well provide 30 to 40 percent of the members in the next parliament.

One should also remember the old strategy of the PLO in the late 1960s and in the 1970s: create waves of attacks on Israel’s borders, provoking Israeli retaliation and mass enthusiasm for war with Israel; then push Arab states into the war for what is hoped to be a full-scale showdown.

Have no doubt. This is not just an isolated incident but the opening of a new phase.It will get worse. At a minimum, Israel will have to devote a lot more of its limited resources to guarding the Egypt-Israel border. An important question is how decisively will the Egyptian military react and how supportive of the attack will Egyptian public opinion be. Given U.S. policy, nothing can be expected from Washington except words of dismay.

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