IMRA
26 June '11
The following is a reasonable prediction of what will happen after Gilad Shalit is released in a huge trade:
1. Every terrorist group and even freelancers make absolutely every effort to grab someone to replace Shalit.
2. The country is on high alert due to intelligence reports of plans to kidnap another soldier.
3. Many of the attempts are foiled.
4. Thursday is a nightmare for both soldiers and their families as soldiers make their way home for the weekend from their bases. Ditto for Sunday as soldier return. In both instances the roads are clogged with the cars of parents who opted to transport their children themselves rather than rely on public transportation.
5. Within a relatively short period, a soldier is dragged off the streets of Israel but the terrorists kill the soldier because they find that they are unable to hide him.
6. Ultimately one of the kidnappings succeeds when a soldier dragged off the streets reaches Gaza after being smuggled out to Egypt – all this before it is even certain that a soldier is actually missing.
7. The IDF carries out various attacks but since Israeli intelligence is clueless as to where the soldier is being held and since Israel wants to avoid condemnation at this time for a massive operation, most efforts to gain the release of the captured soldier are diplomatic and via PR.
8. The country is depressed, frustrated and there are articles in the paper that many families with children slated to enter the IDF are seeking ways to keep their kids out of the army.
9. There are calls to meet the demands of the terrorists to gain the release of the new kidnapped soldier.
10. Some former senior defense-intelligence officials issue a call to release all terrorists now being held by Israel once they have been interrogated for information so that there is no longer any reason for the terrorists to kidnap Israelis.
11. Under the banner “Peace Now: For the safety of our soldiers” former senior defense-intelligence officials issue a call for Israel to make every and any conciliation required to reach a final status agreement with the Palestinians.
The above series of events might not transpire, but the odds that they do are magnitudes greater than optimistic scenarios.
The former senior defense-intelligence officials who assert that Israel knows how to deal with security threats are correct. There will be security alerts, etc. but none of these activities will stop the kidnapping from taking place with every terrorist group and even freelancers making absolutely every effort to grab someone to replace Shalit.
Now that’s not to say that the recommendation of the former senior defense-intelligence officials who are pushing for Israel to carry out the trade aren’t right.
Its just that they should have the intellectual honesty to concede where we may find ourselves after the deal.
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Its never going to happen. Hamas sees no reason to give up such a valuable trophy. Tormenting the Jews is worth more than getting back a lot of imprisoned terrorists, whose real value expires as soon they're released. Shalit in contrast stays in the headlines for years while freed Hamasniks appear maybe for a day or two. Shalit's propaganda value and emotional resonance is significant. They can watch Shalit's family do their dirty work of undermining Israel and sowing divisions in its body politic for them. If it hasn't already happened, it won't happen in the foreseeable future.
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