Fresnozionism.org
05 August '10
Recent events make it clear that a war on Israel’s northern border could break out at any time. Hizballah’s capabilities are far ahead of what they were in 2006, and while the IDF has worked assiduously to develop answers to its threats, nobody thinks that the inevitable war will be cheap, either for the IDF or for Israeli civilians who will be the target of Hizballah’s rockets.
In 2006, the Bush Administration saw the destruction of Hizballah — an Iranian proxy, destabilizing force in the Mideast and nexus of international terrorism — as in the interest of the US. So, at least for the first few weeks, it did not intervene to rein in Israel. After that, US officials either realized that the Olmert government was incompetent and the IDF unready, or they were influenced by Hizballah propaganda about civilian casualties in Lebanon, or both. At this point the war was brought to a close by the toothless UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which Hizballah has openly flouted ever since.
The US response to the next round, therefore, will be supremely important. If Israel suffers a large amount of damage and/or casualties in a war which is again forced to an inconclusive end, Israel’s deterrence posture will be severely weakened, not to mention her economy, morale, etc.
Hizballah knows this and we can expect that the propaganda techniques that were used in 2006, refined by Hamas in 2008-9 and deployed yet again in the Flotilla affair, will make their appearance again.
But a great deal depends on how the US perceives its interests. And given the powers in ascendancy in the Obama administration, it doesn’t look good. Dan Kurtzer is a former ambassador to Egypt and Israel, and a close adviser to the president on Middle East issues. Here is how he evaluates American interests:
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