Breathlessy Awaiting Gaza Part ll

Love of the Land
19 August '11

Six years ago, this week, between 15th of August 2005 - 22nd of August 2005, the forcible evacuation of the Gush Katif settlements took place, leaving in ruins the once vibrant communities of it's almost 9,000 residents.

In the prior year, 2004, Maj.-Gen. (res.) Yaakov Amidror and David Keyes, wrote an assessment entitled "Will a Gaza "Hamas-stan" Become a Future Al-Qaeda Sanctuary" exploring the ramifications of the abandonment of Gaza. While worth reading in full, a few keynote points from the introduction, may say it all.

- In light of Israel's planned disengagement from Gaza, to take place in 2005, and the termination of Yasser Arafat's hold on power, the eventual take-over of the Gaza Strip by Hamas certainly cannot be ruled out. Would a Gaza "Hamas-stan" become another al-Qaeda sanctuary in the future? In the past, al-Qaeda sought to establish itself wherever there was a security vacuum - in remote mountain areas or in economically weak, failed states. Would a security vacuum in a post-withdrawal Gaza facilitate al-Qaeda's entry there?

- To prevent a safe haven for terrorism from emerging in Gaza, Israel must maintain control over the strategic envelope around Gaza even after its disengagement, particularly air, land, and sea access to the territory, though Israel will face enormous international pressure to ease its grip as a gesture to a post-Arafat regime.

- Similarly, Western powers may seek to limit Israel's freedom of movement to re-enter Gaza, should security conditions deteriorate (i.e., an increase in Kassam rocket attacks on Israel). Ironically, by seeking to neutralize Israeli military power, Western states would help create the very sort of security vacuum in Gaza that al-Qaeda requires in order to establish a new sanctuary.

Six years later, we have before us an attempt by Mahmoud Abbas and the Palestinian Authority to create via the UN, a ..... , well that's really the question. One who wishes to apply the above 3 points, from Amidror and Keys assessment in 2004, will not have great difficulty in understanding what the future holds in store.

But in the meantime the world breathlessly awaits.

A thank you to P. David Hornik for bringing the Amidror/Keys article to my attention.


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