The Future of Jordan

Khaled Abu Toameh
Hudson New York
08 February '11

http://www.hudson-ny.org/1870/future-of-jordan

Jordan's King Abdullah II has good reason to be worried about the future of the monarchy in the Hashemite Kingdom. If he fails to implement real political and economic reforms, Jordan could easily fall into the hands of the Muslim Brotherhood group or turn into a Palestinian state.

Last week, in an attempt to contain public anger, the king, in a wise move, sacked the government of Prime Minister Samir Rifai. But the king's choice for a new prime minister, Marouf al-Bakhit, has not been equally wise.

Al-Bakhit, a former prime minister and ambassador to Israel, does not seem to be accepted by most of the Jordanian opposition parties, including Muslim Brotherhood.

Even more troubling for the monarch is the fact that many of the kingdom's tribes, which make up nearly 40% of the population, do not see the appointment of the new prime minister as a step in the right direction. I is hard to see how the king would be able to survive without the support of these tribes, which have long been supportive of the royal family in Amman.

In an unprecedented move, leaders of several Jordanian tribes this week issued a strong warning that the kingdom could plunge into anarchy if the king did not move quickly to combat financial and administrative corruption.

"The Tunisian and Egyptian hurricane will come to Jordan, sooner or later," said a statement signed by 36 tribe leaders. "We express regret over the fact that the regime has surrounded itself with a group of corrupt commercial partners. Jordan is suffering from a regime and government crisis, as well as a crisis of corruption."

The statement is seen a huge challenge to King Abdullah II: these tribes have always been known for their blind and unwavering devotion to the royal family. Some Jordanians fear that radical Muslims have managed to "infiltrate" many tribes, inciting them against the monarch and turning them into a tool in the hands of the Muslim Brotherhood.

But the tribes' discontent with the monarchy is not the only challenge. The king also needs to be worried about the "Palestinian problem" in his kingdom.

Millions of Palestinians living in the kingdom also pose a threat to the king. Many of these Palestinians live in harsh and inhumane conditions in refugee camps on the outskirts of the Jordanian capital of Amman.

Poverty and deprivation have driven many of these Palestinians into the open arms of Hamas and Muslim Brotherhood – two groups that would like to see an Islamic "caliphate" replace the royal family.

If the Palestinians revolt and bring down the monarchy, Jordan could become a Palestinian state. The Palestinians, under such circumstances, would end up with three states: one in the West Bank, a second in the Gaza Strip and a third in Jordan.

King Abdullah II needs to wake up before it is too late.

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