Walid Phares
Counter-terrorism Blog
24 May '10
Today is the 10th anniversary of the Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, from what was known then as a "security zone." That geographically limited event has had significant strategic consequences since 2000. A decade after Counter Terrorism and Middle East experts are looking again at the circumstances and effect of that move on today's Hezbollah's expansion and widening arsenal.
During that winter-spring of 2000, discussions were underway at the UN by Lebanese NGOs to enable southern Lebanon to maintain its own local force under international auspices to replace the Israeli forces, which were potentially to withdraw from the area. The idea was to provide protection to the populations of the borders areas from an advance by Hezbollah all the way to the international demarcation lines. Such takeover by the Jihadist militia was expected to provoke an exodus by thousands of civilians who would have been subjected to Hezbollah's persecution. However suddenly on May 23, the Israeli Government then under Prime Minister Ehud Barak ordered a quick pull out from the security zone without waiting for the local force, at the time known as 'South Lebanon Army' (SLA) to be transferred under the United Nations or to operate as a local force to stop Hezbollah until the UN would decide what to do.
The population of the "security zone" was about 150,000 counting the district of Jezzine; and its local forces were about 3,000 strong. the make up of the population was Christian, Shia and Druse with some Sunni villages to the East. To their north Hezbollah had massed its forces backed by Iranian Pasdaran advisors. Between 1984 and 2000 Hezbollah launched several offensives against the SLA positions but was unable to overrun them permanently.
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