Deep freeze now or Mideast meltdown later

Jeff Daube
Guest Post/JPost
15 December '10

The freeze deal has failed, and negotiations have broken down. This could be a good thing.

A freeze is still very much in order for Israel, only not the Obama construction kind. Rather, an absolute halt to all negotiations, direct or indirect, on the runaway concessions train of the last 17 years.

And Israel must not for a moment contemplate resumption, despite the inevitable pressure barrage, until it completes a systematic reevaluation of its foreign policy and security needs. Think of it as the Israeli version of the United States' NIE (National Intelligence Estimate). A National Israel Evaluation, if you will.

The realities are undeniable - albeit too grim or inconvenient for Israel's leadership, it seems, which has yet to develop a coherent and visionary plan to address all of the big picture concerns.

The new holistic approach would examine the fundamental problems more broadly and deeply than ever before. I propose nine to start.

1. Uncertain outcomes and relationships.

The international reactions to the prejudicial Goldstone Report and incendiary Gaza flotilla, each time catching Israel unawares on the acceptability of defensive action, were tough reminders that we must factor in worst case, not just best case, scenarios.

Moreover, friendly nations can and often do turn ambivalent or openly hostile, as is the situation today with Iran and Turkey, once fairly dependable Israeli allies who have joined forces against it. The changing attitudes among US presidents alone should make Israel wary - from unfriendly Carter to friendlier Reagan and Bush II (1st term), to tepid Bush II (2nd term), and now aggressive Obama.

(Read full "Deep freeze now or Mideast meltdown later")

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