Hudson New York
12 August '11
http://www.hudson-ny.org/2343/palestinians-preparing-another-intifada
It is still not clear if the Palestinian Authority leadership will proceed with its plan to ask the UN in September to recognize a Palestinian state along the pre-1967 lines. But what is clear is that the Palestinian Authority leaders have recently been talking about the need to escalate "popular protests" against Israel.
Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas, who says he is opposed to an armed struggle mainly because it would be counterproductive and inefficient, has repeatedly voiced his full support for a "popular intifada" in the West Bank. Abbas would like to see more Palestinians joining weekly demonstrations against settlements and the security barrier. He and other Palestinians have expressed disappointment over the fact that the number of foreigners and Israeli Jews participating in the protests is higher than the number of Palestinians.
Palestinian Authority representatives would like to see the Palestinian masses march on Israeli military checkpoints and settlements after September, regardless of whether the statehood bid at the UN succeeds or not.
If the UN does vote in favor of the Palestinian state, the Palestinian Authority is hoping that tens of thousands of Palestinians would take to the streets to "celebrate" independence and demand a full Israeli withdrawal to the pre-1967 lines in compliance with the new resolution. And if the statehood bid fails for any reason, including a possible US veto, the Palestinian Authority still wants Palestinians to take to the streets to protest against the Americans and Israel.
Under both scenarios, clashes will erupt between Palestinians and the Israel Defense Force at checkpoints and entrances to settlements.
The "popular intifada" that the Palestinian Authority is seeking would then quickly deteriorate into an all-out confrontation similar to the one that erupted in September 2000. A popular uprising means that Palestinians would also be throwing stones and firebombs at soldiers and settlers. It means that Palestinians could get killed if the lives of soldiers or settlers are in danger.
The road from there to the resumption of Palestinian terror attacks is very short. Fatah still has many militiamen who are ready to open fire "to defend Palestinians against Israeli aggression." The Palestinian security forces could also join the fight against Israel once things get out of control.
Then there is Hamas in the Gaza Strip, which is saying that only the armed struggle, and not the UN, will bring the Palestinians a state. Hamas has even mocked at the Palestinian Authority's talk about a peaceful and unarmed intifada against Israel.
In any case, both the Palestinian Authority and Hamas will blame Israel and the US for the next cycle of violence, as they have always done in the past. Israel will be blamed for refusing to accept all Palestinian demands, especially the territorial ones. The US, on the other hand, will be blamed for siding with Israel and thwarting Palestinian efforts to achieve a state.
The only way to avoid such grim scenarios is by making clear to the Palestinian Authority that its statehood bid, which does not even seem to enjoy the support of many Palestinians for various reasons, could plunge the region into a new round of violence and bloodshed. The Palestinian Authority needs to understand that it is taking a big gamble by embarking on this adventure.
A new intifada will not only harm Israel, but also the Palestinian Authority and its leaders. The second intifada, which erupted in 2000, undermined the Palestinian Authority and resulted in the destruction of most of its institutions and security forces. The Palestinian Authority could now be digging its own grave by encouraging Palestinians to launch a new intifada.
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I would like to assume that the Israeli security apparatus' are monitoring the situation in the Palestinian areas and are advising the IDF and the government accordingly.
ReplyDeleteOf course there are many possible scenarios that may play out following Palestinian declaration of statehood in the UN. There certainly maybe a series of coordinated and extremely violent mass Palestinian assaults on the settlements and the various road blocks in the area of the Green Line, an entirely peaceful and statesmanlike proclamation of Palestinian statehood with mass Palestinian celebrations, speeches, fireworks, and festive meals, or some violence along with peaceful celebrations, or some combination of the above.
The situation may be as dire as it appears with the Palestinian leadership calls for all out physical and armed attacks by Palestinians on Israel, Israeli settlements, and even attacks on Israeli civilians, in short, another and worse so called Intifada.
Or due to the real improvement in the Palestinian social and economic situation in Judea and Samaria, it is just as likely that calls by the PA leadership to disrupt this rather pleasant and steadily improving state of affairs will go largely unheeded.
Finally and most importantly, the Israeli government must make crystal clear to the Palestinian leadership and public that serious physical and armed violence against Israeli settlements, roadblocks, or citizens will be met with a crushing and certainly lethal IDF and Israeli Police response. Furthermore, the Israeli government must reassure the Israelis living in the settlements that they are going to be fully protected and will be allowed to protect themselves with fire arms from Palestinian attacks without fear of legal indictment or trial.
The American government has a significant role to play in moderating any possible Palestinian reactions to this upcoming declaration of Palestinian statehood. Certainly the US government should insure that the Palestinian leadership understands that effective and painful diplomatic and economic sanctions will indeed be imposed on the Palestinians immediately should the Palestinian's call for and carry out physical and armed confrontations with Israelis or the IDF.
The last thing Israel, the Palestinians, the Americans, and the Middle East needs or should stand for is another outburst of nihilistic Palestinian violence, attacks, and economic instability.
Certainly should this Palestinian desire for war and bloodshed once again occur, Israel and Israelis will suffer, but the Palestinians will suffer far more and for far longer.